Biden has key advantages in final stretch but don’t count Trump out

US Democratic nominee Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in polls, fundraising and early voting turnout in the 2020 election.

But if the presidential vote in 2016 is any indication, the 13 final days of the campaign could still prove consequential for the race and in resurrecting Mr Trump’s chances.

So far, Mr Biden has held a 10-point average advantage in national polls, data site FiveThirtyEight shows.

He leads in 10 of 13 battleground states that will decide the outcome.

Mr Biden also has nearly triple the amount of cash on hand to spend in October, with $177 million compared to Mr Trump’s $63m.

But despite these advantages, pollsters say Mr Biden does not have the presidency in the bag and 13 days is still enough time for a big surprise to change the outcome.

John Zogby, founder and director of data firm John Zogby Strategies, describes the race as competitive, with enough time for Mr Trump to change the outcome.

"In 13 days anything can happen," Mr Zogby told The National.

"Joe Biden has advantage but four years ago to this minute, I would have told you Hillary Clinton had the advantage."

Ms Clinton was ahead in most polling then, but a letter from former FBI director James Comey on October 28 about her emails may have cost her and the Democrats the election.

Mr Biden is faring better than Ms Clinton in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan.

Unlike the former secretary of state, he has hit the 50 per cent margin in Wisconsin, which she lost in 2016.

“The battleground states give slight advantage to Joe Biden but they are not ready to tip the scales yet,” Mr Zogby said.

His national polling gives Mr Biden only a two-point advantage over Mr Trump (49-47), but he says a high turnout and low number of undecided voters is probably a positive sign for the Democrats.

“We do see Democrats turning out in high numbers to vote early," Mr Zogby said.

"There isn’t the reticence on the part of those key parts of the Obama coalition – younger voters, African Americans, especially men – who didn’t come out in strong numbers for Ms Clinton."

More than 40 million Americans have voted early, and long lines across swing states were reported, which probably bodes well for Democrats.

A high turnout among young and black voters is good news for Mr Biden to restore the Obama coalition that showed cracks in 2016, Mr Zogby said.

A low number of undecided voters, only 3 per cent, is also encouraging for Democrats.

But Mr Zogby gives Mr Trump credit for appealing to his base.

“Donald Trump has been able to excite Republicans with the Supreme Court nomination, portraying Democrats as socialists, he is trying to appeal to rural, older, and in some cases racist voters.”

Tipping point states

Mr Zogby said North Carolina would be the tipping-point state.

Mr Biden is slightly ahead of Mr Trump in southern state, which the Democrats lost in 2016.

“If Mr Biden wins there, the black vote is determinant," Mr Zogby said.

"If he wins in North Carolina, he may win in Georgia and he would win in Michigan and Wisconsin.”

But Douglas Schwartz, the associate vice president and director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said Florida was the state to watch on November 3.

“Some of the other states that would have been the tipping point, maybe like Pennsylvania, they start counting their mail in ballots that day and the process could take several days,” Mr Schwartz said.

"Florida could be key because if Joe Biden wins Florida, everyone agrees that he wins the election.

"If he doesn’t win Florida then it could be a long night or even week."

Mr Schwartz defended polls data after what were considered to be misguided figures in 2016.

“There is a misperception of how a winner is determined in the election [by electoral college and not popular vote],” he said.

“Hillary Clinton won more votes nationally, as the polling said."

Mr Schwartz agreed that a higher turnout and fewer undecided voters helped Mr Biden.

But he warned that it was not always predictable.

“We don’t know if we will see dramatic events," Mr Schwartz said.  "It is human behaviour you can never know for sure."