The Foresight tool is predicting Covid will displace over a million Africans. AFP
The Foresight tool is predicting Covid will displace over a million Africans. AFP
The Foresight tool is predicting Covid will displace over a million Africans. AFP
The Foresight tool is predicting Covid will displace over a million Africans. AFP

World

New tool predicts coronavirus will displace millions of Africans

Chaos in the Sahel to shift to a new level as pandemic takes hold

Tim Kiek

August 12, 2020

  • English
  • Arabic

A new tool has predicted the displacement of over a million people in the Sahel, as Covid-19 creates havoc across the brittle region.

In some countries, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria, the pandemic is expected to increase forced displacement by more than 14 percentage points.

This is the equivalent of a minimum of an additional one million people being displaced across the four countries if no action is taken.

And figures from the UN Refugee Agency show that at the end of 2019, global displacement had surged to nearly 80 million people - a precipitous rise from the start of the century.

Developed by the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) with funding from the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Foresight tool has already been deployed in both Myanmar and Afghanistan to predict upcoming humanitarian aid needs for crisis hit regions.

If the scenario modelling proves accurate, then humanitarian relief agencies will have been afforded precious precision time to establish plans of action and mitigation measures.

The tool analyses a range of factors, from economic and governmental through to environmental and stability, to formulate its predictions. It draws on World Bank, UN and other publicly available data sources to do so.

“The first real-life tests in Afghanistan and Myanmar confirm that the Foresight tool forecasts displacement with a safety margin of as little as +/- 10 per cent,” said Anders Tharsgaard, DRC’s head of business engagement.

Data shows that Covid-19 increases unemployment, lowers economic growth and weakens governance in several countries.

Based on the Foresight analysis of data for four countries there is also a quantifiable increased risk of large-scale displacement in countries hit by war, famine and natural disasters.

Venezuelan migrants huge each other as they line up outside the Bogota's northern bus terminal to buy bus tickets to get to the border and return to their country due to the novel coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Venezuelan migrants huge each other as they line up outside the Bogota's northern bus terminal to buy bus tickets to get to the border and return to their country due to the novel coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Venezuelan migrants line up to be vaccinated by Bogota's Mayor health personnel in front of an encampment where jobless and homeless migrants are camping during the coronavirus pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Venezuelan migrants line up to be vaccinated by Bogota's Mayor health personnel in front of an encampment where jobless and homeless migrants are camping during the coronavirus pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Arelvis Perez, a Venezuelan migrant from Menegrande, Zulia state, who worked as seamstress in a manufacturing company in Bogota for a year, remains at her tent with her grandmother and her daughters Marly and Ashly at en encampment where jobless and homeless migrants are camping during the coronavirus pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Arelvis Perez, a Venezuelan migrant from Menegrande, Zulia state, who worked as seamstress in a manufacturing company in Bogota for a year, remains at her tent with her grandmother and her daughters Marly and Ashly at en encampment where jobless and homeless migrants are camping during the coronavirus pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Jobless and homeless Venezuelan migrants camp during the coronavirus pandemicin Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Jobless and homeless Venezuelan migrants camp during the coronavirus pandemicin Bogota, Colombia. Getty Images
Hundreds of people from various African countries are gathered on the streets as they are evicted from the makeshift camp they are occupying around the Central Methodist Mission in Cape Town in South Africa. AFP
Hundreds of people from various African countries are gathered on the streets as they are evicted from the makeshift camp they are occupying around the Central Methodist Mission in Cape Town in South Africa. AFP
Migrants from sub-Saharan African countries who arrived on the island of Lesbos remain in quarantine in an open space designated by the Greek authorities, on the island of Lesbos, as Greece tries to control the spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19. AFP
Migrants from sub-Saharan African countries who arrived on the island of Lesbos remain in quarantine in an open space designated by the Greek authorities, on the island of Lesbos, as Greece tries to control the spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19. AFP
A migrant is seen outside his makeshift house at a camp in La Penita, Darien province, Panama. Thousands of migrants, mostly Haitians and Africans seeking to reach the US, remain in camps in the provinces of Darien and Chiriqui. AFP
A migrant is seen outside his makeshift house at a camp in La Penita, Darien province, Panama. Thousands of migrants, mostly Haitians and Africans seeking to reach the US, remain in camps in the provinces of Darien and Chiriqui. AFP
A toddler is seen with her mother in a tent at a camp in La Penita, Darien province, Panama, where hundreds of migrants remain amid the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. AFP
A toddler is seen with her mother in a tent at a camp in La Penita, Darien province, Panama, where hundreds of migrants remain amid the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. AFP
A boy sits by his 16-days old sister as refugee families camp at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. Around 100 mostly Afghan refugees have been camping in a square in recent days under temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) after arriving from island's camps. AFP
A boy sits by his 16-days old sister as refugee families camp at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. Around 100 mostly Afghan refugees have been camping in a square in recent days under temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) after arriving from island's camps. AFP
Refugee families sleep at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. AFP
Refugee families sleep at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. AFP
A woman wearing a protective mask walks past refugee families sitting by their belongings at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. AFP
A woman wearing a protective mask walks past refugee families sitting by their belongings at Victoria square in central Athens, Greece. AFP
A Rohingya refugee people walks on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
A Rohingya refugee people walks on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
Rohingya refugee children pose for pictures on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
Rohingya refugee children pose for pictures on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
Rohingya refugee children play on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
Rohingya refugee children play on a road along the makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
A general view shows a Rohingya refugee makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA
A general view shows a Rohingya refugee makeshift camp in Ukhia, Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh. EPA

DRC is now expected to roll-out the tool in the 40 countries in which it is active.

“We expect the Foresight project to help us secure better protection of refugees and displaced people," said DRC Secretary General, Charlotte Slente.

Ms Siente added that it will also help "to prevent displacement and humanitarian needs generally,"

Key recommendations
  • Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
  • Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
  • Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
  • More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
While you're here
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ahmed Raza

UAE cricket captain

Age: 31

Born: Sharjah

Role: Left-arm spinner

One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95

T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The national orchestra
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
World Mental Health Day
War on waste
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Red flags
  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
  • Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
  • Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.

Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

While you're here
BMW M5 specs

Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

Power: 727hp

Torque: 1,000Nm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh650,000

KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Libya's Gold

UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves. 

The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.

Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.

On Women's Day
Our commentary on Brexit
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
You might also like
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Company Profile:

Name: The Protein Bakeshop

Date of start: 2013

Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani

Based: Dubai

Size, number of employees: 12

Funding/investors:  $400,000 (2018) 

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
  • Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
  • Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
  • The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
  • Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
  • It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
  • Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
  • Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
Results

5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m, Winner: ES Rubban, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: Al Mobher, Sczcepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Jabalini, Tadhg O’Shea, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: AF Abahe, Tadgh O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: AF Makerah, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Law Of Peace, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar

Mountain%20Boy
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zainab%20Shaheen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Naser%20Al%20Messabi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tell Me Who I Am

Director: Ed Perkins

Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis

Four stars

Results

6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m | Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)

7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Al Shamkhah, Royston Ffrench, Sandeep Jadhav

7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m | Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar

8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m | Winner: Kawasir, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi

8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m | Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar

10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m | Winner: Quartier Francais, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe

 

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

Coronavirus