An obscure Iraqi militant group released footage on October 28 claiming to show testing of a $5 million Russian made TOS-1 Buratino rocket launcher in the desert near Mosul.
The system is capable of flattening entire city blocks and, if true, would mark a major upgrade to the Katyusha-style rocket launchers that Iran-backed militias have fired at US troops and the embassy in recent months.
The video was made by a group calling itself Ashab Al Kahf (people of the cave) a staunchly anti-American group that appeared seemingly from nowhere in August 2019, later claiming attacks on convoys supplying US forces.
In an interview with Flashpoint Intelligence consultancy in August, the group claims to be acting alone, rather than at the direction of Iran.
But Iraqi security analyst Hamdi Malik suggested the system shown in the video was not a TOS-1 and said the group had simply made an inflated claim.
He said the video appears to show a powerful piece of Iranian-made rocket artillery of the kind Iran-backed groups have already used to kill US soldiers in recent years.
But this does not mean the claim is not central to the power struggle between Iran and the US playing out in Iraq.
The continued supply of Iran-made weapons is a dangerous strategy that could lead to direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
The suggestion is that Ashab Al Kahf has not only acted with Iranian support, contrary to their claim, but also with the tacit support of pro-Iran groups in Iraq, including the Badr Organisation, which forms part of the second-largest bloc in parliament.
The Badr Organisation is one of the most powerful units in Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) a collection of militias ostensibly linked to the Iraqi government, although many answer to Iran.
Badr Organisation leader Hadi Al Amiri has tried to distance himself from militias like Ashab Al Kahf.
Mr Al Amiri recently condemned groups who were firing rockets at the US embassy and had attacked a British diplomatic convoy.
In October, Kataib Hezbollah, a militia at the vanguard of Iran-backed Iraqi groups, pledged it would end attacks on US interests in Iraq on condition that Washington presented a timetable for withdrawal. Since then, the near weekly attacks on the US embassy and bases housing US troops have ceased.
But despite this pledge, and leaders like Mr Al Amiri condemning such action, the acquisition of skills by groups such as Ashab Al Kahf is part of Iran’s near two-decade attempt to confuse the situation in Iraq, experts say.
Sowing confusion
Michael Knights, an expert on Iraqi security issues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says Iran has co-ordinated with its allies in Iraq to create confusion about its activities, from attacks on foreign forces to the movement of equipment into Syria.
“Cultivating confusion over the identity and sponsorship of militant cells is very useful for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It allows groups like Ashab Al Kahf to pretend they are Iraqi nationalist groups, instead of extensions of a foreign intelligence service.
"It means if they make mistakes, such as killing civilians in rocket or bomb attacks, the brand can easily be discarded,” Mr Knights said.
Ashab Al Kahf, he said, could well carry out attacks on diplomats.
“If Ashab kills protest leaders or diplomats, other militia can distance from it,” Mr Knights said.
Politicians or warlords?
The strategy of sowing confusion around its activities in Iraq is an approach adopted by Tehran since 2003.
But because Washington is no longer convinced by this ruse, it is high risk.
PMF-linked groups like the Badr Organisation fit this strategy. Part political party, part militia, after 2003 the group infiltrated Iraq’s security apparatus, in particular, the US-trained and equipped police.
The message is, we can drive around with this launcher system and do these test fires and there's nothing you can do about it
The organisation later presented itself as having a political focus. In 2011, Mr Al Amiri visited Washington, even visiting the Oval Office as part of a larger delegation.
“Badr wants to continue this double role that it's playing, benefiting from US support to the economy, and at the same time advancing Iran’s influence in Iraq,” Mr Malik said.
But since the war with ISIS, it has cultivated expertise in rocket artillery, a skill previously mastered by Kataib Hezbollah, a notorious PMF group that has been accused of a wide range of human rights abuses, as well as lethal attacks on US and Iraqi soldiers.
Kataib Hezbollah was once a little-known fringe group in the web of Iran-backed militias until its lethal strikes against the US brought it a level of notoriety. Now, it sits atop that web as one of the most powerful and aggressive factions but is less able to operate in the shadows given the level of scrutiny its actions have brought.
A sudden escalation
Trying to obscure the links between more official, state-linked groups such as the Badr Organisation and Ashab Al Kahf is risky for Iran.
Last December, an Iraqi-American contractor was killed in a PMF rocket attack on an Iraqi-US army base in northern Iraq, after dozens of similar attacks, many of which used rocket systems of Iranian origin, according to Alex Almeida, Iraq security analyst at energy consultancy Horizon Client Access.
The US retaliated against Kataib Hezbollah with heavy air strikes, killing 25 of the group.
Kataib Hezbollah’s commander, and de facto PMF head, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandes, along with high-profile Iranian Gen Qassem Suleimani, did not survive the ensuing violence. Both were killed in a US drone strike on January 3, near Baghdad airport.
Surviving leaders of Kataib Hezbollah accused Iraqi PM Mustafa Al Kadhimi of complicity in the attack, through his former role as director of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service.
For Mr Al Amiri, the deaths of Muhandes and Suleimani was a loss of two close friends.
But within days of the drone attack, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Iraqi-US bases, injuring at least 100 soldiers and bringing the two nations to the brink of war.
This is not the first time Kataib Hezbollah has pushed US patience to the brink.
In 2011, the group fired volleys of 240mm rockets – similar in size to the kind of projectiles fired by the TOS-1, at US forces as they prepared to leave Iraq.
Fifteen American soldiers perished in the attacks within the space of a month.
Since then, Iran has continued to funnel similar weaponry to its proxies, according to Mr Almeida.
“Iran has been flowing material covertly to Kataib Hezbollah for a couple of years now. They store that stuff at the big Kataib Hezbollah complex in Jurf Al Sakhr,” said Mr Almeida, referring to a town brutally cleared of civilians by the group in 2014.
Even though a dizzying array of groups appear, all with similar but slightly differing anti-American agendas, they almost all – the experts say – link back to Badr Organisation or Kataib Hezbollah.
Kataib Hezbollah and its PMF allies are determined to seek revenge for Muhandes’ death, while Mr Al Amiri has claimed that US forces must be made to leave through legal means, after a parliamentary vote to remove them.
“Iran has always been playing a dangerous game in Iraq, killing hundreds of US soldiers when America had more than 160,000 men in the country. But Iran and its proxies have greatly benefited, and still benefit from this strategy,” Mr Malik said.
But it appears that the actual threat by the US to withdraw caused concern among Iran-backed groups.
Mr Malik said that the US threat to close its embassy in Baghdad in September caused brief concern in the Badr Organisation and Kataib Hezbollah, because it risked eliminating any leverage the groups have to threaten the US.
Unpicking a tangled web
Iraq’s new prime minister, Mr Al Kadhimi, has attempted to reform the state in incremental steps while preparing for elections to meet the demands of tens of thousands of youth who protested across the south and the capital since last October.
One of the key challenges he faces, however, is what to do about the powerful militias over which he has only nominal control.
“The best countermeasure to these blurring tactics is to publicise the people, their real names and the locations, bank accounts and phone numbers that tie these fake movements to real targets, which can then be linked to Kataib Hezbollah and Iran,” Mr Knights said.
That would be a tough task for Mr Al Kadhimi, according to Mr Almeida. Regardless of the weapon system used by Ashab Al Kahf, the message was defiance.
The group’s message, Mr Almeida said, was that “we can drive around with this launcher system and do these test fires and there’s nothing you can do about it”.
For now, Ashab Al Kahf remains an obscure group with an unclear link to Iran.
Their video of the test firing might indicate that the group now occupies the ground Kataib Hezbollah once did, when it went from an obscure group to the main reason the US and Iran were brought to the brink of war.
Arctic Monkeys
Tranquillity Base Hotel Casino (Domino)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Porsche Macan T: The Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec
Top speed: 232kph
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
On sale: May or June
Price: From Dh259,900
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Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
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Fixtures and results:
Wed, Aug 29:
- Malaysia bt Hong Kong by 3 wickets
- Oman bt Nepal by 7 wickets
- UAE bt Singapore by 215 runs
Thu, Aug 30: UAE v Nepal; Hong Kong v Singapore; Malaysia v Oman
Sat, Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong; Oman v Singapore; Malaysia v Nepal
Sun, Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman; Malaysia v UAE; Nepal v Singapore
Tue, Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore; UAE v Oman; Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu, Sep 6: Final
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
New schools in Dubai
Company%20Profile
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Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
The five types of long-term residential visas
Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:
Investors:
A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.
Entrepreneurs:
A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.
Specialists
Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.
Outstanding students:
A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university.
Retirees:
Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
World Sevens Series standing after Dubai
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Five healthy carbs and how to eat them
Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand
Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat
Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar
Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices
Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants
Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique
More coverage from the Future Forum
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Tenet
Director: Christopher Nolan
Stars: John David Washington, Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debicki, Dimple Kapadia, Michael Caine, Kenneth Branagh
Rating: 5/5
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Your Guide to the Home
- Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
- Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
- Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Mountain Classification Tour de France after Stage 8 on Saturday:
- 1. Lilian Calmejane (France / Direct Energie) 11
- 2. Fabio Aru (Italy / Astana) 10
- 3. Daniel Martin (Ireland / Quick-Step) 8
- 4. Robert Gesink (Netherlands / LottoNL) 8
- 5. Warren Barguil (France / Sunweb) 7
- 6. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 6
- 7. Guillaume Martin (France / Wanty) 6
- 8. Jan Bakelants (Belgium / AG2R) 5
- 9. Serge Pauwels (Belgium / Dimension Data) 5
- 10. Richie Porte (Australia / BMC Racing) 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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