US President Donald Trump’s unflinching determination to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has stunned many who jumped to invest in the emerging market in the last three years.
State Department briefings after Mr Trump’s statement late yesterday said that sanctions would be re-imposed in two phases, one lasting 90 days, the other three months. That means that countries and businesses will have to decide quickly whether they are with Mr Trump, or with Tehran.
Indeed, the ink on Mr Trump’s executive order was barely dry when new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell tweeted a warning that “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately”.
Economic rewards for Iran’s agreement to halt production of weapons-grade atomic material is a key pillar of the 2015 nuclear deal. If European states are unable to promote business links with Iran, Tehran would regard the lack of follow through as a violation of those undertakings. The restraints on its nuclear activity and the inspections by teams from the International Atomic Energy Agency that supervises compliance would quickly collapse.
Writing on Wednesday Emil Dall, a research fellow at RUSI , noted that many businesses remain fearful of the reach of US sanctions. “Many European businesses will be motivated primarily to comply with US sanctions requirements for fear of losing access to US markets or receiving heavy fines from US sanctions enforcement agencies.”
While the fear of heavy sanctions does persist, whether or not the US will be able to reinstate a watertight level of sanctions without European and Asian cooperation is uncertain. Indeed there are already signs that some countries may seek sanctions waivers, and continue to deal with Tehran.
Leading this charge was French Foreign Minister Bruno Le Maire who suggested he would seek “exemptions” and “grand-fathering measures” in discussions with US officials later this week. He added: “[The US Withdrawal] is going to cause considerable economic difficulties, but beyond those economic problems, it’s a matter of principle, to have extraterritorial sanctions”.
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Read more
Does deal exit mean Trump is eyeing regime change in Iran?
Iran nuclear deal: a thought-out strategy is still lacking
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French aircraft manufacturer Airbus, who currently are yet to deliver some 97 planes as part of a multi-billion-dollar deal, announced they were” carefully analysing” the situation, while it was confirmed that US manufacturer Boeing’s license to export almost $20 billion worth of aircraft to Iran’s ageing fleet would be revoked.
Iranian oil has found a thirsty market in Asia, with China, India and Japan quickly becoming some of Tehran’s top customers since sanctions were lifted.
Ehsan Khoman, head of MENA research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, told The National that this trade may not necessarily be devastated by the new sanctions.
Mr Khoman said: “The US is expected to go it alone in relation to the resumption of Iranian sanctions and thus, the EU may not deem it necessary to reinstate sanctions on shipping insurance, which were critical in disrupting Iranian crude exports between 2012-16.”
Although there would be some hit, it is not likely to come close to pre-2016 levels. “In terms of the precise size and magnitude of Iranian crude that is likely to be impacted, we foresee that it would not likely be the near one million b/d of lost supply seen over 2012-2016 during the wave of nuclear related sanctions in place on Iran, but more in the region of 250,00-350,00 b/d”.
He added there are already signs, that Asian economies will seek waivers from the sanctions. “Comments overnight from Japanese Director of Petroleum Policy at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Takashi Yamada, were that the Japanese government is seeking an exemption from US sanctions on its imports. It is entirely possible that others could follow suit”.
“Whilst the unilateral US reimposition on Iranian crude will reduce its exports, the size and scope still hinges on Iran’s importing countries’ adherence to conform with the sanctions” he added.
Andreas Schweitzer, managing director of Arjan Capital, an advisory firm for business looking to enter the Iranian market said he expected European governments to stand up to the US in defence of their businesses.
“A lot of big companies invested big money in that market based on sovereign promises, today they will question if promises are not worth the paper they are written on," Mr Schweitzer said.
“I would strongly expect European governments to protect the investments of their tax paying individuals and corporations they have encouraged to go to Iran.
“Those who don’t have the stamina won’t stay, Iran is a big boy’s game for those who have nerves money and time, for them Iran is still a great market, they will keep it on their radar.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THREE
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The%20specs
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Company%20profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
