DAMASCUS // The killing of Rafik Hariri has loomed like an iceberg on the Middle East's horizon for years, threatening to sink the region into a new round of dangerous instability and sectarian bloodletting.
For a time it had faded from view and Lebanon, a permanent focal point and theatre for the Middle East's numerous woes, had enjoyed relative calm. But, to general alarm, the 2005 assassination of the former Lebanese premier has again lurched back to the surface.
It was the prospect of a new breakdown in Lebanon, brought about by recent suggestions Hizbollah will be implicated in the murder of Hariri, that prompted a quick response from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, who moved urgently to steady regional nerves.
The central thrust of Riyadh's diplomatic offensive to Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon last week was to ensure a united Arab front. The image of the Saudi monarch arriving in Beirut alongside Syria's president, Bashar al Assad, to be greeted by Lebanese officials from various factions, was perhaps the central piece of symbolism from the tour.
Syria and Saudi Arabia remain highly - and controversially - influential over Lebanese politics. When they co-operate, peace has a chance; if not, violence is always a distinct possibility. The two great Arab powers were at daggers drawn when Lebanon last teetered on the brink of civil war in 2008, but since then their relationship has improved markedly. For now, at least, it is clear that that they intend to keep it that way.
Damascus is a key supporter for Hizbollah, the Shiite resistance movement, while Riyadh backs the other major political bloc in Lebanon, the Sunni-dominated faction led by the current prime minister Saad Hariri, son of the late premier. It was those two groups that hovered close to war two years ago, and it was a Syrian-Saudi deal that helped avert a conflagration.
Qatar also played a key role in bringing about the detente of the 2008 Doha Accords and, pointedly, the Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani was also in Lebanon on Friday, viewing reconstruction projects to repair damage from the 2006 Israel-Hizbollah war - another signal that the Arab countries that helped stabilise Lebanon want to see that stability remain intact.
Damascus will not weaken its alliance with Hizbollah, which it views as essential for its own security, given the continued state of war between Syria and Israel. It can, however, counsel its ally to react calmly to any indictments issued by the UN tribunal to prosecute those behind the killing.
Pictures of King Abdullah and Mr al Assad arriving in Beirut together would have indicated to Hizbollah that it has no blank cheque from Damascus if it decides to take-on its old rivals in a physical confrontation. Syria now supports and has support - albeit conditional support - from more than just Hizbollah in Lebanon and wants to see those interests safeguarded.
From Damascus, the view is that only Syria's enemy Israel would derive any benefit from renewed chaos in Lebanon, with Tel Aviv still desperate to weaken Hizbollah after the militants humiliated its army four summers ago.
Saudi Arabia can likewise counsel its own Lebanese allies to react calmly to whatever findings the UN tribunal announces, rather than taking any steps that lead to confrontation with Hizbollah.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's leader, is due to make a speech tomorrow evening and his comments will be closely watched to see if they conform to the consensus that now is the time to deflate tensions, rather than pump them up.
The burst of pre-emptive diplomacy instigated by King Abdullah seems to have met with some success and, in taking steps to open dialogue and tamp down tensions before any shooting starts, it may prove able to stop that shooting ever taking place.
Still, the danger has by no means passed and, to a large extent, it remains outside of the control of any of the regional players. The Hariri tribunal is expected to issue indictments against suspects before the end of the year. Regardless of how politicised the investigation has or has not been, the fallout from its findings could still prove severe.
The potential for sectarian violence in Lebanon is one that Arab leaders will be working hard over the coming months to avoid. But if the tribunal takes aim against Hizbollah, as now widely anticipated, even shuttle diplomacy may prove inadequate.
Like the Doha Accords that it sought to shore up, this latest bout of diplomacy offers respite but does not solve Lebanon's problems or the complex issues of the Middle East that underlay them. Even if a safe route past the iceberg of the Hariri killing is found, there is always that other, larger iceberg - the perennial Arab-Israel conflict - waiting out there to sink the region.
psands@thenational.ae
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
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City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
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The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
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Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
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Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Cherry
Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo
Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo
1/5
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
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match info
Southampton 2 (Ings 32' & pen 89') Tottenham Hotspur 5 (Son 45', 47', 64', & 73', Kane 82')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
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