NEW YORK // Egypt's population will more than triple to 291 million by the end of this century if fertility rates remain at their current elevated levels, according to a UN report on demographic trends.
The United Nations says the world population is expected to hit seven billion later this year and could become unsustainably high at 14 billion by 2100 unless developing countries bring birth rates under control.
It warns of big potential population increases in Egypt and Yemen, two countries struck by unrest linked to high youth unemployment, food prices and a desire for more political freedoms.
If the average Egyptian woman continues having 2.9 children, the population will grow from 84.5m last year to 291m in 2100. If Yemen's fertility rate remains stable at 5.3, a resource-poor nation could witness 18-fold growth from 24.3 million last year to 434 million people at the end of the century.
"Egypt has seen a decline in fertility but still has a moderately high fertility rate," said Hania Zlotnik, the director of the UN Population Division, which compiled the 30-page report.
"If Egypt does not continue to reduce fertility rates, they will have a huge problem because it is the most populous country in that region, with economic problems and questions about feeding, educating and finding jobs for its population."
Uncontrolled population growth is not a problem across the whole region. The UAE, for example, will only see a little over a doubling of its population from 4.7m last year to 10.3m at the end of the century if fertility rates remain stable.
Ms Zlotnik's UN division produced six projections of potential future population trends based on different changes to fertility rates and other factors. In the medium scenario, world population peaks at 9.4 billion in 2070 and then starts to decline.
But she says there are no guarantees that the world population will stabilise, because not all countries with medium and high fertility rates are doing enough to bring population growth under control.
While governments would be wise to track their population trends, they are not the direct cause of political upheavals of the kind that have recently rocked Egypt, Yemen and Jordan, Ms Zlotnik said. Latin American countries have comparably high fertility rates and young populations but are not having similar turmoil.
"What's happening in the Middle East is a political and a social problem," she said. "Of course, you have to have people to have social and political problems, but it's not a question of numbers alone."
Tunisia, where demonstrations led to the ousting of president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali last month, was the "poster child" of North African population analysts, a low-income country with low fertility rates, she said.
Tunisia's population of 10.4m last year will grow to only 11.3m by the end of the century if it maintains its current fertility rate, and could even see a drop in total numbers.
jreinl@thenational.ae
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
FOOTBALL TEST
Team X 1 Team Y 0
Scorers
Red card
Man of the Match
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is cyberbullying?
Cyberbullying or online bullying could take many forms such as sending unkind or rude messages to someone, socially isolating people from groups, sharing embarrassing pictures of them, or spreading rumors about them.
Cyberbullying can take place on various platforms such as messages, on social media, on group chats, or games.
Parents should watch out for behavioural changes in their children.
When children are being bullied they they may be feel embarrassed and isolated, so parents should watch out for signs of signs of depression and anxiety
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
The%20specs
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Company%20Profile
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About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Company%20profile
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More on animal trafficking
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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Barbie
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
