Turkey's army faces a new challenge



Mostafa Zain, in a comment article in the London-based newspaper Al Hayat, criticises the approach adopted by the military establishment in Turkey, saying it limits the scope of people's thought and enforces a borrowed form of secularism. The Turkish army has always prevented the population from engaging fully in the political process by imposing a set of values that are alien to the country, the author says. Moreover, the army has manipulated Islamic extremist groups as the political opposition, and staged four coups.

Meanwhile, another Turkey was growing, one that is tolerant of its history. The army, of course, has been against rising national sentiment that disagrees with the founding father, Kemaal Atatturk. In other countries it has backed militias to help overturn governments led by Islamic parties, which presented themselves as conservative but not against secularist principles. Now the army faces a strong political trend which could weaken its overwhelming position in the political system of modern Turkey. It is possible that both parties will reach a compromise, but the conflict may continue with the army exercising its authority in the name of secularism, and the government strengthening its position based on popular acclaim.

"Those who fear a sudden war between the US and Iran over the Iranian nuclear programme should rest assured that any military action would entail a resolution by the UN Security Council. This is not likely for the moment because of reluctance by Russia and China," remarked Waleed Mohammed al Saadi in an opinion piece for the Jordanian newspaper Al Rai. Learning from past experiences, no country, including Israel, will be able to attack Iran even on the grounds that Tehran is close to possessing atomic weaponry without an international consensus.

What is more, any military conflict would be disastrous and possibly involve the use of ballistic missiles enabled with massively destructive munitions, which would cause havoc. For these reasons, a quick raid is not likely to take place. Alternatively, however, measures such as an economic and financial blockade could be imposed to force Iran to comply with the West. Yet even these would require a resolution by the UN security council. This suggests that the western-Iranian conflict is doomed to continue endlessly. As a result, Iran is likely to get nuclear weapons sooner or later, and thus become an influential state in the region, except, of course, if moderate leaders gain power. Then, and only then, could Iran coexist with the international community.

"Despite the framework agreement between the Sudanese government and the Justice and Development Movement (JEM), a durable peace is still far from being achieved as new fighting between the government and another rebel group has taken place," noted the UAE newspaper Akhbar Al Arab in its editorial.

Many have warned against a partial agreement because it does not broaden the scope of peace in the troubled province. Last week's agreement - signed unilaterally - prompted other groups to step up military action in an attempt to sway public opinion to their cause and their claim that they have been marginalised. They are now trying to hamper the "peace deal" agreed on by the government and JEM. "This leads us to think that the government rushed to sign the agreement with what it considered the most powerful rebel faction in Darfur to restrain other movements or to weaken their positions. By doing this, the government thought it could force them to come to the negotiation table willingly. Yet this tactic turned out to be wrong, because many groups resort to force as a way to strengthen themselves before talks." If the rebels had unified, there could have been a much more comprehensive peace deal. Herein lies the role of mediators to bring differing views closer to each other.

"Who to follow? Who to reject? Who to disbelieve? Who to boycott? These are some of controversial questions that haunt the minds of many who are obsessed with the fatwa fever. Perhaps the number of fatwas issued in modern times outnumbers all those throughout Islamic history," wrote Mohamed Diyab in a comment piece for the London-based newspaper Al Sharq Al Awsat.

It seems to be a never-ending process. One can see them on TV, hear them on radio, read them on the internet, to name but a few, without knowing for sure who is eligible for this task. Offering religious opinions was a critical function in the past, and many scholars hesitated to do so. Only after consultation did the most able scholars accept such a hard task. That is why a fatwa in the past was more authoritative and had more effect on people's behaviour as well as convictions.

"Too many opinions hastily given lead to two divisions: those who consider the fatwa a non-binding opinion, while others who feel constrained. Accordingly, many cannot act even within the permissible sphere without asking more than one scholar." * Digest compiled by Mostapha El Mouloudi @Email:melmouloudi@thenational.ae

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile

Name: Infinite8

Based: Dubai

Launch year: 2017

Number of employees: 90

Sector: Online gaming industry

Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor

Emiratisation at work

Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago

It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.

Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers

The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension

President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.

During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development

More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics

The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens

UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere

The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens

'Dark Waters'

Directed by: Todd Haynes

Starring: Mark Ruffalo, Anne Hathaway, William Jackson Harper 

Rating: ****