TUNIS // Tomorrow morning, after nine months of revolution followed by social upheaval and political battles, Tunisians go to the polls. Then the real work begins.
After inspiring the Arab Spring by toppling Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia again will set an example in moving from dictatorship to democracy.
Excitement has swelled further with Muammar Qaddafi's death on Thursday. But while Libyans rejoiced at Qaddafi's downfall, Tunisians were facing the next phase of democratic transition with both hope and concern.
For the first time ever, Tunisians will freely choose their leaders. Yet much work - and some pitfalls - remain on the path to democracy.
The national assembly that emerges from tomorrow's vote must create a fresh interim government and draft a constitution amid fierce debate over Tunisia's identity.
The potential triumph of the moderate Islamist Ennahda party, expected to come in first in polls, could provide a template for Islamist politics in an Arab democracy.
However, the party's rise has also alarmed secularists and focused national debate on the role of religion in public life.
Tunisia's next interim government must work through such rivalries, while reviving a stricken economy and reforming institutions long twisted to the service of autocracy.
The first task of the national assembly will be to set up a new interim government. How and when that will happen remains unclear.
For now, the current caretaker government will remain in place, said the prime minister, Beji Caid Essebsi, in televised remarks on Thursday aimed at reassuring Tunisians.
Key to forming a new government is how secularist parties will deal with Ennahda. While the party has embraced democracy and pledged to respect Tunisia's progressive positions on women's rights, some secularists have accused it of harbouring a radical agenda.
The urgent need for reforms could lead to unlikely alliances, analysts said. Ennahda wants a national unity government to bridge the Islamist-secularist divide.
"Ennahda is in no rush to govern given the difficult socio-economic environment, but it is also weary of attempts by other parties to undermine its standing," said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, a North Africa analyst at Control Risks, a British risk-assessment firm.
In apparent exasperation, Ennahda's leader, Rached Ghannouchi, warned this week that the party would back street demonstrations if the voting is rigged.
Mr Essebsi on Thursday promised a clean vote that would "show that there is no contradiction between Islam and democracy".
While some secularist parties may try to form a majority bloc, "I think most of the parties will actually work together", said Michael Willis, a professor of Moroccan and Mediterranean studies at Oxford University.
Nevertheless, potential would remain for initial gridlock as parties squabble over cabinet portfolios, Mr Gallopin said.
One alternative would be a cabinet of technocrats, he said. "But in both cases, there is a risk that the cabinet will lack the legitimacy or cohesiveness that are required for important decisions on economic policy."
For many Tunisians, it is one thing to wait months for a new constitution. It is another to wait that long - or longer - for a job.
The revolution that freed Tunisia from the rule of Mr Ben Ali inadvertently crippled an economy already weakened by corruption. With many investors and tourists spooked by political turmoil, Tunisia's economic growth this year is expected to flatline.
For the next government, the pressure is on for quick solutions to boost jobs and signal an end to malaise.
Easier said than done, according to David Rinck, a Tunis-based economist with the Institute for Social and Economic Development, a US non-profit, who heads a State Department-funded project to help improve North African business environments.
"There's no low-hanging fruit in terms of economic reform," Mr Rinck said. "Instead, there's a set of specialised and technical challenges to the management of the economy."
Key among those challenges is halting a slide towards not being able to maintain payments on US$21.45 billion (Dh78.12bn) in foreign debt, said Mr Rinck.
"This country has been on a downwards slope in terms of foreign exchange reserve liquidity for over 10 years," he said. "The events of the revolution have accelerated that process, especially the blow to the tourism sector."
On Tuesday, Tunisia's finance minister, Jalloul Ayed, called on the next crop of leaders to help revive the economy by restarting a privatisation programme put on hold by January's revolution.
The nightmare scenario of a default on debts would shake both investor and public confidence, Mr Rinck said.
Also at risk are Tunisian banks pressured by Mr Ben Ali's regime into investing in projects of the ruling clique.
"Given public anger of corruption, the government will come under pressure to expropriate those properties," Mr Rinck said. For banks whose loan portfolios are tainted by even 5 to 10 per cent, state seizure "could potentially be fatal".
Where Tunisia's economy needs cultivation, its legal codes need pruning to safeguard rights squashed by Mr Ben Ali's regime.
"Tunisia is saddled with scores of repressive laws used to muzzle dissent," said Eric Goldstein, the deputy Middle East and North Africa director for Human Rights Watch.
While Tunisia's constitution appears to guarantee civil liberties, penal codes are littered with restrictions on free speech, public gatherings, and organised groups.
"As long as those laws are still there, there's a danger that somebody will be tempted to use them," Mr Goldstein said.
One example of backsliding was the May arrest of the security official Samir Feriani after he accused interior ministry officials of human rights abuses.
While Mr Feriani was released months later, his arrest illustrated the danger of leaving Ben Ali-era laws on the books, Mr Goldstein said.
Other tasks include reforming the judiciary and retraining security forces, long deployed by Mr Ben Ali's regime as tools of repression.
For now, Tunisia's interim leaders have taken steps forward on civil rights, said Mr Goldstein, citing decree laws liberating the press and opening the political playing field.
"But there's more to do, and there's always a danger that the next government could roll back reforms," he said.
The future, increasingly, is for Tunisians to write. With tomorrow's vote they begin the next chapter.
jthorne@thenational.ae
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THREE
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The%20specs
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Company%20profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Gertrude Bell's life in focus
A feature film
At one point, two feature films were in the works, but only German director Werner Herzog’s project starring Nicole Kidman would be made. While there were high hopes he would do a worthy job of directing the biopic, when Queen of the Desert arrived in 2015 it was a disappointment. Critics panned the film, in which Herzog largely glossed over Bell’s political work in favour of her ill-fated romances.
A documentary
A project that did do justice to Bell arrived the next year: Sabine Krayenbuhl and Zeva Oelbaum’s Letters from Baghdad: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Gertrude Bell. Drawing on more than 1,000 pieces of archival footage, 1,700 documents and 1,600 letters, the filmmakers painstakingly pieced together a compelling narrative that managed to convey both the depth of Bell’s experience and her tortured love life.
Books, letters and archives
Two biographies have been written about Bell, and both are worth reading: Georgina Howell’s 2006 book Queen of the Desert and Janet Wallach’s 1996 effort Desert Queen. Bell published several books documenting her travels and there are also several volumes of her letters, although they are hard to find in print. Original documents are housed at the Gertrude Bell Archive at the University of Newcastle, which has an online catalogue.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
