WADI KHALED, LEBANON // A new front has opened in the six-month revolt against the regime of President Bashar Al Assad: within the Syrian military itself.
Scores of officers and thousands of soldiers have defected in recent weeks, according to one former lieutenant, amid a mounting death toll and reports of brutality against protesters by government forces.
The rebel brigades do not yet appear to pose a substantive threat to the regime, but army defectors have been reported fighting with security forces this week in the town of Rastan, 180km north of Damascus.
Defectors managed to hold off a tank-backed assault using RPGs, booby traps and rifles, and activists say 40 people have been killed.
Reports say some soldiers who escaped from their units have gone into hiding, and others have joined nascent groups such as the Free Syrian Army, believed to comprise former military officers and soldiers attempting to mount an armed challenge to Mr Al Assad's rule.
Video footage posted online appears to show defecting soldiers dressed in military fatigues, some carrying weapons. In one piece of footage, a man who identifies himself as a former captain in the Syrian military holds up his army ID and announces his defection, pledging to "shake Assad's rule".
It is not clear how many soldiers have fled their posts. Some with sympathies for the uprising are believed to have deserted their units to protect civilians, others simply want to go home.
One former officer abandoned his unit after refusing to obey orders to shoot at protesters. The man left his post as an army lieutenant several weeks ago and has been on the run since, fearing for his safety and that of his family.
"At first I was preferring to stay in the army where I can save lives by preventing my soldiers from shooting people, rather than running away and hiding," he said.
His position changed when his commanders found out he had instructed soldiers under his command not to fire on civilians unless soldiers were attacked.
The former lieutenant knows of more than 100 officers who have deserted in recent weeks. He believes lower ranked soldiers have left in the thousands, some joining battalions connected to groups such as the Free Syrian Army.
While there have been numerous reports of organised ex-military forces being formed, the former officer said they were not yet a cohesive force, but separate brigades scattered around Syria.
"This revolution can't continue without armed groups," he said, "because people will be killed like sheep."
Nevertheless, the former officer believed the armed groups formed by former soldiers were separate from the broader opposition movement, which has remained largely peaceful.
Elias Hanna, a Lebanese analyst and retired general, said that so far the actions of brigades comprising former soldiers had not yet brought about a turning point in the crisis.
The forces appeared to lack central command and control, or a safe haven from which to operate, as well as foreign support, he said.
"They also aren't enough in number or important members of the army," Mr Hanna said. "It is not critical or dangerous enough yet to force the Syrian security apparatus to collapse, and the regime by default."
Anti-government activist groups such as the Local Coordination Committees have stressed the need for the opposition to remain peaceful and unarmed.
More than 2,700 Syrians, including 100 children, have been killed by military or security forces since the uprising began in March, according to the United Nations.
Some civilians who have managed to escape across the border into northern Lebanon say they were forced from their towns amid the escalating violence by the various branches of Syria's security apparatus, including the army, as well as pro-Assad militia, known as shabiha.
zconstantine@thenational.ae
* With additional reporting by Reuters
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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