The clear lead established by Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr in preliminary results from Iraq's election is not the outcome Washington had hoped for, but is not the worst possible scenario either, experts say.
Final results are expected by Tuesday, but the rise of the renegade cleric is the emerging headline from Iraq’s fourth election since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the first since the defeat of ISIS last year.
While Mr Al Sadr's victory is not a win for the United States, it is not one for Iran either, and Washington's focus now will be on coalition formation in the 329-seat-parliament, as neither Mr Al Sadr nor his rivals hold a clear majority, experts and former US officials told The National.
James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "The US has not had a good day in Iraq, because [its ally] Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi has had a bad day”.
But, he said: “Iran has not had a good day either, because [its allies] Nouri Al Maliki and Hadi Al Ameri did not make enough gains to form a governing coalition."
_______________
Read more: Iraqi PM ready to 'cooperate' after election upset
_______________
The preliminary results show the Sadrists getting about 54 seats, with Mr Al Ameri’s bloc coming second, and Mr Al Abadi a close third.
The rise of Mr Al Sadr is no surprise to Mr Jeffrey. Over the years, he has watched the religious nationalist leader build a movement that caters to working-class Shiites, but is at the heart of opposition to a US presence in Iraq.
“He has done fairly well in past elections, his troops fought against ISIS, the Sadrists are the most disciplined, and have done outreach to Iraqi Sunnis,” Mr Jeffrey said.
The main loser from the Sadrists’ comeback could be former prime minister Mr Al Maliki. Back in 2012, Mr Al Sadr formed an alliance with Ayad Allawi in an attempt to overthrow the then prime minister and Mr Al Sadr's Mahdi Army fought a war with Iraqi security forces under Mr Al Maliki in 2008.
The next step for Mr Al Sadr is to form a parliamentary coalition to pick a prime minister, although he himself is not eligible as he did not stand for election.
The cleric, who went into exile in Iran from 2008 to 2011, has recently built bridges with Iraq’s Arab neighbours. His visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE last year combined with a nationalist message that resonates with Sunni tribes, could go a long way in helping him form a coalition.
“If the current results were to hold, Moqtada would be the big winner,” said Daniel Serwer, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.
"I also think Moqtada is more likely to join forces with Mr Al Abadi than with Mr Al Ameri, but it is far too early to predict the outcome of government formation negotiations," he told The National.
What does this all mean for the US? Mr Serwer said Washington “will need to swallow hard and accept it, especially if the alternative is an Abadi-Ameri or Moqtada-Ameri coalition”.
The main goal for the US post-election should be the inclusion of the Sunnis and the Kurds in the political process, said Mr Serwer.
For Mr Jeffrey, it should be containment of Iran and preventing Tehran from further entrenching itself in Iraqi politics.
Breaking News: The Remaking of Journalism and Why It Matters Now
Alan Rushbridger, Canongate
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Our legal advisor
Rasmi Ragy is a senior counsel at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Prosecutor in Egypt with more than 40 years experience across the GCC.
Education: Ain Shams University, Egypt, in 1978.
Poacher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERichie%20Mehta%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nimisha%20Sajayan%2C%20Roshan%20Mathew%2C%20Dibyendu%20Bhattacharya%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Audi Q5/SQ5
Price, base: Dh183,900 / Dh249,000
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder / 3.0L, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic / Eight-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,000rpm / 354hp @ 5,400rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,600rpm / 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy: combined 7.2L / 100km / 8.3L / 100km
The biog
Favourite Quote: “Real victories are those that protect human life, not those that result from its destruction emerge from its ashes,” by The late king Hussain of Jordan.
Favourite Hobby: Writing and cooking
Favourite Book: The Prophet by Gibran Khalil Gibran
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20112%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Invincible%20(April%2010%2C%202010)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENogueira%20v%20Nelson%20(April%2011%2C%202014)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20242%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khabib%20v%20Poirier%20(September%207%2C%202019)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20251%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Usman%20v%20Masvidal%20(July%2012%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kattar%20v%20Ige%20(July%2016%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFigueiredo%20v%20Benavidez%202%20(July%2019%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%20Whittaker%20v%20Till%20(July%2026%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20253%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdesanya%20v%20Costa%20(September%2027%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holm%20v%20Aldana%20(October%204%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Moraes%20v%20Sandhagen%20(October%2011%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ortega%20v%20Korean%20Zombie%20(October%2018%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20254%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhabib%20v%20Gaethje%20(October%2024%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ABC%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holloway%20v%20Kattar%20(January%2016%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chiesa%20v%20Magny%20(January%2020%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20257%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPoirier%20v%20McGregor%202%20(January%2024%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20267%3A%20Blachowicz%20v%20Teixeira%20(October%2030%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20280%3A%20Oliveira%20v%20Makhachev%20(October%2022%2C%202022)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
How to increase your savings
- Have a plan for your savings.
- Decide on your emergency fund target and once that's achieved, assign your savings to another financial goal such as saving for a house or investing for retirement.
- Decide on a financial goal that is important to you and put your savings to work for you.
- It's important to have a purpose for your savings as it helps to keep you motivated to continue while also reducing the temptation to spend your savings.
- Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyperPay%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhannad%20Ebwini%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2455m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AB%20Ventures%2C%20Amwal%20Capital%2C%20INet%2C%20Mada%20VC%2C%20Mastercard%2C%20SVC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Five hymns the crowds can join in
Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday
Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir
Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium
‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song
‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar
‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion
‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope
The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’
There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia
The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ
They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Walking Thunder, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (rated 72-87) Dh 165,000 1,600m.
Winner: Syncopation, George Buckell, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Big Brown Bear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,200m.
Winner: Stunned, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap (85-105) Dh 210,000 2,000m.
Winner: New Trails, Connor Beasley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
9.25pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,600m.
Winner: Pillar Of Society, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
