ISTANBUL // A group of Syrian army deserters that is fighting to topple the government in Damascus may be too weak to challenge the country's military directly but is gathering momentum with guerrilla attacks on the regime, observers say.
Support for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), whose leadership is based in Turkey, is expected to grow as Bashar Al Assad, the Syrian president, has ruled out any compromise in the eight-month-old uprising in his country and has vowed to crush the protest movement against his government by force, according to Celalettin Yavuz, an analyst in Ankara.
"Assad has entered a dead-end street," Mr Yavuz, the deputy director of the Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (Turksam), told The National by telephone this week. "In this situation, the FSA is becoming stronger."
Mr Yavuz said the FSA is made up almost entirely of Sunni Muslims, while the political and military leadership in Syria is dominated by Alawites, a situation echoing the main religious fault-line in Syria. The deserters, who are mostly lower-rank soldiers, are armed with rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons but do not possess tanks or artillery, he said.
While the FSA appears to lack an elaborate organisation and was operating in small groups, it still could hurt the regime, added Mr Yavuz, a former officer of the Turkish navy who has taught at the military's National Security Academy in Istanbul. "They are able to inflict damage because the regular Syrian army is not that strong," he said. "They can employ guerrilla tactics, like planting roadside bombs."
Last week, the FSA attacked a Syrian air force intelligence base in the outskirts of the capital, Damascus. It has also claimed attacks on installations of the security forces in other parts of the country, such as Aleppo in the north. The United States, Russia and Turkey have all voiced concern that the escalation could lead to a civil war in Syria.
"They are the real heroes of this revolution," an anti-regime protester in the central city of Hama, the site of a massacre by Mr Al Assad's father and predecessor in 1982 and a hotbed of resistance against the regime, told the Associated Press. "Everyone else has abandoned us."
The FSA was formed in the summer and is led by Colonel Riyadh Al Asaad, a former Syrian army officer who has fled to Turkey. Col Asaad has said in several media interviews that the FSA has 15,000 soldiers in Syria, organised in 22 battalions. According to statements on the group's Facebook page, new soldiers have been joining the FSA almost daily. The regular Syrian army has about 300,000 soldiers.
In an interview with Turkey's semi-official news agency Anadolu, Col Asaad said that almost 400 soldiers had deserted the Syrian armed forces on a single day last week, after 15 officers joined the FSA the week before. "Desertions are increasing day by day," he said. His statements could not be independently verified.
Col Asaad described his group as a growing threat to the Syrian regime. "Right now, the Free Syrian Army is fighting against the brutal regime in an efficient manner in every Syrian city. There is coordination and cooperation between the different units", he said in his interview with Anadolu.
However, there are doubts about the level of efficient coordination within the group. Last Sunday, Col Asaad denied an earlier statement by his fighters who had said the FSA had launched an attack on Mr Al Assad's Baath party headquarters in Damascus. According to the Associated Press, the FSA had said in a Facebook post that was later removed that it fired rocket-propelled grenades at the ruling party HQ.
The FSA's military capabilities are also being questioned by some observers.
"We know that there are deserters, and that there are groups of deserters that have kept their weapons," said a western diplomat in Ankara, the Turkish capital. "But we do not have information pointing to an organised structure. There are small, dispersed groups."
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to discuss the issue publicly, said the FSA did not appear to be a serious military fighting force. "We don't think they have a big [military] significance, except for delivering hit-and-run attacks," the diplomat said.
The Turkish government has given tacit support to the group. Col Asaad and other Syrian deserters were gathered in the same refugee camp in southern Turkey, a Turkish diplomat said last month. Turkish authorities have also provided the colonel with the opportunity to speak to the media. On Facebook, the FSA is asking for donations to Turkish bank accounts.
Hosting the FSA leadership in Turkey fits Ankara's wider policy on Syria. After trying in vain to convince Mr Al Assad to implement political reforms, the Turkish government has grown increasingly critical of Syria's leader since the summer and has started to support exile opposition groups.
Officially, Turkey's motives in hosting FSA leaders are purely humanitarian. "Thousands of people have arrived from Syria," the Turkish diplomat said about refugees fleeing across the border. Guards manning the border did not differentiate between deserters and other refugees, he said. "What are we supposed to do? Send them back to Syria? Would that be an option?"
tseibert@thenational.ae
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
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Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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Keane on …
Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”
Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”
PFA Team of the Year: David de Gea, Kyle Walker, Jan Vertonghen, Nicolas Otamendi, Marcos Alonso, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Sergio Aguero
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
