BAGHDAD AND NINEWA // Iraqis will vote in provincial elections tomorrow in the first real test of public opinion since 2005, with no one quite knowing what the results will be or what impact the ballot will have on the fragile security situation. There have been limited opinion polls and canvassing of political viewpoints, but not the kind of systematic, scientific and relentless examinations that typify a modern European or US election. Two senior advisers with the US State Department based in two different provinces, one in Iraq's north, the other in the south, said in interviews with The National they had "no idea" what the outcome would be. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media.
"There have been so many changes since the last elections and while we can guess at what it means, we don't know how it will all be translated into control of the province," the adviser in the south said. "We know that people are not happy with the performance of the council, but not much more than that. We have vague impressions, nothing more. We just don't know who will vote for whom, there isn't any hard data. We'll have to just wait and see."
A key factor in the south and in Baghdad will be the performance of the Sadrists, a movement that has commanded significant grass-roots support among the urban Shiite poor but has never been well represented in provincial political authorities. In the Iraqi capital, some 40 per cent of the population is thought to live in areas where the Sadrists are popular. The end of a Sunni electoral boycott is also likely to reshape the political map.
This month, the government-run Centre for National Media conducted a nationwide poll of 4,500 Iraqis. It indicated high levels of support for Nouri al Maliki, the prime minister, falling popularity of the religious parties and growing nationalistic sentiments. Anecdotal information from conversations with scores of Iraqis appears to support those broad trends. The public is also expecting electoral fraud. "People are turning away from the religious political parties," said Gzawn Mohamed Basri, an engineer from Basra. "The Sadrists were strong here but I think they've lost any hopes of controlling the city."
The 28-year-old said efforts would "certainly" be made to rig the ballot but that election observers, many of them school teachers, would limit corruption. "There will be cheating but I don't think it could be on a scale that could steal the election." In Anbar province, once the heartland of the Sunni insurgency, the shoe shop owner Mohammed Qassim said the Iraqi prime minister was growing in popularity.
"He is strong and against the division of Iraq," said the 37-year old father of three. Mr al Maliki is not personally up for re-election but his party is taking part in the provincial ballots. Mr Qassim, from Fallujah, also predicted politically active Sunni tribes would eclipse the Iraqi Islamic Party, which to date has largely monopolised Sunni representation in elected offices. "We are seeing more national unity and less religious domination," he said.
In Baghdad, Kriem Khalaf Jawad, a university professor, said Iraqis would vote for change. "Everyone I have spoken to is tired of the nepotism, corruption and mismanagement of the councils," he said. "I expect some problems with vote corruption and there has been different kinds of intimidation but that will not stop me from voting." In the northern province of Ninewa, one of the most hotly contested areas with Kurds and Arabs battling for power, Umm Zait, a Christian mother of four, said she was unlikely to vote.
"We've seen nothing from the politicians here," she said. "People may say the prime minister is more popular but I still don't have electricity and I still can't go into Mosul city because it's too dangerous. "And anyway, my vote wouldn't count. They've decided the results already. What we say doesn't matter." nlatif@thenational.ae psands@thenational.ae Nizar Latif reported from Baghdad, Phil Sands from Ninewa
