Pentagon exaggerates ISIS foreign fighter estimates


Sunniva Rose
  • English
  • Arabic

Claims by a US general that 100 foreign fighters a month still travel to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS are likely overplayed in order to justify a continued American presence in Syria, an analyst says. But the group still remains a potent force capable of fierce resistance defending its last redoubt in the Syrian desert.

Speaking at a conference at a military facility in Maryland, the Pentagon’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joe Dunford said groups like ISIS “remain resilient, determined and adaptable”.

“It’s the flow of foreign fighters, the ability to move resources, and the ideology that allows these groups to operate,” Gen Dunford said on Tuesday.

While at its peak, ISIS attracted roughly 1500 foreigner to its ranks a month, Gen Dunford warned against complacency in the fight against violent extremism, estimating that 100 foreigners were still joining the group monthly.

This figure seemed artificially high, said Aymenn Al-Tamimi, a research fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Today, the only part of Syria controlled by ISIS is a remote desert area along the eastern border with Iraq without major population centres. Its distance from the Turkish border would complicate attempts by foreign fighters to smuggle themselves in, says Mr Al-Tamimi. Getting through Iraqi airports or border crossings would be equally as difficult.

The aim of Gen Dunford overplaying the number of foreign fighters joining ISIS was likely to justify the US’ continuing presence in Syria, argues Mr Al-Tamimi. “The fight against ISIS is its official reason to remain there. It would be much harder for the US to explain its presence as an official counter-Iran mission”.

The US, as well as its regional ally Israel, fears that Iran’s influence on Syria will be permanently bolstered thanks to its support of the government of Bashar Al Assad during the civil war.

For the past month, ISIS has been resisting a fierce attack led by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against its last significant stronghold near the Iraqi border, around the town of Hajin.

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But the SDF’s efforts have been recently slowed down due to bad weather, which offer ISIS fighters cover from aerial surveillance.

“Daesh is benefiting a lot from weather factors, including sandstorms. They've helped it take cover from reconnaissance aircraft and other monitoring mechanisms," a top SDF commander, Redur Khalil, said on Tuesday, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS. As a result, the battle will take “much longer than expected”.

The SDF, which estimates that some 3,000 ISIS fighters remain the area, has lost over 200 fighters over the past month, reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) war monitor yesterday. More than 300 ISIS fighters were reportedly killed.

The UN has warned of the “devastating impact” of the violence on at least 10,000 civilians. ISIS reportedly abducted hundreds of them last week in Hajin, where it is also thought to be holding dozens of women hostages from Sweida for the past three months.

Additionally, the SOHR reported yesterday that shelling by the SDF and the international coalition killed seven civilians.

The SDF’s latest setback highlights ISIS’ resilience in Syria, particularly in the remote desert area which stretches from the southern volcanic, uninhabited region east of Sweida, where ISIS is currently fighting the Syrian army, to the Iraqi border and then north to Turkey.

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Key changes

Commission caps

For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:

• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term). 

• On the protection component, there is a cap  of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).

• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated. 

• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.

• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.

Disclosure

Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.

“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”

Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.

Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.

“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.

Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.

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Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.

Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.

Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.

Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.

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