Palestinians despondent as Israeli polls near

RAMALLAH, WEST BANK // With less than two weeks before Kadima, Israel's ruling party, chooses a new leader, Palestinians should be paying as close attention as Israelis. But although Palestinian lives are to a very large degree shaped by Israeli government policies, few people here seem much engrossed by the vote on Sept 17 that will likely determine the identity of the next Israeli prime minister.

"Israeli politics dictates our everyday lives," said Peter Nasser, 31, a Ramallah restaurateur. "It's important what goes on in Israel because it has implications for us. But we've realised that whoever is in power, it's all the same strategy. So our interest has dwindled." It is an apathy borne of despondency rather than disinterest. Palestinians might have been keen on Ehud Barak winning the premiership in 1999 because they thought an agreement could be easier struck with him than Benjamin Netanyahu, who was the Likud prime minister then. But times have changed.

"In the post-Arafat, post-Sharon world, there is a lack of leadership on both sides," said Mahdi Abdul Hadi, a Palestinian analyst, referring to former leaders Yasser Arafat, now dead, and Ariel Sharon, in a coma since 2004. "Those who are running for political posts in Israel are not leaders, they are political animals fighting for their personal agendas. There is nothing to distinguish between them."

On the face of it, this may seem a broad strokes analysis, with the differences between the various personalities in Israeli politics so often commented on. Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister and favourite to replace Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, as leader of Kadima, also heads the current negotiations with the Palestinians to which she appears committed. These are negotiations that her immediate competitor within Kadima, Shaul Mofaz, the transport minister and a former army chief of staff, is less involved in and less obviously committed to. They are negotiations toward which her likely future foe, Mr Netanyahu, the right-wing leader of the Israeli opposition, is distinctly cool to.

Ms Livni maintains a strong lead over Mr Mofaz, with 40 per cent of Kadima members saying they will vote for her and only 20 per cent for Mr Mofaz. Such a lead would be enough for her to win the party leadership contest outright in the first round on Sept 17. But if she wins the primaries and fails to form a new coalition government, new elections are expected in Israel some time next spring, a year ahead of schedule.

Nevertheless, Palestinian observers expect little change on the ground or with respect to negotiations. "Livni may try to continue the present dialogue with the Palestinian Authority, as opposed to Mofaz or Netanyahu," said George Giacaman, a Palestinian analyst. "There is a difference, but it is minimal. "The problem is that the various Israeli parties have short-term interests in mind, local and not strategic ? Unless there is an external push and if left to their own, Israeli political parties will not advance the political process. No Israeli leader will be able to put forward a proposal that is acceptable to the Palestinian side and hence no agreement will be forthcoming."

Another problem is that the negotiations that started in Annapolis, Maryland, in November do not seem to have curtailed a unilateral Israeli strategy that was strongly pursued by Mr Sharon and championed by Mr Olmert. That unilateral strategy has seen Israel withdraw its troops and remove settlers from the Gaza Strip and pursue the building of a separation barrier in and around the West Bank. The route of this barrier, which dips in and out of occupied territory to include Israeli settlements and all of East Jerusalem, is increasingly openly being considered a de facto border, with Israeli officials now publicly worrying only about settlements to the east of that barrier.

As such, settlement building to the west of the barrier has continued apace, in spite of Palestinian protestations, international condemnation and, indeed, the negotiations. "People have come to realise that Israel is taking the West Bank, inch by inch," Mr Abdul Hadi said. "Israel intends to end the thesis of a two-state solution. It makes no difference who leads the country." It may also explain why talk of negotiations or Israeli politics elicits such strong cynicism among Palestinians.

"Ehu-tzipi-yahu," said Ehab Abu Tareq, 36, an electrician, contracting the names of Mr Olmert, Ms Livni and Mr Netanyahu. "They are all one person. There is no difference [between them] and none of them is any good for us or peace." @Email:okarmi@thenational.ae