RAMALLAH // When he returns to the region this week, the US secretary of state, John Kerry, faces little change in the sceptism from Israelis and Palestinians of the negotiations he has strived to restart.
Neither side appears any closer to reviving the moribund peace process despite the handsome inducements dangled in front of them.
Instead, Palestinians and Israelis have turned to trading criticism over the lack of progress on Mr Kerry's initiative and hedging against the fallout of its potential failure, analysts say.
"They're putting blame on each other for the lack of progress, and once you do that, psychologically, you put each other on the defensive," said Yehudit Auerbach, professor of political science at Israel's Bar-Ilan University.
Both sides were preoccupied with not being "seen as the one to blame for failure", she added.
On previous trips he has offered impressive incentives, including a sweetened version of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative that offers Israel normal relations with the 22-member Arab League, as well as a US$4 billion (Dh14.7bn) economic aid proposal for the Palestinians.
Mkhaimar Abusada, professor of political science at Gaza's Al Azhar University, said that both sides think "Kerry hasn't made progress - there doesn't seem to be any breakthrough happening at all".
Mr Kerry had failed to "bridge" the gaps between Israelis and Palestinians on the core issues, including Jewish settlements and security.
Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made scant mention of the attempt to revive the Arab Peace Initiative. Instead, i last week, he clung to his position of asking Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, to return to talks without "preconditions".
"Don't miss the opportunity," he said, urging Mr Abbas to "give peace a chance".
Mr Abbas demands Mr Netanyahu halt construction of settlements in the occupied territories before talks can resume.
Palestinian officials, who doubt the demand will be met, privately express concern about the impact of yet another failed peace initiative. In particular, they cite fear receiving the sort of blame cast on the late Yasser Arafat for the collapse of the 2000 Camp David summit held with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak.
Publically, the chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, sought to blame Israeli society last week for "political blindness" in not pushing for compromise.
Yet he also stressed that failure of Mr Kerry's effort "isn't an option and we are making every effort so that his mission of renewing negotiations with Israel will succeed".
There is speculation that if Mr Kerry's efforts fail, Mr Abbas may be ready to bring Israel to the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.
Labib Kamhawi, an independent political analyst who lives in Amman, Jordan, said the Palestinian leadership should prepare to deal with unrest at home if the talks initiative failed.
Mr Abbas and allied leaders have staked their careers on negotiating peace with Israel, but Mr Kerry has said an independent Palestinian state may not be feasible in two years. With a failure of the Kerry iniative, Mr Kamhawi said, the Palestinian leadership's credibility at home would be nearly exhausted and this "might spell the end of the Abbas era and trigger another Palestinian uprising".
hnaylor@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The five pillars of Islam
TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
Rating: 4.5/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20specs
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
