CAIRO // Ashraf Kamal, the managing director of a small business, leaned back in his chair, looked at photographs of famous golf courses hanging in his office and remembered the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
"The revolution," he said ruefully, "made me have a lot of time for golf."
An entrepreneur whose most recent venture was in digital marketing, he was filled with optimism when the autocrat of 30 years was felled.
But Mr Kamal's story in the two-and-a-half years that followed echoes that of much of the Egyptian business community.
He watched in dismay as the market contracted and foreign investment disappeared while instability soared. His business has only just been able to cover his costs.
Worst of all, he says, has been the way Egypt's elected, Islamist government put its own people in positions of power, outdoing the cronyism and incompetence of the old regime. Egypt's new interim leaders have presented an economic plan, promising changes for the better.
But business people and analysts are concerned the projections in the plan are overly optimistic and that it does not give sufficient attention to the structural problems that keep half of Egypt's population on or near the poverty line.
Last week, Ahmed Galal, the finance minister, said that by the end of the year, the budget deficit would be reduced from 14 per cent of the gross domestic product to 9 per cent. At the same time, the deputy prime minister, Ziad Baha El Din, announced a 22.3 billion-Egyptian pound (Dh11.86bn) stimulus package for investment projects in the next 10 months.
The plans were buoyed by more than $12bn in grants, loans and fuel from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood-led government in July.
The influx of cash has bolstered dwindling foreign reserves and averted a catastrophe - like being unable to import wheat - but even such large sums will not end Egypt's economic problems, said Salma Hussein, an economist at the state-run Ahram Hebdo weekly. She said the plan could increase the country's debt burden to more than 100 per cent of GDP.
"The idea of the stimulus plan is correct," said Ms Hussein. "Because the private sector is now very hesitant. You need to spend money to create jobs."
However, she said she thought that the stimulus plan was "meagre" and that she was not convinced whether the projects were designed to create jobs for Egypt's poor.
Structurally, there are no plans for reforming subsidies of fuel and food, which account for about 10 per cent of GDP, according to the Oxford Business Group, a consulting firm. Nor are minimal tax rates set to be increased.
"The newly appointed interim government signalled it would not engage in major structural reforms, which would entail controversial legislation, as it lacks a strong mandate, being a transition government," EFG Hermes, an investment bank, said last month.
In a country now prone to mass demonstrations, it would be unwise to impose painful reforms, the report said.
The report also cast doubt on the idea that the budget deficit could be reduced by 5 per cent over the next year and pointed out that the Gulf aid, about half of which is in loans, adds to the debts, some of which Egypt should begin repaying in the next two years.
Ms Hussein said that programmes to reform subsidies have been on hold since 2007 and the economic situation has become progressively worse since. She said that reform was more urgent in a country where the needs are great. A report by the Economic Research Forum in Cairo in 2011 set 25.2 per cent of the population below the poverty line and a further 23.7 per cent as "near poor" and that the average Egyptian spends more than 40 per cent of income on food.
Since that report came out, food prices have increased, with a dramatic spike this year. There are also no immediate plans for improvements to health care or education. UN figures suggest about 28 per cent of Egyptians are illiterate.
The widespread "social insecurity" this causes fuels political instability, said Ms Hussein.
"People can't send their kids to school, feed them, get health care. Until you resolve this instability, you will not solve this," she said, adding that if the Brotherhood-led government, with its popular mandate, only lasted a year, the current military-installed leadership could be toppled even more quickly if they do not address the economy.
Mr Kamal, the golf-loving businessman, expressed similar views. He said that as a member of the business community he wanted to see an improvement in security and a focus on attracting foreign investment as priorities.
But he also feared that unless the concerns of the poorest were met, the country could continue to spiral downwards.
The 2011 uprisings called for bread and social justice as well as freedom, he said, but life has become harder for the poorest and hungriest.
"In 2011, there was a golden opportunity and we missed it," he said. "We only have one chance, because there will be a hunger revolution if things do not get straightened out. This is our last chance."
afordham@thenational.ae
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
SPECS
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Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
UJDA CHAMAN
Produced: Panorama Studios International
Directed: Abhishek Pathak
Cast: Sunny Singh, Maanvi Gagroo, Grusha Kapoor, Saurabh Shukla
Rating: 3.5 /5 stars
CHELSEA'S NEXT FIVE GAMES
Mar 10: Norwich(A)
Mar 13: Newcastle(H)
Mar 16: Lille(A)
Mar 19: Middlesbrough(A)
Apr 2: Brentford(H)
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Red Star Belgrade v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight (Thursday), UAE
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Austria 2
Hinteregger (53'), Schopf (69')
Germany 1
Ozil (11')
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
