One leader, 27 years, two Egypts

CAIRO // A well-known Egyptian joke goes that during the 2005 presidential elections, the prime minister asks Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, if he has prepared a farewell speech in case he loses. Mr Mubarak replies: "A farewell speech? Why, where are the Egyptian people going?"

Mr Mubarak, who came to power eight days after the assassination of Anwar Sadat by Islamic militants in Oct 1981, today celebrates his 27th year as president. Initially Mr Mubarak, 80, said he would only seek office for two six-year terms. However, early last year - after four full terms - he said he would remain in power "as long as my heart beats and I'm breathing". Mr Mubarak was elected in Sept 2005 for six years following the country's first multi-presidential elections after he roundly defeated Ayman Nour. However, the fairness of that election has been widely questioned.

As for Nour, he has been imprisoned since Dec 2005 on a five-year sentence on charges of "forgery". More than a few critics say the case against him is politically motivated. Other opponents of the regime, such as Saad Eddin Ibrahim, have had similar experiences. Ibrahim, who lives in self-exile, was sentenced to two years imprisonment in absentia in August for "tarnishing Egypt's image". He has already served more than a year in prison for the same charge between 2000 and 2003 in addition to charges of "forgery".

Mr Mubarak's regime has also conducted an ongoing campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood, the strongest political opposition group in the country. There have been dozens of protests against Mr Mubarak's rule, especially in recent years, many over the possibility of his 44-year-old son, Gamal, inheriting power, though both men have denied this is in their plans. Most of the protests, however, are over rampant corruption, unemployment, a decaying infrastructure and inadequate public services, which are stretching the limits of Egypt's overcrowded towns and cities.

In spite of economic reforms and year-on-year growth of more than seven per cent, almost half the population lives under the poverty line and struggles with high unemployment and an inflation rate of more than 20 per cent. "Mubarak used to say at the beginning of his rule that truth is the shortest way to success," wrote Sayed Abdel Atti in the opposition weekly Sawt el Omma on Sunday. "The result after 27 years of Mubarak's rule is failure in everything: In foreign policy, as Egypt no longer has any weight in Africa or the Arab or international arenas. Our economy has failed ? We are importing all our food, even cotton. Education has collapsed, so has infrastructure, and 40 per cent of Egyptians are now living under the poverty line," he wrote.

But state-run media painted another picture. "October 14 is an immortal day in Egypt's and the Egyptians' history. Egypt is set for another year of development and modernisation, internal stability and foreign success under the leadership of President Hosni Mubarak who has been leading the nation's ship for the past 27 years," read a lengthy report on the website of Mena, Egypt's official news agency.

"President Mubarak enjoys the love and trust of the Egyptian people because he is bearing the load of Egypt's concerns - to provide each citizen with a house, food, medicine, electricity and special care for those with limited income," it said. But while officialdom talks up the supposed gains made under Mr Mubarak's regime, critics claim only the rich have benefited and speak of two countries in one: "Egypt the palace" and "Egypt the hut".

"They are in their palaces eating meat and chicken, while poverty is killing us," is a chant commonly heard in the wave of protests that has swept the country since 2004. University graduates are among those who feel marginalised by a system they say runs on a who-you-know basis. "I graduated seven years ago and have no work, no hope, nothing," said Ahmed Mazen, 29, a commerce graduate. "This country is not ours, if it was you wouldn't find hundreds risking their lives and drowning in the sea while trying to find jobs abroad. The choice has become whether to die in our country or risk dying while escaping poverty here," he said, referring to the boatloads of Egyptians who take their chances illegally migrating to Europe.

But with no political representation to express their frustrations, discontent among the majority of Egyptians has turned to despair. "There is a general mood of disgust, desperation and apathy," said Hisham Kassem, a well known pro-democracy activist and publisher. "The people have lost hope even that Mubarak will die one day," he said. The sentiments of Hassan el Maraghy, 50, a government employee, attested to Mr Kassem's view.

"I can't say things are good, but who guarantees that another president will be better? Maybe what we know is better than what we don't," he said. Meanwhile, state-run media said there was much reason for optimism. "The ambitions of the Egyptians in the coming year are limitless and surpass the size of the country," the Mena report said. "However, they won't be impossible to achieve under our wise leader whose years in power witnessed great achievements and tackling major challenges and difficulties."

nmagd@thenational.ae