No Israeli change of attitude is expected



After the visit of Benjamin Nethanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, to Egypt and his meeting with the Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian foreign minister,  Ahmed Aboul Gheit, stated that his country felt a change in Israeli attitudes, but he could not give more details, declared the Palestinian newspaper Al Quds in its lead article. Meanwhile, Mr Gheit added that the US was still brainstorming ideas on how to push the peace process forward. In Riyadh, King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, upon meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, promised to contact influential states to exert more pressure on Israel to halt settlement expansion and resume negotiations.

It is known that the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Nethanyahu is more moderate compared to his foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, and that promises by the US president Barack Obama have never come through, but what is unknown is what kind of changes are taking place in the "new" Israeli approach. This is at a time when Israel is relentlessly carrying out its expansionist policy and is not ready at all to discuss the final status of Jerusalem. The Palestinians highly praise the support of Egypt and Saudi Arabia but a question remains as to what extent these noble actions can be effective in bringing change.

It costs the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad little to put forward an Israeli-American conspiracy as being behind the ongoing popular unrest against his regime, while Hizbollah avoids thinking of why more than half of the Lebanese rejects its possession of weapons and its control of security zones, wrote Hassan Haydar in a comment piece for the London-based newspaper Al Hayat.

"Tehran and Beirut's southern suburbs are solidly tied by ideology, money and weaponry. They belong to the same school of thought and follow the same style: mistrusting and terrorising whoever oppose them, while undermining those who try to get closer." Iran has come into the spotlight because it has interfered with internal affairs of several Arab countries, especially Lebanon and Iraq. A major mistake by Hizbollah is its attempt to exclude Christians from national political projects because of their attitude against the party's weaponry. "In other words, Hizbollah is forcing a de facto state within a state, wanting to use arms to subdue the Sunni districts of Beirut under its control as it once did."

According to Amos Harel, Haaretz's correspondent, 2010 will be the year of Iran, in the sense that the Iranian nuclear programme will top Israel's priorities, said Mazen Hammad in an opinion piece for the Qatari newspaper Al Watan.

"Based on information leaked by Israeli officials, the use of force appears as one of the options against Tehran. Israel believes that a military plan should be in place if other solutions fail." In this case, Israel must have thought of upgrading its ability to protect its front if the Iranians attack in retaliation. Part of its preparedness would be to urge its allies in Europe and the US to exert more pressure on the Islamic Republic, including the threat to use force. But this is less likely to happen if Israel initiates a raid.

According to information widely circulated by air force commanders, Israel is able to strike Iran, but political leaders are more prudent about taking such a "hasty" decision. Moreover, Israel cannot decide alone on a massive raid without prior consent from its allies. This is because the Israelis cannot act against the will of the Americans, nor can they wage a war against a state which owns an important missile arsenal and whose population exceeds 70 million. Israel needs to get rid of its illusions that it still can impose a Middle Eastern system of its own design. "It also needs a wiser man who knows when to ring the emergency bell."

At this time each year, the world gives an account of their concerns, and Washington must be the centre of attention, said the UAE newspaper Akhbar al Arab in its editorial. The US maintains the leading role against terrorism, a phenomenon that has preoccupied the international community because it is a major threat to global peace and security. "There is a consensus that the US has failed in this mission which is a result of its unpopular approach and its policy of double standards in handling violence and terrorism. Some Americans think there is a benign terrorism and a malignant one. And this is the reason why the US did not succeed in persuading the world of its vision on fighting terrorism."

The US has erroneously opted for using force in an unjustified manner, which, in turn, has generated more violence as a reaction. The war on terror has thus entered a vicious circle, and this is seen in such hotspots as in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. It is necessary thus to review the means and strategies of addressing terrorism worldwide, starting with defining the concept of terrorism and then devising suitable methods - ideological, political and cultural - that are likely to help contain such an enduring phenomenon.

* Digest compiled by Mostapha Elmouloudi melmouloudi@thenational.ae

Company profile

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.