Political bickering and score-settling continues apace in Lebanon despite rapidly rising poverty and fears of a social explosion described by France on Wednesday as "alarming".
Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament that as the situation deteriorates, the risk of violence increases.
"The situation is alarming, with an economic, financial, social and humanitarian crisis now reinforced by the risks of the coronavirus," Mr Le Drian said. "The worsening social crisis ... risks increasing the risk of violence," raising the spectre of the Eastern Mediterranean country's 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.
He said the Lebanese government must implement reforms so that the international community could help the country. He would head to Beirut soon, he added, to make that clear to authorities
Beirut is already engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund for an emergency lifeline to halt the collapsing economy. But, rather than progress, the efforts to salvage the country appear to be going in reverse.
The currency is officially pegged at about 1507 liras to the dollar but passed the 9,000 mark on the black market this week. Unemployment is rocketing as companies fold. Even venerable institutions such as the American University of Beirut is facing ruin and may be forced to lay off a quarter of its staff and close whole departments.
A country known across the Middle East for its glamorous lifestyle and commercial savoir-faire, now projects images of people begging on the streets, scavenging in the garbage for something to eat or trading furniture for food.
Several current and former Lebanese officials, diplomats, international officials, economists and analysts agreed that talks with the IMF to rescue Lebanon from an economic crisis are going nowhere. And time is running out.
"This [IMF talks] is hitting the rocks," says Nasser Saidi, a former economy minister and central banker.
Most of the sources say the political class grouped around sectarian, dynastic rulers, far from agreeing a joint approach, is still arguing for their own interests – and even whether Lebanon is really bankrupt.
Two members of Lebanon's negotiating team have quit in a month, both over what they described as attempts to massage huge financial losses set out in the government plan.
"They are not negotiating a [IMF] programme", says one senior source privy to the talks. "There's no [Lebanese] consensus on the diagnosis so what can they possibly negotiate?"
Lebanon, with a population of 6 million, is fast running out of dollars. The state, its revenues collapsing, is printing local currency to pay public employees – an estimated 800,000-strong state payroll padded by politicians.
"There is a real risk of explosion," says one top western diplomat, adding that a third of a million people had lost their jobs since October, when mass protests against the entrenched political class forced the government to resign.
Deadlock over numbers and reform
As a lockdown imposed to fight Covid-19 unwinds, outrage that fuelled last autumn's protests is resurging, angrier now and with fire-bomb attacks on banks – the biggest target of popular ire after the political elites with which they are closely entwined.
A new government finally took its place early this year. Although it was billed as technocratic, its members are all nominees of the sectarian power-brokers.
Alongside technocrats are party placemen, and critics say Prime Minister Hassan Diab is beholden to his patrons, foremost among them the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah, its Christian allies headed by President Michel Aoun and the Shiite Amal party of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
Mr Diab has repeatedly denied his government favours political interests.
Ultimately, the country is bankrupt and is not going to be able to service all of its vast debt, much of which is held by its central bank and local lenders. But no one has come up with an agreed strategy to share out the losses among bank depositors, shareholders, foreign bondholders and the state.
The first challenge is accepting the size of the losses.
The IMF has endorsed government figures that suggest a shortfall of more than $90 billion (Dh 330.5 billion). But the banks, the central bank and members of parliament representing powerful political factions say it is only around half as big. Critics call that an accounting trick, based on a dubious exchange rate.
Mr Diab said in a statement on Tuesday that the government was committed to the figures in its plan. But political factions have lined up behind an effort to demand it lower its estimate of losses, in line with figures put forward by the central bank and banks.
Several sources said the IMF had tried to persuade the central bank to accept the higher numbers, but bank governor Riad Salameh was digging in his heels. Mr Salameh declined to comment and said he wasn't aware of such criticism.
A parliamentary fact-finding committee said on Wednesday it had calculated overall losses in the system at 60 trillion-122 trillion Lebanese lira, a range between a quarter and half the amount recognised by the government and accepted by the IMF.
"It's a big difference," said its chair, Ibrahim Kanaan of President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, flanked by MPs from all of the other main political parties. "These are the options which I hope the government will study ... so we can go into the next phase, the negotiation phase, with one delegation and one vision."
The IMF declined to comment on its discussions with Lebanese delegations, but referred to earlier remarks, including that the government's original figures are "broadly in the right order of magnitude".
"It is incredible that a bunch of parliamentarians in a failed state are trying to question the expertise of the IMF," Mr Saidi, the ex-minister, said. "There is no way the IMF is going to accept it."
Nor will accepting the numbers be enough. Lebanon must also tackle the cause of the problem: unsustainable government spending handed out by politicians to reward their supporters.
The inflated public payroll and its costly pensions will have to be cut. First on almost everyone's list is Electricite du Liban (EdL), the state power utility, which loses about $2bn a year.
To even start an IMF negotiation, the government will need to make "anchor" reforms that it has so far ignored. Customs, now under party fiefdom, must be placed under regulatory authority; a single treasury account must be set up for expenditures and revenues at the finance ministry; exchange rates must be unified.
Not rising to the crisis
Since October, depositors have been largely denied access to their dollar accounts. About three-quarters of all deposits are in dollars and the central bank and successive governments have used the banking system to finance the state, in what critics say is a national equivalent to a Ponzi scheme.
The pound has lost over 80 per cent of its value since mass protests against the sectarian ruling oligarchy erupted last October. The social consequences have been terrible.
Lebanon's middle class is sinking. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that some 48 per cent of Lebanese lived below the poverty line.
Food prices have doubled and unemployment has forced many onto charity and food banks. And if the state runs out of the dollars it has been spending to subsidise bread, medicine and fuel – as it must sooner or later without foreign aid – Lebanon could face mass hunger.
For decades, foreign donors led by France, the United States and Britain with periodic injections from Gulf Arab states, have kept Lebanon afloat.
But they are no longer willing to bail it out without reform.
If the IMF walks away, Beirut should not expect a rescue from countries that have helped in the past.
"If this road [IMF] is closed all other roads will be shut", says the western diplomat. "They need to have real, verifiable reforms as required by the IMF, even if they are not perfect."
"No European or Gulf Arab country, much less America is coming to save Lebanon; Lebanese leaders should muster the will to rescue their country." - Additional reporting by Reuters
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
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Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
more from Janine di Giovanni
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
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if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
The%20specs
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Price: From Dh529,000
Engine: 5-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 520hp
Torque: 625Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.8L/100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
