Lebanon-IMF talks hit 'rock bottom' as France fears violence


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Political bickering and score-settling continues apace in Lebanon despite rapidly rising poverty and fears of a social explosion described by France on Wednesday as "alarming".

Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament that as the situation deteriorates, the risk of violence increases.

"The situation is alarming, with an economic, financial, social and humanitarian crisis now reinforced by the risks of the coronavirus," Mr Le Drian said. "The worsening social crisis ... risks increasing the risk of violence," raising the spectre of the Eastern Mediterranean country's 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.

He said the Lebanese government must implement reforms so that the international community could help the country. He would head to Beirut soon, he added, to make that clear to authorities

Beirut is already engaged in talks with the International Monetary Fund for an emergency lifeline to halt the collapsing economy. But, rather than progress, the efforts to salvage the country appear to be going in reverse.

The currency is officially pegged at about 1507 liras to the dollar but passed the 9,000 mark on the black market this week. Unemployment is rocketing as companies fold. Even venerable institutions such as the American University of Beirut is facing ruin and may be forced to lay off a quarter of its staff and close whole departments.

A country known across the Middle East for its glamorous lifestyle and commercial savoir-faire, now projects images of people begging on the streets, scavenging in the garbage for something to eat or trading furniture for food.

Several current and former Lebanese officials, diplomats, international officials, economists and analysts agreed that talks with the IMF to rescue Lebanon from an economic crisis are going nowhere. And time is running out.

"This [IMF talks] is hitting the rocks," says Nasser Saidi, a former economy minister and central banker.

Most of the sources say the political class grouped around sectarian, dynastic rulers, far from agreeing a joint approach, is still arguing for their own interests – and even whether Lebanon is really bankrupt.

Two members of Lebanon's negotiating team have quit in a month, both over what they described as attempts to massage huge financial losses set out in the government plan.

"They are not negotiating a [IMF] programme", says one senior source privy to the talks. "There's no [Lebanese] consensus on the diagnosis so what can they possibly negotiate?"

Lebanon, with a population of 6 million, is fast running out of dollars. The state, its revenues collapsing, is printing local currency to pay public employees – an estimated 800,000-strong state payroll padded by politicians.

"There is a real risk of explosion," says one top western diplomat, adding that a third of a million people had lost their jobs since October, when mass protests against the entrenched political class forced the government to resign.

Deadlock over numbers and reform

As a lockdown imposed to fight Covid-19 unwinds, outrage that fuelled last autumn's protests is resurging, angrier now and with fire-bomb attacks on banks – the biggest target of popular ire after the political elites with which they are closely entwined.

A new government finally took its place early this year. Although it was billed as technocratic, its members are all nominees of the sectarian power-brokers.

Alongside technocrats are party placemen, and critics say Prime Minister Hassan Diab is beholden to his patrons, foremost among them the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah, its Christian allies headed by President Michel Aoun and the Shiite Amal party of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

Mr Diab has repeatedly denied his government favours political interests.

Ultimately, the country is bankrupt and is not going to be able to service all of its vast debt, much of which is held by its central bank and local lenders. But no one has come up with an agreed strategy to share out the losses among bank depositors, shareholders, foreign bondholders and the state.

The first challenge is accepting the size of the losses.

The IMF has endorsed government figures that suggest a shortfall of more than $90 billion (Dh 330.5 billion). But the banks, the central bank and members of parliament representing powerful political factions say it is only around half as big. Critics call that an accounting trick, based on a dubious exchange rate.

Mr Diab said in a statement on Tuesday that the government was committed to the figures in its plan. But political factions have lined up behind an effort to demand it lower its estimate of losses, in line with figures put forward by the central bank and banks.

Several sources said the IMF had tried to persuade the central bank to accept the higher numbers, but bank governor Riad Salameh was digging in his heels. Mr Salameh declined to comment and said he wasn't aware of such criticism.

A parliamentary fact-finding committee said on Wednesday it had calculated overall losses in the system at 60 trillion-122 trillion Lebanese lira, a range between a quarter and half the amount recognised by the government and accepted by the IMF.

"It's a big difference," said its chair, Ibrahim Kanaan of President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, flanked by MPs from all of the other main political parties. "These are the options which I hope the government will study ... so we can go into the next phase, the negotiation phase, with one delegation and one vision."

The IMF declined to comment on its discussions with Lebanese delegations, but referred to earlier remarks, including that the government's original figures are "broadly in the right order of magnitude".

"It is incredible that a bunch of parliamentarians in a failed state are trying to question the expertise of the IMF," Mr Saidi, the ex-minister, said. "There is no way the IMF is going to accept it."

Nor will accepting the numbers be enough. Lebanon must also tackle the cause of the problem: unsustainable government spending handed out by politicians to reward their supporters.

The inflated public payroll and its costly pensions will have to be cut. First on almost everyone's list is Electricite du Liban (EdL), the state power utility, which loses about $2bn a year.

To even start an IMF negotiation, the government will need to make "anchor" reforms that it has so far ignored. Customs, now under party fiefdom, must be placed under regulatory authority; a single treasury account must be set up for expenditures and revenues at the finance ministry; exchange rates must be unified.

Not rising to the crisis 

Since October, depositors have been largely denied access to their dollar accounts. About three-quarters of all deposits are in dollars and the central bank and successive governments have used the banking system to finance the state, in what critics say is a national equivalent to a Ponzi scheme.

The pound has lost over 80 per cent of its value since mass protests against the sectarian ruling oligarchy erupted last October. The social consequences have been terrible.

Lebanon's middle class is sinking. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that some 48 per cent of Lebanese lived below the poverty line.

Food prices have doubled and unemployment has forced many onto charity and food banks. And if the state runs out of the dollars it has been spending to subsidise bread, medicine and fuel – as it must sooner or later without foreign aid – Lebanon could face mass hunger.

For decades, foreign donors led by France, the United States and Britain with periodic injections from Gulf Arab states, have kept Lebanon afloat.

But they are no longer willing to bail it out without reform.

If the IMF walks away, Beirut should not expect a rescue from countries that have helped in the past.

"If this road [IMF] is closed all other roads will be shut", says the western diplomat. "They need to have real, verifiable reforms as required by the IMF, even if they are not perfect."

"No European or Gulf Arab country, much less America is coming to save Lebanon; Lebanese leaders should muster the will to rescue their country." - Additional reporting by Reuters

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Stars: John David Washington, Robert Pattinson, Elizabeth Debicki, Dimple Kapadia, Michael Caine, Kenneth Branagh 

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Profile of Udrive

Date started: March 2016

Founder: Hasib Khan

Based: Dubai

Employees: 40

Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.

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La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
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This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

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  • Former US president Barack Obama
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  • Former CIA director John Brennan at CNN's New York bureau
  • Former Attorney General Eric Holder (delivered to former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
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UAE team
1. Chris Jones-Griffiths 2. Gio Fourie 3. Craig Nutt 4. Daniel Perry 5. Isaac Porter 6. Matt Mills 7. Hamish Anderson 8. Jaen Botes 9. Barry Dwyer 10. Luke Stevenson (captain) 11. Sean Carey 12. Andrew Powell 13. Saki Naisau 14. Thinus Steyn 15. Matt Richards

Replacements
16. Lukas Waddington 17. Murray Reason 18. Ahmed Moosa 19. Stephen Ferguson 20. Sean Stevens 21. Ed Armitage 22. Kini Natuna 23. Majid Al Balooshi

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Date started: early 2020

Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh

Based: Abu Dhabi

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6.20pm: Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O’Meara

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7.30pm: Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Final Song, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor

White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogenChromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxideUltramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica contentOphiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on landOlivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour

W.
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(Rotana)

Cultural fiesta

What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421,  Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day. 

Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
  • Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
  • Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Ruwais timeline

1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established

1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants

1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed

1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.  

1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex

2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea

2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd

2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens

2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies

2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export

2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.

2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery 

2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital

2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13

Source: The National