Kurd-Turkish clashes feared along Syrian border



SAATLIKOY, TURKEY // In his house along the Turkish-Syrian border, Hasan Cakmak sometimes hears the crack of gunfire and the boom of exploding shells echoing from the south.

Like many other people who live along the frontier, those sounds of war often give him cause to pause and wonder about the fate of relatives living in Syria as the civil war there grinds on.

But for Mr Cakmak, an ethnic Kurd and leader of a Kurdish village, the din resounding across the landscape is worrying for yet another reason.

Separatist Kurdish rebels, some allegedly from Iraq, have taken control of pockets of territory in northern Syria in the vacuum left by the collapse of central government authority. That means Mr Cakmak and other Kurds who live in the shadow of Syria's widening conflict could become embroiled in clashes between Kurdish fighters and Turkey's armed forces.

"It is impossible not to be worried," said forty-eight-year-old Mr Cakmak this week. He is the chief of Saatlikoy, a hamlet of about 80 people in the south-eastern Turkish province of Kilis.

Turkish officials have already accused insurgents of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) of carrying out a bomb attack last week in Gaziantep, a city about 50 kilometres inside Turkey. The blast killed nine people, including four children.

The group, which has been fighting for Kurdish self-rule in south-eastern Turkey since 1984, recently moved into predominantly Kurdish areas in the north of Syria and took control of some towns, Mr Cakmak said.

"They are even opening up their own schools, PKK schools," he added. "The state schools are closed over there."

Referring to the PKK, the Turkish foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, has said that Ankara would not accept "terrorist structures" across the border in Syria.

Photographs published in Turkish newspapers of PKK flags flying above Syrian villages have triggered opposition accusations that government policy in Syria has failed.

Not all Kurds in Turkey, of course, are dismayed by these developments.

Some community leaders have welcomed growing Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, with some suggesting that Ankara is seeking a pretext to carry out cross-border military strikes against these experiments in self-rule for fear they could inspire similar initiatives among Turkey's Kurdish minority of about 12 million.

Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the Party for Peace and Democracy (BDP), said recently that developments in northern Syria showed that "the people are trying to erect their own administration" and warned Ankara not to interfere. The BDP is Turkey's main Kurdish party and is seen by Turkish nationalists as the PKK's political arm.

With the Turkish government's concerns about the situation in northern Syria growing daily, the PKK has stepped up attacks in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish south-east in what Turkish analysts describe as a campaign by the militants to create a Kurdish-ruled area that would include part of Turkey, Iraq and Syria.

Mr Demirtas said this week that the PKK was in control of wide stretches of the border area between Turkey and Iraq. He said that Turkey's military could reach its outposts in the area only by air. "Control on the ground has been taken over by the PKK."

The BDP's stance has angered nationalists in Ankara, who have called for the lifting of parliamentary immunity of some BDP politicians because they publicly met several PKK rebels and embraced the fighters. Some Turkish newspapers have suggested the BDP could be banned like other Kurdish parties before it.

Tensions are not limited to the political arena in Ankara. In Gaziantep, a crowd of Turks stoned buildings belonging to the BDP in the city hours after the bomb explosion last week.

"Within five minutes, officials were saying the attack had been organised by the PKK, and then we were attacked," Mehmet Sahin, a BDP leader in Gaziantep, said this week.

Mr Sahin said he suspected Turkish security forces planted the bomb in Gaziantep to prepare the country's public for an armed intervention in Syria. "They are trying to find a pretext to do something in Syria."

Huseyin Demir, another BDP representative in Gaziantep, said Ankara was thinking about creating a Turkish-controlled "safe zone" inside Syria "just because Kurds have taken over some towns" in the region. He predicted that Turkey would not be able to stop the trend towards Kurdish autonomy in Syria "not even with 10 safe zones".

Renewed tensions between the Ankara government and Kurds in both Syria and Turkey is one of the main repercussions of Syria's civil war, renewing debate about Kurdish identify and statehood.

Mr Sahin said the main problem is Turkey's refusal to recognise the Kurds as a people. "The Turkish state wants to create a unified people. Does the whole world have to be Turkish? We are Kurds, but they do not accept that."

In Saatlikoy, Mr Cakmak said he understood why some Kurds in south-eastern Turkey, witnesses to a decades-long counterinsurgency campaign by Turkish military forces, do not trust the state. But he insisted he did not regard the PKK as the sole representative of the Kurds, either.

"I am Kurdish, and I speak Kurdish as much as I like," he said, alluding to political reforms expanding the right to use the Kurdish language in Turkey. "But I learnt it from my ancestors. I didn't learn it from the PKK. You have to distinguish between Kurds and the PKK."

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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In

  • Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
  • Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
  • Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
  • Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
  • Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
  • Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
  • Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
  • Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
  • Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth

Out

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  • Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
  • Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
  • Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
  • Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
  • Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
  • Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
  • Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
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