Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem. AFP 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem. AFP 

Israel sees limits of Trump support with Syria pullout



Israeli leaders have lauded Donald Trump for his list of decisions in support of their country since taking office, but the mercurial president's withdrawal of US troops from Syria will not rank among them.

After Mr Trump's surprise announcement of the pullout last week, Israel is concerned over whether its main enemy Iran will have a freer hand to operate in the neighbouring country, analysts say.

Israel's response to the announcement has been measured - careful to point out that it respects the US decision, coupled with pledges to continue to defend its interests in Syria.

But beneath those public pronouncements are worries over whether Iran will seek to take advantage of the US absence from the war-torn country and if Russia will respond to Israel's calls to limit it.

Beyond that, the manner in which the decision was taken and announced - and US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis's resignation in response - may also give Israeli leaders pause, some analysts say.

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"Since it's our major ally, we want the United States to be strong ... and we want an ally which is being perceived in the region as strong and effective," said Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University who has written extensively on Syria.

"And I think that what worries some Israelis is what message does this decision - the way it was taken, what stood behind it - send to the region?"

The United States has only around 2,000 troops in Syria focused on fighting ISIS, but they have been deployed in two areas along the Iraqi border, helping keep Iranian movement into the country in check.

There have been warnings from Israel and others that Iran is seeking to form a "land bridge" across to the Mediterranean, and some analysts have said that the US withdrawal could help that effort.

With Iran supporting Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in his country's civil war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long pledged to keep it from entrenching itself militarily next door.

Israel has repeatedly taken action, carrying out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against what it says are Iranian military targets and advanced arms deliveries to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group.

With the United States pulling out, Israel may look more to Russia, which is also backing Mr Al Assad, to use its influence to limit Iran, some analysts say.

But that is not a given, and a friendly fire incident in September that led to a Russian plane being downed by Syrian air defences during an Israeli strike remains an issue.

The incident angered Russia and complicated Israel's operations in Syria, particularly after Moscow's delivery of the advanced S-300 air defence system there in response.

Mr Netanyahu and Israel's military chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, on Sunday sought to tamp down concerns over the withdrawal.

The Israeli premier has indicated he was not taken off-guard, saying he had spoken with Mr Trump two days before the December 19 announcement as well as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo the previous day.

"The decision to remove the 2,000 US soldiers from Syria won't change our consistent policy," Mr Netanyahu said on Sunday.

"We will continue to act against Iran's attempt to establish a military presence in Syria, and if the need arises, we will even expand our activities there."

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Mr Netanyahu and ex-military intelligence official, noted US troops were not directly involved in Israel's fight against Iran's presence in Syria.

But he said concerns over whether Iran will take advantage of the US withdrawal were legitimate.

"From now on, it will be a free ride for the Iranians and they will use the corridor logistically to enhance their capabilities to build the military forces in Syria and to help Hezbollah afterwards," he said.

An analysis by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank said "Israel is among the most important losers" of the withdrawal, along with the United States' Kurdish allies in Syria.

But Mr Netanyahu has vowed that Israel will continue to "defend ourselves" and Mr Eisenkot, the military chief of staff, called it "a significant event but it should not be overstated".

"For decades we've been handling this front alone," he said.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Ipaf in numbers

Established: 2008

Prize money:  $50,000 (Dh183,650) for winners and $10,000 for those on the shortlist.

Winning novels: 13

Shortlisted novels: 66

Longlisted novels: 111

Total number of novels submitted: 1,780

Novels translated internationally: 66