Coronavirus lockdowns appear to have reduced the threat of ISIS attacks in many countries, but the risk is greater in Iraq and Syria, a UN official said Monday.
While ISIS is now a shadow of the organisation that occupied large chunks of Iraq and Syria just a few years ago, it still has an estimated 10,000 fighters between those two countries.
However, movement curbs against the virus pandemic have reduced ISIS's ability to launch raids elsewhere.
"Measures to minimise the spread of Covid-19, such as lockdowns and restrictions on movement, seem to have reduced the risk of terrorist attacks in many countries," said Vladimir Voronkov, undersecretary general for counter-terrorism.
He did not specify which nations, but ISIS has claimed attacks in countries ranging from France to the Philippines.
Mr Voronkov said the pandemic's impact on the group's recruitment and finances is unclear, though the threat of cybercrime as a funding source has increased as more people are online due to the contagion.
He added there is evidence ISIS are regrouping in conflict zones like Iraq and Syria.
Yet for the moment, authorities have not seen a clear indication of a strategy change under new leader Amir Mohammed Said Abd Al Rahman Al Mawla, who replaced Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi after his death in a raid by US special forces in October.
A former officer in the army of Saddam Hussein, Mawla joined the ranks of Al Qaeda after the US invasion of Iraq and Hussein's capture in 2003, according to the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) think-tank.
Mr Voronkov also provided an update on the group's activities elsewhere, saying ISIS has an estimated 3,500 fighters in West Africa, and has continued to build ties with local extremist groups.
In Libya, ISIS fighters are in the hundreds, but the group remains a threat to the region.
It also has capacity to launch devastating attacks in parts of Afghanistan, despite the arrest of some leaders and the loss of some of its territory, Mr Voronkov said.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time
Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.
Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.
The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.
The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.
Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.
The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.
• Bloomberg
