BAGHDAD // An increase in Al Qaeda attacks and a dysfunctional government have raised fears in Iraq about the resurgence of the Mahdi Army and the sectarian violence that could come with it.
The concern has been deepened by the scheduled departure of US forces by 2012, and many of Iraq's Shiite majority see the hardline Islamist militia as their only protection from insecurity and chaos.
At least two people were killed and a dozen others injured yesterday when a suicide bomber in a wheelchair blew himself up at a police station 25km north of Baghdad. On Thursday, more than 20 people were killed in multiple bomb attacks in a Shiite neighbourhood in the capital.
The strikes were the latest in a wave of insurgent assaults that have also hit Baghdad's central bank and government buildings in outlying provinces.
Even before the attacks, there had been talk within Baghdad's Shiite community that government forces may not be capable of providing security. Now, there are increasingly vocal calls for the return of the feared Shiite militia.
The Mahdi Army, military wing of the movement led by the anti-American cleric Muqtada Al Sadr, fought US and Iraqi government forces after the 2003 invasion, and was implicated in sectarian-based violence.
However, it was considered by many of the Shiite majority at the time to be a protection force against Al Qaeda-inspired militants. As the sectarian civil war that consumed Iraq between 2005 and 2007 began to wind down, the need for the Mahdi Army subsided. By 2008, it had been defeated and disbanded.
Critics now worry that the militia, which supporters claim can call on 150,000 fighters, will pick up weapons if a new security vacuum opens up when Iraq's army and police take over from the departing Americans.
Some Shiites are already saying they want it back."The only thing that stopped the Shiites being killed in 2005 and 2006 was the Mahdi Army. It stopped Al Qaeda when no one else could," said Wedat Sabri, a lawyer from the Amira district of Baghdad.
"I would feel more secure if the Mahdi Army were protecting us from Al Qaeda gangs," she said. "I have no faith in the government security forces. The Mahdi Army actually wants to protect its people and it is capable of doing so."
Last month, in a mass march in Baghdad, Mr Al Sadr told supporters that the force had been reorganised and would resume its armed struggle against US troops if they had not pulled out by the end of the year as scheduled.
The show of power on the streets of Baghdad deepened fears among Sunnis and secularists of a Shiite-dominated, Iran-backed campaign to control the country.
Sectarian tensions worsened after the televised confessions of Sunni extremists convicted of a wedding-day massacre in 2006, their gruesome testimonies stoking fears among Shiites.
An account of one of the most notorious atrocities committed since 2003 told how Sunni militants had tortured and murdered Shiite men, women and children in the town of Dujail.
Although the mastermind was convicted this month, security forces said another 20 suspects remained at large. For many Iraqis, the coverage brought back searing memories of war and sectarian discord and added to fears about what lies ahead in the absence of a US-backed security force.
Abu Laith, a Shiite restaurant owner who lives in Baghdad's upmarket Mansour district, said: "When I saw the details of the wedding massacre I invited the Mahdi Army back to my neighbourhood. It's time for the government to admit it cannot stop Al Qaeda and for the Mahdi Army to come back. I know I can trust them."
The sense of rising instability has led to accusations from Iraq's divided political blocs, each charging their rivals with incompetence, authoritarian tendencies or fearmongering.
Sunni-dominated groups and secular nationalists say the Mahdi Army want any excuse to return and will push an Iranian agenda. The Sadrists insist the US military is looking for any pretext to stay past their mandate. Bahaa Al Araji, a Sadrist parliamentarian, who accused US forces of staging attacks blamed on Al Qaeda, said: "Now the Americans are conducting these [insurgent] operations to sustain their presence in the country."
Such allegations have been dismissed by analysts who blame rising insecurity on a failure to heal political schisms and the inadequacies of Iraqi security forces.
Saadoun Al Mayahi, an Iraq analyst and an expert on Islamic extremist groups, said: "Al Qaeda has been attacking again and that reminds people of the bad days of 2006 and 2007. The Americans want to build strong Iraqi security services but al Qa eda has sensed the army, intelligence and police are weakened by political conflict and see their chance to sow chaos."
Despite entering a national coalition government under the prime minister, Nouri al Maliki, at the end of last year, Iraq's main political factions continue to dispute vital polices and major ministerial portfolios, including the security ministries of defence and interior.
Ahmad Al Khafaji, an independent political analyst in Baghdad, said: "Iraqi politicians will use sectarianism and will feed hatred of other groups to try to get what they want. Iraq is on edge and people are afraid again."
nlatif@thenational.ae
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5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: M'A Yaromoon, Jesus Rosales (jockey), Khalifa Al Neydai (trainer)
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: No Riesgo Al Maury, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Mahmouda, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AS Jezan, George Buckell, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Dolman, Antonio Fresu, Bhupath Seemar
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
The biog
Favourite Quote: “Real victories are those that protect human life, not those that result from its destruction emerge from its ashes,” by The late king Hussain of Jordan.
Favourite Hobby: Writing and cooking
Favourite Book: The Prophet by Gibran Khalil Gibran
BEACH SOCCER WORLD CUP
Group A
Paraguay
Japan
Switzerland
USA
Group B
Uruguay
Mexico
Italy
Tahiti
Group C
Belarus
UAE
Senegal
Russia
Group D
Brazil
Oman
Portugal
Nigeria
Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Supercharged%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20400hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20430Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh450%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
PRO BASH
Thursday’s fixtures
6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors
10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters
Teams
Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.
Squad rules
All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.
Tournament rules
The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions