The number of Iraqis returning to their areas of origin has surpassed those who remain internally displaced for the first time since December 2013, the International Organisation for Migration has said.
At the end of last year IOM identified 3.2 million people who had returned to their homes since January 2014, compared with 1,370,862 at the end of 2016 and 468,780 at the end of 2015.
The war with ISIL has led to the displacement of nearly 6 million Iraqis since January 2014, with 3.4 million in March 2016 being the highest number of people displaced at any one time. At the end of last year 2.6 million people remained internally displaced.
"The significant return trends monitored in the last few months are largely due to the retaking of all Iraqi areas by the Iraqi Security Forces," IOM media and communications officer Sandra Black told The National. "This, coupled with the improved security situation, has encouraged large groups of displaced individuals to return to their place of origin."
It marks the first time since ISIL's 2014 blitzkrieg in Iraq that the number of people returning to their towns and cities has surpassed those still internally displaced. More than 1.2 million people have returned to Anbar province, while 30 and 14 per cent of the population has returned to Nineveh and Salah Al Din provinces respectively.
The three provinces were the worst affected by ISIL's occupation, accounting for 86 per cent of the internally displaced population. Anbaris were the first to suffer the brutal rule of the extremist group, beginning in late 2013, while Nineveh's Yazidis were subject to systematic persecution, killing and enslavement in the summer of 2014.
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Read more:
Displaced Iraqis forcibly returned home, where ISIL booby-traps abound
Down but not out: ISIL will regroup and rise again
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According to IOM, intra-governorate returns of internally displaced persons (IDPs) account for 55 per cent of returnees. The most significant concentration of IDPs is currently in Nineveh (57 per cent), which has an intra-governorate internally displaced population of 97 per cent.
Images taken this month in Wana village, west of Mosul, show children in colourful garb carrying zip-locked bags stuffed with bright acrylic blankets, often found in Iraqi households. Other returnees lug large rolled-up carpets and IOM non-food item kits back to their homes after months or sometimes even years of displacement.
A large number of houses were either totally or partially destroyed during the violent battle between ISIL and coalition-backed Iraqi forces. Countless buildings can be seen to bear the scars of the violent conflict.
According to the IOM, nearly one third of returnees are reported to have returned to houses that have suffered significant to complete damage and 60 per cent to moderately damaged residences. "[In] the long term, the intention to return is high among IDPs. [In] the short term, the preference is to voluntarily integrate locally," said the IOM's Ms Black.
The latest figure for returnees comes just days after refugees and aid workers revealed that a large number of displaced Iraqis were being forcefully returned to their areas of origin to ensure that the country's upcoming election takes place on time. People must be in their area of origin to vote and if they do not return home, this could delay the election.
Aid workers estimated that between 2,400 and 5,000 people had been forcibly returned by the Iraqi army between November 21 last year and January 2.
"These returns are not safe," one aid worker told Reuters. "Even those who don't openly resist really have no other choice. They cannot really say no to a bunch of people with guns."
Displaced people who return home prematurely are likely to face a number of obstacles to reintegration.
"UNHCR strongly discourages return movements until necessary services are in place, and continues to advocate with authorities to facilitate return only when the necessary minimal conditions are met, and to promote the availability of information to IDPs about conditions in their home areas," UNHCR spokesperson Kate Pond told The National.
While most displaced Iraqis want to return to their homes, doing so prematurely exposes them to possible death from booby-traps or acts of vigilantism.
“Sustainable return is not just about bricks and mortar," said UNHCR representative to Iraq Bruno Geddo. "Rebuilding and restoring communities is a holistic process, covering everything from clearing explosive hazards to repairing damage to infrastructure to restoring basic services, and facilitating social cohesion so that communities can again begin to flourish.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
