A year in, Iraq’s protest movement has yet to achieve its aim of wholesale political change and risks being snuffed out by widespread violence and intimidation at the hands of the security forces and militias coupled with the Covid-19 pandemic, experts and activists say.
Since last October, thousands of Iraqis have taken to the streets to demand the replacement of the political system that has left public services crumbling and overseen the rise of overwhelming corruption. Their demands were met with live fire and deadly force.
Nearly 600 protesters have been killed, dozens kidnapped and tens of thousands left with life-changing injuries, but little has changed on the ground.
While the movement – and ultimately, the violence that faced it – forced the resignation of prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, little systemic change has been made.
"Not much has changed, accountability for those killed have not been made, electoral law has not changed in the way we would have hoped, we wanted to put an end to the sectarian divides in parliament. We've not seen any deep-rooted changes," Inas Jabbar, a human-rights activist from Baghdad told The National.
While protesters managed to maintain momentum in the face of bullets and teargas, by the time the global pandemic forced the government to order people to stay home in mid-March, momentum was waning.
“There is a willingness from the public to re-engage in the movement, but threats, assassinations and coronavirus have impacted and reduced its momentum,” Ms Jabber said.
She participated in last year's protests and said ahead of the anniversary that demonstrators would be back in Tahrir Square, the epicentre of Baghdad's rallies on Thursday to mark the anniversary because the government has not met their demands.
Protesters called for sweeping changes to Iraq's political system, put in place after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.
The May election of Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi, who says he wants to implement the changes demanded on the streets and hold early elections, broke the political deadlock.
But, experts warn that he will not be able to deliver the systemic shift many on the street want to see.
“The Iraqi situation is beyond a place where incremental reform could work,” said Renad Mansour, senior researcher and Iraq expert at the London-based Chatham House said.
Neither the government nor political parties have been able to respond to the public’s needs, so Iraqis will continue to protest he said.
"They haven't addressed the roots of the Iraqi state that these protesters are rising up against. So, until they are addressed, changing a person or a post here or there, won't work," Mr Mansour told The National.
While the demands on the street are numerous, one issue that highlights the difficulty Mr Al Kadhimi faces is in compensating the families of protesters killed or wounded by security forces or prosecuting officers responsible.
“The government has not even compensated those injured by security forces, there has been little contact made with them,” Ms Jabbar said.
Delivering accountability is even more of a challenge because those responsible are protected by the security forces or have powerful political cover, Lahib Higel, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Iraq, told The National.
Such has been the crackdown and internal divisions, the expert says it is unlikely Iraq will see demonstrations on the scale of the peak of the movement.
“One reason is that protesters have different visions for how to carry on the struggle. Another is the violence and intimidation that many mobilisers have faced,” she said.
But Belkis Wille, a senior crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch, said protesters today have an even more reason to take to the streets than they did a year ago. While the movement was initially powered by anger at the system’s failings, there is now the anger at the killing of demonstrators and the government's inability to hold the perpetrators to account while still failing to pass reforms.
"The question is going to be whether this government is able to control the security forces across the country and ensure respect for the protesters' safety. And we don't yet know the answer to that," Ms Wille told The National.
While the pandemic and violence appeared to reduce the numbers taking to the streets each week, Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the London School of Economics, told The National, said that the protests have already returned but are more geographically diffused across the south and no longer centrally focused on downtown Baghdad.
“They could well explode again on the October anniversary. But they are not yet as strong as last year because of the sustained, mostly covert, violent repression delivered by the militias,” he said.
This campaign of repression has broken up the protest leadership but, along with Covid-19, has also discouraged all but the most tenacious from taking to the streets, Mr Dodge said.
Raid Madhaa, a protester whose murals in Tahrir Square became a symbol of the protests, said the demonstrations started to disintegrate in February following the outbreak of coronavirus and was derailed by infiltrators.
"They really ruined the movement, a friend of mine was going to get killed because of the infiltrators. People are in two minds when it comes to participating this year – they are worried about their safety and feel that their voices are not heard," Mr Madhaa told The National.
“I’ll be there on Thursday, but will be monitoring the situation from far away because there is a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen this week,” he said.
Dubai Rugby Sevens, December 5 -7
World Sevens Series Pools
A – Fiji, France, Argentina, Japan
B – United States, Australia, Scotland, Ireland
C – New Zealand, Samoa, Canada, Wales
D – South Africa, England, Spain, Kenya
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Have you been targeted?
Tuan Phan of SimplyFI.org lists five signs you have been mis-sold to:
1. Your pension fund has been placed inside an offshore insurance wrapper with a hefty upfront commission.
2. The money has been transferred into a structured note. These products have high upfront, recurring commission and should never be in a pension account.
3. You have also been sold investment funds with an upfront initial charge of around 5 per cent. ETFs, for example, have no upfront charges.
4. The adviser charges a 1 per cent charge for managing your assets. They are being paid for doing nothing. They have already claimed massive amounts in hidden upfront commission.
5. Total annual management cost for your pension account is 2 per cent or more, including platform, underlying fund and advice charges.
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
Honeymoonish
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
The view from The National
Plan to boost public schools
A major shake-up of government-run schools was rolled out across the country in 2017. Known as the Emirati School Model, it placed more emphasis on maths and science while also adding practical skills to the curriculum.
It was accompanied by the promise of a Dh5 billion investment, over six years, to pay for state-of-the-art infrastructure improvements.
Aspects of the school model will be extended to international private schools, the education minister has previously suggested.
Recent developments have also included the introduction of moral education - which public and private schools both must teach - along with reform of the exams system and tougher teacher licensing requirements.
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THE BIO
Age: 30
Favourite book: The Power of Habit
Favourite quote: "The world is full of good people, if you cannot find one, be one"
Favourite exercise: The snatch
Favourite colour: Blue
THE 12 BREAKAWAY CLUBS
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Generational responses to the pandemic
Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:
Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.
Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.
if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Handicap | US$135,000 (Dirt) | 1,400 metres
7.05pm: Handicap | $135,000 (Turf) | 1,200m
7.40pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (T) | 2,000m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks | Group 3 | $250,000 (D) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile | Group 2 | $250,000 (T) | 1,600m
9.20pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.