Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently described the assassinated Iranian Quds Force general Qassem Suleimani as a "dedicated warrior" and a "master strategist" who found a way to sway his audiences, whether fighters in the Iraqi desert or in meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.
A year on from the US strike that killed Suleimani near Baghdad airport, experts say Iran is still reeling from the loss of its master strategist but also that the US has not established “the real deterrence” it had sought from the operation.
Suleimani was no average spymaster for Tehran.
He was the linchpin that connected Iran’s proxy networks from Baghdad to Sanaa. A fluent Arabic speaker, a ruthless military operator who expanded the Quds Force reach into Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and deep into Lebanon after the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
One year since his killing, one author who chronicled Suleimani’s life says he is irreplaceable and that Iran has acknowledged that.
Qassem Suleimani has proven to be irreplaceable … the regime has accepted that Soleimani was simply irreplaceable and has downgraded the position of Quds Force commander to more of a coordinator
"Qassem Suleimani has proven to be irreplaceable ... the regime [in Iran] has accepted that Suleimani was simply irreplaceable and has downgraded the position of Quds Force commander to more of a co-ordinator," says Arash Azizi, author of Shadow Commander: Soleimani, US and Iran's Global Ambition.
Brig Gen Ismail Qaani, Suleimani’s deputy, stepped into the role as head of the Quds Force, but has failed to pick up the many strands of Iranian influence in the region, including in exerting influence over Iraqi militias that his former boss cultivated and built.
"Not only [does] Qaani lack the charisma, when it comes to the personal relationship with Arab militias and the operational know-how he is no match for his predecessor," Mr Azizi tells The National.
“Suleimani was able to command a transnational army of thousands of soldiers; he famously was capable of having breakfast in Tehran, lunch in Baghdad and dinner in Beirut or Damascus,” the expert says.
Suleimani’s personal relations – the footage of him paying condolences to families of dead fighters, having tea with Arab tribes and counselling Hezbollah members – made him indispensable in that role.
“There were instances in which he went to Hezbollah's leadership and asked for a dozen field commanders to be sent to Iraq immediately. He could do this because he had a personal relationship with many of these people and because he was able to move seamlessly between the battlegrounds,” Mr Azizi says.
In contrast, Brig Gen Qaani has reportedly been to Iraq only twice in the past year and is under bigger financial constraints because of the effect of sanctions on Iran.
Still, the Iranian regime has managed to maintain its influence in other ways in areas that Suleimani commanded.
They have increased attacks on US interests in Iraq, maintained levers of power in Damascus and Beirut as well as continued to supply weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.
This runs against the Trump administration’s argument that the assassination of Suleimani would restore deterrence, curb Tehran from killing Americans and discourage Iran’s malign regional activities.
Ariane Tabatabai, a Middle East fellow at the Alliance For Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund, says she saw little to no change in Iranian behaviour in the year since the killing of Suleimani.
“We tend to forget that two Americans were killed [in a rocket attack in Iraq] back in March, and from the recent reporting, it doesn’t seem like the proxies are trying to minimise casualties in their attacks,” Ms Tabatabai says.
"None of that screams deterrence success ... and in terms of the impact of Suleimani's death for Iran, strategically, as we expected, there hasn't been a shift," says the author of No Conquest, No Defeat.
The expert acknowledges the operational void that Suleimani left, and that it has not been “smooth sailing” for Brig Gen Qaani.
But she also points out that the decision-makers in Tehran could be waiting Mr Trump out before deciding their next operational road map with a new administration.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, says that in assassinating Suleimani, “the US removed Iran’s most feared and competent battlefield commander”.
Although, rather than a deterrence, he says “one must not underestimate the regime’s thirst for revenge but so far it has held back on the correct assumptions that Trump would respond severely and that Biden is committed to returning to the JCPOA and lifting the most powerful economic sanctions”.
But he says Iran could be miscalculating in assuming that president-elect Joe Biden would completely flip the table on Mr Trump’s strategy.
“The regime may calculate that it’s better to wait to first get hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into their coffers before launching any revenge attack to Suleimani’s killing, but they may also assume, wrongly, that a Biden administration would be less likely to respond to an attack against Americans,” Mr Dubowitz says.
The money that the expert is referencing would be from sanctions relief if the Biden administration agrees to return to the nuclear deal that Mr Trump abandoned in 2018.
Colin Clarke, a senior research fellow at The Soufan Centre, says he sees the argument of deterrence being weakened by Mr Trump's downsizing of the number of US troops in Iraq and withdrawing 500 personnel by January 15.
“As the US draws down its forces in Iraq, Iran is increasing its influence, which means that many Iran-backed Iraqi militias will be further emboldened,” Mr Clarke says.
“Iran still regularly attacks US interests in Iraq through its proxy forces, has grown its foreign fighter network throughout the region, still supplies Houthi rebels in Yemen with increasingly sophisticated weaponry, and Hezbollah remains among the most capable violent non-state actors in the world,” Mr Clarke says.
While the Suleimani killing may have derailed Iran operationally, the strategic long game of expanding its proxy influence and testing the Biden team is the one that looms large a year on from the assassination.
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A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
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