Rory Stewart made his name as an adventurer who walked from the Arabian Gulf to Kabul in 2001 before becoming a British Cabinet minister.
But when Mr Stewart looks at Iran now, he says it is in danger of becoming a modern version of isolated and impoverished Myanmar.
The country is in danger of being stuck in decades of lost growth under an autocratic regime that is stuck in the 1970s, he told The National.
Mr Stewart said that when Iran eventually freed itself from its fundamentalist leadership, it would find itself in a terrifying position with a backward economy and an oppressed society lacking the skills found in advanced economies.
To some extent Iran is in danger of being frozen in the late '70s
“Iran is losing years of growth and is increasingly in danger of becoming like Myanmar under the generals, where Myanmar ‘lost’ 50 or 60 years," the former London mayoral candidate said.
"And when it popped out, you felt that things hadn't really changed since the 1950s.
“To some extent, Iran is in danger of being frozen in the late '70s and that will mean when it comes back into the world, it’s going to face a very, very serious and terrifying set of adjustments.”
The contrast with the progress around other areas of the Arabian Gulf should give Tehran pause as it looks to confrontation over dialogue.
Despite the problems with Iran, Mr Stewart believed that people in the Gulf were becoming increasingly prosperous, with better health and education standards.
“Living standards are being transformed and will continue to be transformed powerfully over the next 20 or 30 years, and people whose grandparents will have had very little will end up in a very prosperous situation," he said.
"What kind of civilisation and what kind of science and technology emerges from that remains to be seen.”
Mr Stewart, who was a contender to become Britain's prime minister during the Conservative leadership race last year, believes that with Covid-19, sanctions and low oil prices, Iran is in a dangerously weak position.
A writer and now lecturer in contemporary politics at Yale University in the US, he has travelled extensively across the Middle East in his time as a politician, diplomat and travel writer.
Mr Stewart believes the effect of Covid-19 on the region could lead to Britain and America’s power and influence diminishing, with both suffering severe recessions.
“It’s very important to see Covid as the great distractor of global attention that has replaced the Middle East in the headlines," he said.
"We’re likely to see a Middle East over the next five to 10 years with much less US and European involvement. And that could be a good thing or a bad thing.
"But it’s a very unusual thing because really over the last 100 years they have played an incredibly strong part in the creation of states, the sustaining or the toppling of regimes and almost every aspect of politics and economy. So that's a really big shift.”
Suleimani killing could have been 'tinder box moment'
He also suggested that the US assassination of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani could have been a tinder box moment similar to the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which sparked the First World War in 1914.
Mr Stewart, the former secretary of state for international development, was concerned that the Gulf region was heading towards the Great Power struggles that culminated in the slaughter of the 1914-1918 war.
In that atmosphere, one small incident “can spark you into war", and the drone killing of the Quds Force commander in Iraq in January this year “brought us very close to an extreme Iranian reaction”.
With a hostile and aggressive mindset, one country can drag both its neighbours and leading power centres around the world into unwanted conflict.
“It was something that felt to me for a moment a bit like the assassination of the Archduke in Austria, a relatively small thing that tipped the Europe into war,” Mr Stewart said from his new home in Connecticut.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Fixture: Liechtenstein v Italy, Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match is shown on BeIN Sports
Cracks in the Wall
Ben White, Pluto Press
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Gifts exchanged
- King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
- Queen Camilla - Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
- Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
- Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Top tips to avoid cyber fraud
Microsoft’s ‘hacker-in-chief’ David Weston, creator of the tech company’s Windows Red Team, advises simple steps to help people avoid falling victim to cyber fraud:
1. Always get the latest operating system on your smartphone or desktop, as it will have the latest innovations. An outdated OS can erode away all investments made in securing your device or system.
2. After installing the latest OS version, keep it patched; this means repairing system vulnerabilities which are discovered after the infrastructure components are released in the market. The vast majority of attacks are based on out of date components – there are missing patches.
3. Multi-factor authentication is required. Move away from passwords as fast as possible, particularly for anything financial. Cybercriminals are targeting money through compromising the users’ identity – his username and password. So, get on the next level of security using fingertips or facial recognition.
4. Move your personal as well as professional data to the cloud, which has advanced threat detection mechanisms and analytics to spot any attempt. Even if you are hit by some ransomware, the chances of restoring the stolen data are higher because everything is backed up.
5. Make the right hardware selection and always refresh it. We are in a time where a number of security improvement processes are reliant on new processors and chip sets that come with embedded security features. Buy a new personal computer with a trusted computing module that has fingerprint or biometric cameras as additional measures of protection.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
'Ashkal'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Youssef%20Chebbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fatma%20Oussaifi%20and%20Mohamed%20Houcine%20Grayaa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
Revival
Eminem
Interscope
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m. Winner: Majd Al Megirat, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Shehhi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m. Winner: Dassan Da, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Heba Al Wathba, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m. Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m. Winner: Harbour Spirit, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday Sassuolo v Torino (Kick-off 10.45pm UAE)
Saturday Atalanta v Sampdoria (5pm),
Genoa v Inter Milan (8pm),
Lazio v Bologna (10.45pm)
Sunday Cagliari v Crotone (3.30pm)
Benevento v Napoli (6pm)
Parma v Spezia (6pm)
Fiorentina v Udinese (9pm)
Juventus v Hellas Verona (11.45pm)
Monday AC Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Saturday's results
Women's third round
- 14-Garbine Muguruza Blanco (Spain) beat Sorana Cirstea (Romania) 6-2, 6-2
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4. 6-0
- Coco Vandeweghe (USA) beat Alison Riske (USA) 6-2, 6-4
- 9-Agnieszka Radwanska (Poland) beat 19-Timea Bacsinszky (Switzerland) 3-6, 6-4, 6-1
- Petra Martic (Croatia) beat Zarina Diyas (Kazakhstan) 7-6, 6-1
- Magdalena Rybarikova (Slovakia) beat Lesia Tsurenko (Ukraine) 6-2, 6-1
- 7-Svetlana Kuznetsova (Russia) beat Polona Hercog (Slovenia) 6-4, 6-0
Men's third round
- 13-Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria) beat Dudi Sela (Israel) 6-1, 6-1 -- retired
- Sam Queery (United States) beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) 6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
- 6-Milos Raonic (Canada) beat 25-Albert Ramos (Spain) 7-6, 6-4, 7-5
- 10-Alexander Zverev (Germany) beat Sebastian Ofner (Austria) 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
- 11-Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) beat David Ferrer (Spain) 6-3, 6-4, 6-3
- Adrian Mannarino (France) beat 15-Gael Monfils (France) 7-6, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2
