Hopes for Jordan's economic recovery



"There is one simple question that, to my best of knowledge, no one has as yet has raised in Jordan: is there any prospect for the economic situation to improve next year?" asked Fahd al Fanek in an opinion piece for the Jordanian newspaper Al Rai. If a survey were undertaken in this regard, the majority would most likely express pessimism and expect a dim economic outlook in 2010.

In 2009, economic indicators were inconsistent in Jordan: some positive, others negative. With a partial recovery of the world economy, there is a likelihood that the overall economy will heal as primary estimates indicated positive growth next year of no less than 4 per cent. Such sectors as tourism, imports and exports are also expected to increase, which will cushion this year's budget deficit.

With a low inflation rate of 4 per cent, the government and the private sector will to offer the usual salary raises to safeguard a minimum standard of living for the low income segments of society. There is a great hope, though, that next year will be better as many development programmes - halted as a protective measure during the height of the financial meltdown - will be resumed as banks are showing signs of recovery.

The recent call by Lebanon's speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, to abolish political sectarianism has prompted a heated debate among various Lebanese political forces, wrote Bassam al Dhaw in an opinion piece for the Qatari newspaper Al Watan.  This step should not be seen as new one because the proposal was first mentioned in the Taif agreement of 1989, which stipulated the formation of a national commission for the abolition of sectarianism.

Mr Berri's call was met by fierce opposition by all influential political forces. "But what are the motives behind such a reaction? The main reason lies in the interrelated political interests which govern Lebanese politics. If the proposal were implemented, it would bring into being great changes that would affect three main areas: the composition of government authority, the system of political values, and the nature of social and economic relations in Lebanon." As a result, the state would replace the sect and be the standard for rule. This would also lead to the cancellation of the present quota system of governance. Any change would directly affect the individual interests of the current political elite.

"We cannot go back in time and demand that our mothers stay at home to take care of their families and children from dawn to dusk as they used to do in the past," remarked Fadheela al Muaini in an opinion piece for the UAE newspaper Al Bayan.

Mothers in the UAE used to be the first to wake up and the last to go to bed. During the entire day, the mother was busy preparing meals for all members of the family and making sure that everyone was around the table for the main course and for tea.  Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to keep to that routine because of time constraints. Members of the family can barely meet once a day around the dining table.

Takeaway snacks and restaurants have replaced the traditional gathering to savour a homemade meal and have a pleasant family chat. Because of modern life's requirements, members of the same family are living under the same roof, but they rarely meet or socialise. Such a social "dislocation" needs to be addressed by the Federal Demographics and Emiratisation Council. Measures to be taken should include, for instance, reorganising women's working hours so that they can have ample time to take care of their children and better manage the household.

"Two Palestinian leaders are capturing popular attention at the current stage. The first, Marwan Barghouti, is behind bars, and the second, Mohammed Dahlan, is the media official of the Fatah movement. In the middle, Mahmoud Abbas, president of Palestinian Authority, is shuttling back and forth between Latin America and the Arab countries, noted Subhi Zuaitar in a lead article for the Saudi paper Al Watan. 

Mr Barghouti, detained for his role in the two intifadas, enjoys the wide support and respect of all Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas. If he is released today in a prisoner exchange deal, he will definitely be the future Palestinian president. He will also be able to help in solving a great many of the pending issues between the two major Palestinian political forces.  If he stays in detention, that will benefit Mr Dahlan, who has always aspired to the presidency since the era of Yasser Arafat. It will serve him right if Mr Barghouti remains away from the political scene and if conflicts between Fatah and Hamas continue.

Both men have the same political affiliation, yet their popularity varies greatly, and this makes the difference. * Digest compiled by Mostapha Elmouloudi melmouloudi@thenational.ae

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

UAE Tour 2020

Stage 1: The Pointe Palm Jumeirah - Dubai Silicon Oasis, 148km
Stage 2: Hatta - Hatta Dam, 168km​​​​​​​
Stage 3: Al Qudra Cycle Track - Jebel Hafeet, 184km​​​​​​​
Stage 4: Zabeel Park - Dubai City Walk, 173km​​​​​​​
Stage 5: Al Ain - Jebel Hafeet, 162km​​​​​​​
Stage 6: Al Ruwais - Al Mirfa, 158km​​​​​​​
Stage 7: Al Maryah Island - Abu Dhabi Breakwater, 127km

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

Libya's Gold

UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves. 

The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.

Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo

The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
​​​​​​​Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten

Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a  month before Reaching the Last Mile.

Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

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