Beirut // When the Sunni-led "March 14" political alliance won Lebanon's tightly-contested parliamentary elections in June, many politicians and pundits warned that a failure by the incoming prime minister, Saad Hariri, to quickly broker a compromise with the Hizbollah-led opposition could return Lebanon to the sectarian violence that almost sent the country back to civil war in 2008.
Although a government has yet to materialise after more than three months of often bitter debates, there has been no violence, as both Mr Hariri and the Hizbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have avoided troublesome rhetoric even as their talks have repeatedly failed to broker an agreement.
As perhaps the single most powerful person in Lebanon, Mr Nasrallah has far more tools for pressuring the majority into concessions, ranging from a military power that far exceeds even the Lebanese army, to the ability to send hundreds of thousands of devoted supporters to the streets in protest within a few hours. But instead, Mr Nasrallah appears to be content to let the talks progress, while using conciliatory language towards his political enemies.
Even with Mr Hariri's resignation two weeks ago after failing to deliver a government because of a dispute with Hizbollah's only major Christian ally, Michel Aoun, over control of the critical telecommunications ministry, Mr Nasrallah dampened expectations that a return to the violence of 2006 to 2008 was imminent.
"It is not worth taking the country to a political, sectarian and security tension," Mr Nasrallah told his followers last Friday.
"Let us stay calm in order to reach a solution ? Reaching a deal over a cabinet, even if it takes some time, is better than dragging the country into chaos," he told supporters.
This approach, in marked contrast to past speeches and positions in which he would warn his political opponents that a failure to agree could internally threaten the safety and security of the nation, appears to be an effort to remake the region's perception of the militant group, which is more famous for its military prowess than its ability to compromise with its enemies.
"He has not been using threats or intimidation anymore," said Timur Goksel, a former UN official with decades of experience dealing with Hizbollah.
"This appears to be an attempt to soften the image of Hizbollah domestically and regionally. But it is also the only real course available to them at this point."
Mr Goksel said that Hizbollah can afford to be patient, in large part because they feel that a government favourable to their positions will eventually be formed, and as long as they are not faced with a threat to their security, they have no reason to be impatient.
"It might take a little time, but they will get what they want," he said of the group. "But things are calming down. Their strength is beyond question."
Elias Muhanna, a political affairs expert, thinks it became clear during the wrangling over Mr Hariri's refusal to appoint Mr Aoun's son-in-law as minister of telecommunications that Hizbollah cared little about the fight, but were happy to support their critical ally as long as Mr Aoun kept the conflict limited to patronage positions.
"My feeling is that Hizbollah would like a government to be formed yesterday," Mr Muhanna said in an e-mail. "It's better for them if Lebanon's dysfunctions are off the front page. That said, I don't think that they're going to turn the screw on Aoun, for the same reason that they never try to pressure Berri. They're happy to let their allies play politics as long as their red lines are very clear. Pressuring Aoun is just not worth [sacrificing] their own political capital."
With Lebanon's long history of sectarian warfare between just about every confessional group at one time or another, Mr Nasrallah appears concerned about turning the dispute into a Sunni-Shiite battle, a problem that Mr Aoun, as a Christian, does not face or care much about.
"Nasrallah is playing the good cop to Aoun's bad cop, because he knows that as a Sunni-Shiite contest, this has sectarian potential," said Paul Salem of the Carnegie Institute.
"I don't think they [Hizbollah] care about Aoun's son-in law but they certainly care about the telecommunications ministry. They are ratcheting down sectarian tensions, [and] they do not want their people tense or riled up. So his [Nasrallah's] position seems to be to keep sectarianism calm and cool, while actually letting a sectarian thing play out."
However, Mr Goksel disagrees, describing the contest as strictly political in light of each side's expectations, which could even be described as cynicism.
"This is a political fight, not a sectarian one," he said. "This being Lebanon, people will say 'sectarian' for just about anything. This country is not going to change. Neither side has any dreamy illusions of changing the confessional system, the voting laws or the economic mafia controls. They are just working their way around finding a way for both sides to peacefully coexist. They can do it, it's just going to take a little while longer."
mprothero@thenational.ae
The permutations for UAE going to the 2018 World Cup finals
To qualify automatically
UAE must beat Iraq.
Australia must lose in Japan and at home to Thailand, with their losing margins and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
To finish third and go into a play-off with the other third-placed AFC side for a chance to reach the inter-confederation play-off match
UAE must beat Iraq.
Saudi Arabia must lose to Japan, with their losing margin and the UAE's winning margin over Iraq being enough to overturn a goal difference gap of eight.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Super Rugby play-offs
Quarter-finals
- Hurricanes 35, ACT 16
- Crusaders 17, Highlanders 0
- Lions 23, Sharks 21
- Chiefs 17, Stormers 11
Semi-finals
Saturday, July 29
- Crusaders v Chiefs, 12.35pm (UAE)
- Lions v Hurricanes, 4.30pm
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Opening Premier League fixtures, August 14
- Brentford v Arsenal
- Burnley v Brighton
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- Everton v Southampton
- Leicester City v Wolves
- Manchester United v Leeds United
- Newcastle United v West Ham United
- Norwich City v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Manchester City
- Watford v Aston Villa
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Anna and the Apocalypse
Director: John McPhail
Starring: Ella Hunt, Malcolm Cumming, Mark Benton
Three stars
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
RESULTS
Mumbai Indians 181-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata Knight Riders 168-6 (20ovs)
Mumbai won by 13 runs
Rajasthan Royals 152-9 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 155-4 (18.4 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab won by 6 wickets
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier
ICC Academy, November 22-28
UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal
ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan
UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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