The Shiite group has vastly increased its size and training of members since the conflict with Israel in 2006. It is confident that its next military conflict will be of much shorter duration. Worryingly, both sides now seem to be in favour of another conflict this summer.
BEIRUT // With large-scale military exercises being conducted by both Hizbollah and the Israeli Defence Forces on the 10th anniversary of Israel's hasty withdrawal from South Lebanon, the border between the two sides is the tensest it has been since the end of the 2006 summer war despite a huge United Nations peacekeeping presence.
But even as both sides issue half-hearted claims that neither is interested in a new round of hostilities, it remains clear from the rhetoric that not only do they consider another war inevitable, but they see it as a favourable outcome.
Wars generally do not produce an unequivocal victor, and one has to wonder if anyone would benefit from another round of bloodletting. But after a year of increasingly hostile rhetoric from the Israelis, who have repeatedly accused the Lebanese government of politically acquiescing to Hizbollah, the recent accusation that Syria has armed the group with long-range Scud missiles has added even more kindling to the fire.
Despite denials from top Hizbollah leadership that a war is neither desirable nor imminent, its rank and file sound convinced that not only will there soon be a war, but they will handily win it, based on the Israeli Defense Forces' poor performance in the summer of 2006. One Hizbollah military commander went as far as to declare the next war as "the last one we will have to fight with the enemy".
"The war is coming soon and we will win it easily," the commander said. "There's a saying in Arabic about the two men who clamp the other's fingers in their teeth until one can't take the pain and lets go. The next war will bring the people of Israel so much pain that not only will they let go, but they'll never bother us again."
Hizbollah fighters are normally a confident bunch, in the manner of well-disciplined young men with extensive military training, but the casual attitude towards any impending hostilities has recently begun to border on arrogance.
"They will be hit with so many rockets in such a short period of time that it will be like the 'shock and awe' of the Americans," the commander said. "It will take days this time to break their spirit when they realise their planes cannot stop us from shelling their settlements. We can hit anywhere in Israel now and even if their tanks flatten every single village in the south with bulldozers, they will start to cry when they realise that rockets will continue to fly up out of the piles of bricks. They can't stop us and they won't be able to take it."
It is an incontrovertible fact that Hizbollah has rearmed itself and even exceeded its weapons stockpiles since the end of 2006. And there is an increasingly dominant conventional wisdom that the group has expanded its arsenal to include even more effective weapons, including longer-range missiles and rockets that can probably hit Tel Aviv.
The Israeli military claims to have badly hurt Hizbollah's manpower in 2006, but there's little evidence to support this - and most neutral observers in Beirut, including some with access to Hizbollah's military wing, contend that the group's casualties were less than a third of the more than 700 fighters the Israelis say were killed.
Besides the safe assumption of new weaponry, there appears to be a factor overlooked in the statements of the Israeli leadership: the number of Hizbollah fighters in the field.
In 2006, according to commanders within the group who have repeatedly provided accurate information in the past, the war was fought by fewer than 1,000 fighters in southern Lebanon out of maybe 5,000 trained members of the military wing countrywide.
"The Israelis had air cover that made it hard for us to reinforce, they won't have the same advantage next time," another fighter recently said.
"We could have men and equipment to help the fighters in the villages and bunkers [in the south] but the boys never really needed the help, so it was decided to hold everyone in reserve rather than risk moving them. We never even deployed our reservists."
But today, in a phenomenon so far unmentioned by the Israeli leadership, there is a massive increase in size and training of the group since the 2006 war, which appears to have sparked the interest in thousands of young men in joining the group.
"They must have doubled their size, maybe tripled it," according to a resident of the southern suburbs with close ties to the group. "It used to be that everyone knew who the Hizbollah guys were, now everyone is a Hizbollah guy.
"And training? Dozens of guys leave every neighbuorhood and village for months at a time for the mountains or Iran to train. It's all they do, train and prepare for the next war."
The man said this became clear when Hizbollah announced it would mobilise on Friday last week, ahead of the Israeli military exercises being held this week.
"Within an hour, every boy in South Lebanon just evaporated," he said. "Phones were off and the streets were empty. There's twice as many of them as in 2006, easily."
mprothero@thenational.ae
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
RECORD%20BREAKER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20debutant%20for%20Barcelona%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2015%20years%20and%20290%20days%20v%20Real%20Betis%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20La%20Liga%20starter%20in%20the%2021st%20century%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%20years%20and%2038%20days%20v%20Cadiz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20player%20to%20register%20an%20assist%20in%20La%20Liga%20in%20the%2021st%20century%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%20years%20and%2045%20days%20v%20Villarreal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20debutant%20for%20Spain%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2016%20years%20and%2057%20days%20v%20Georgia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20goalscorer%20for%20Spain%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2016%20years%20and%2057%20days%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20player%20to%20score%20in%20a%20Euro%20qualifier%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2016%20years%20and%2057%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20stats%20and%20facts
%3Cp%3E1.9%20million%20women%20are%20at%20risk%20of%20developing%20cervical%20cancer%20in%20the%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E80%25%20of%20people%2C%20females%20and%20males%2C%20will%20get%20human%20papillomavirus%20(HPV)%20once%20in%20their%20lifetime%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EOut%20of%20more%20than%20100%20types%20of%20HPV%2C%2014%20strains%20are%20cancer-causing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E99.9%25%20of%20cervical%20cancers%20are%20caused%20by%20the%20virus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EA%20five-year%20survival%20rate%20of%20close%20to%2096%25%20can%20be%20achieved%20with%20regular%20screenings%20for%20cervical%20cancer%20detection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EWomen%20aged%2025%20to%2029%20should%20get%20a%20Pap%20smear%20every%20three%20years%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EWomen%20aged%2030%20to%2065%20should%20do%20a%20Pap%20smear%20and%20HPV%20test%20every%20five%20years%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EChildren%20aged%2013%20and%20above%20should%20get%20the%20HPV%20vaccine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
The specs
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Power: 579hp
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Price: From Dh825,900
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SPECS
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Frida%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarla%20Gutierrez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Frida%20Kahlo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Fixture
Friday, March 29, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, The Sevens, Dubai
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
THE%20FLASH
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In the Restaurant: Society in Four Courses
Christoph Ribbat
Translated by Jamie Searle Romanelli
Pushkin Press
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
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What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
