NEW YORK // When Barack Obama was preparing for his first presidential inauguration in December 2008, Israel went to war with Hamas, battering the Gaza Strip with a bloody ground invasion and killing more than 1,400 Palestinians.
Four years later, Mr Obama is once more confronted with spiralling Middle East violence within weeks of winning an election, as bombs again lay waste to swathes of Gaza and Hamas rockets land in Israel.
But the deja vu only goes so far. The region and the US president's foreign policy priorities are starkly different now, and there is little chance that he will push for a grand bargain on Middle East peace as he did in 2009, analysts say.
In the short term, the US will work closely with Egypt and Israel in an attempt to prevent the violence from becoming a wider conflict, said Geoffrey Kemp, the director of regional security programmes at the Centre for the National Interest, a think tank based in Washington, DC.
A broader peace process, however, is "off the table until things calm down and until the Iranian and Syrian issues are resolved", Mr Kemp said.
While some voices will call on the president to use the current flare-up to push for a renewed peace process, the fact that Hamas rockets have fallen close to Israel's two largest cities will make any concessions by an already reticent leadership a political impossibility.
"The Israeli public will not be in the mood for negotiations that would lead to [Israel] withdrawing from territory," said Steven A Cook, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "So I think that anybody looking at this situation is saying that [the peace process] isn't going to be a priority for the president."
The US administration's Middle East priorities will centre on negotiating a deal with Iran over its nuclear programme, helping the Arab Spring states successfully transition to democracy and working to bring an end to the Syrian civil war, the analysts said.
Whatever the order of these priorities, Mr Obama is unlikely to change his so-called "light footprint" approach of diplomacy and tightly controlled military engagements, usually by small commando units or remote-controlled drones.
"I don't see any dramatic change" in focus or tactics," said Mr Cook.
The sex scandal involving David Petraeus, the former director of the CIA, has complicated Mr Obama's efforts to choose a new foreign policy team to replace his outgoing secretaries of state and defence, and now the CIA, but new faces are expected to have little effect on the tenor or direction of Middle East policy.
"The overall strategic [foreign policy] thrust over the past four years has been set by the White House," said Mr Cook. "And I don't think personnel is going to dramatically change that."
Where Mr Obama may be more assertive is with his biggest Middle East challenge - stopping Iran's military nuclear ambitions.
His strategy of crippling sanctions will probably remain but, while the president is still flush with political capital, the pressure is likely to be increased on Iran, said Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council.
"He has an opportunity now to offer more to get a compromise, and I think he will try," said Mr Parsi. "But it's not clear if it will be enough."
Tehran wants the US to lift its devastating economic sanctions in exchange for an end to uranium enrichment, but Iranian leaders realise that a Republican-controlled House of Congress will make any gradual compromises extremely difficult.
"If Obama isn't capable of lifting sanctions, then what incentive do the Iranians have to change their [nuclear] policy?" asked Mr Parsi.
Congressional blocks will also make it more difficult to engage Tehran on the question of regime change in Syria, Iran's close ally.
"There's a realisation that the Iranians want to talk about Syria, but there won't be this conversation unless there is a bilateral one between the US and Iran, and so far, the Iranians have not agreed to it," said Mr Parsi.
A pre-emptive military assault on Iran is not expected to be seriously considered by the next administration as it shifts its foreign policy focus to east Asia, where it believes the country's long-term strategic and economic interests lie.
This change has been highlighted Mr Obama's leading diplomats making trips to the region days after his re-election and his own visit this week to south-east Asia.
The shift is part of a broader "post-post-Cold War" realisation by Mr Obama that, after a decade of war, military solutions to political challenges are ultimately unpopular and counterproductive, said Sarah Chayes, an assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the first Obama administration.
"We're in an increasingly multipolar world now and that means that US leaders need to think more about how to have influence than how to have control, and influence may best be attained through a wide variety of non-military instruments," she added.
"In the initial post-Cold War era, America realised it could use its military instruments, which it couldn't before because the potential consequences could be apocalyptic," said Ms Chayes, who is now a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"In the 20 years since then, there was an overuse of them and I think we might be coming to the end of that era."
But the Middle East has a way of pulling the US back in. With a weak economy in Europe and a still-struggling US, any major conflict could spook the oil markets to disastrous economic effect, said Mr Kemp.
"You can decide you're going to pivot to Asia, but the world gets a vote," added Ms Chayes. "It's what you might call strategic surprise - and it's very powerful."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
