The best hope for civilians ending a deadly government onslaught in Idlib is that Turkey and Russia eventually act on mutual interests to restore the ceasefire they brokered in Syria's last rebel-held province; the alternative is a bloody battle to the finish, according to a regional expert and a former rebel commander.
More than 300 civilians are estimated to have been killed and nearly 270,000 displaced since President Bashar Al Assad's forces launched their offensive in late April, with air support from his ally Russia. Civilian targets such as markets, schools and hospitals have been hit repeatedly.
"Despite the ferocity and unrelenting nature of the ongoing campaign on Idlib, I do not think it will end in the reconquest of Idlib by the Assad regimes and its allies. A deal still needs to be worked out between Turkey and Russia – and to a lesser extent, Iran and the Assad regime," said Elizabeth Tsurkov, a research fellow at the Forum for Regional Thinking specialising in Syria.
"Without such a deal, a regime reconquest of Idlib will result in mass displacement of residents of Idlib and Hama to areas under direct Turkish control [northern Aleppo province] and possibly into Turkey itself," Ms Tsurkov told The National. "Turkey wants to avoid this outcome at any cost – the main reason it directly intervened in Idlib is to avoid this scenario."
She expects the ceasefire that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed upon in September will be reinstated at some point, but for now Moscow finds itself "trying to navigate different pressures and interests at the same time".
"The regime is interested in retaking Idlib and the Russians want to push the rebels further away from Latakia to protect the Hmeimim base. At the same time, Russia wants to maintain a good relationship with Turkey," Ms Tsurkov said.
"I think the fact that the offensive has been continuing now for over a month is a result of breakdown in talks between Russia and Turkey."
Ahmad Rahal, a former colonel in the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), said intensity of the attack so far suggested that the bombing would intensify, with mounting civilian casualties, to swiftly gain territory in Idlib and strengthen Russia's bargaining position.
Russia now "is negotiating with Turkey via bombs and tanks"" he said.
"Astana and Sochi [peace processes] have died on the ground in spite of the denials from Turkey and Russia; however, Russia is the one who has chosen the military solution to expand their area of control," Mr Rahal told The National.
"But they are mistaken to think that their attacks will progress as it did in Aleppo or Ghouta, because the global actors will not stand silent."
He predicted that western countries including the United States would resume support for the rebels to prevent Russia and militias backed by Iran, Mr Al Assad's other main ally, from taking Idlib.
"Russia seems to ignore the fact that Idlib is the rebel’s last stronghold; their families have nowhere else to escape. So it will be a deadly battle which Russia will lose," he said.
Mr Tsurkov said Turkey also had military options to counter the government offensive and prevent Idlib being overrun, which would trigger the influx of refugees that it is trying to avoid. The possibility that these might include extremist fighters from Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the dominant force in Idlib with links to Al Qaeda, would make such an outcome even more unacceptable.
"I think Turkey has a lot of cards it has not played yet that would allow it to slow down regime progress, but Turkey has not used most of these cards thus far, in part due to its desire not to antagonise Russia,' she said.
"Turkey could push additional fighters from Euphrates Shield factions to join the fight in Hama; it could supply even more weaponry to the opposition, particularly more anti-tank and possibly even anti-aircraft weapons. Finally, Turkey could intervene in the conflict directly.
"The prospect of millions of refugees streaming into Turkey, among them tens of thousands of jihadists, is unacceptable to Turkey. Therefore I expect Turkey to increase its involvement and support to the rebels in Idlib if it believes that the opposition is at risk of losing Idlib."
WITHIN%20SAND
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20flat-six%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E525hp%20(GT3)%2C%20500hp%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E465Nm%20(GT3)%2C%20450Nm%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh944%2C000%20(GT3)%2C%20Dh581%2C700%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scoreline:
Al Wahda 2
Al Menhali 27', Tagliabue 79'
Al Nassr 3
Hamdallah 41', Giuliano 45 1', 62'
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More coverage from the Future Forum
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Pickford, Pope.
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Dier, Gomez, Keane, Maguire, Maitland-Niles, Mings, Saka, Trippier, Walker.
Midfielders Henderson, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse, Winks.
Forwards Abraham, Barnes, Calvert-Lewin, Grealish, Ings, Kane, Rashford, Sancho, Sterling.
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
7.05pm Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
7.40pm Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections:
6.30pm Underwriter
7.05pm Rayig
7.40pm Torno Subito
8.15pm Talento Puma
8.50pm Etisalat
9.25pm Gundogdu
