Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region has held its long-awaited referendum on independence despite mounting international opposition, with results expected to be heavily tipped in favour of separation.
But although the referendum will bolster calls for Kurdish independence from Iraq, the vote has no legal mandate.
Iraqi Kurdish president Masoud Barzani, who led the independence drive, has reassured the international community that the referendum is non-binding and is meant to provide his administration with a “legitimate mandate” to negotiate secession of Kurdish-controlled regions of Iraq from Baghdad.
Baghdad’s central government has repeatedly rejected the poll, describing it as “illegal” and “unconstitutional”, while Tehran and Ankara both fear the vote will ignite separatist aspirations among their own sizeable Kurdish minorities.
There is a widespread fear among the international community, meanwhile, that a "Yes" vote will unleash an unstoppable momentum in the push for independence that will eventually lead to revolt and bloodshed.
“Legally there is no process for separation in Iraq, so independence for Kurdistan has to come from a ruling outside of the Iraqi constitution,” Dr Renad Mansour, senior fellow at the British think tank Chatham House, said.
Article one of the Iraqi constitution stipulates that “the Republic of Iraq is a single, independent federal state with full sovereignty”.
As a result, for Iraqi Kurdistan to gain independence the “international community must recognise it [as a state]” Mr Mansour said.
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Read more on the referendum:
Uncertainty hovers over what happens next to the Kurds of Iraq
Excitement at polls contrasts with silence on streets
Iraq parliament demands troops be sent to Kirkuk amid Kurdish vote
Analysis: Independence vote a smokescreen for Barzani's domestic political woes
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Mohammed Hineidi, a Dubai-based expert on the Levant, said a "Yes" vote would give Mr Barzani a mandate to begin secession talks with the central Iraqi government, despite Baghdad saying it would not enter into independence negotiations with Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region.
But, he added: “For Iraq now, not much will change on the ground, unless violence erupts in the oil rich contested city of Kirkuk, which the Iraqi government has threatened with military intervention.”
The ethnically diverse city of Kirkuk is one of a number of areas outside of the autonomous Kurdish region that are controlled by Kurdish forces but claimed by both Erbil and Baghad.
Mr Barzani stressed on Sunday that the referendum result would not draw borders, and that a "Yes" vote would result in talks with Baghdad lasting at least a year or two. However, he stressed that the "failed partnership" with the "sectarian state" of Iraq was over.
"Baghdad will likely make its move on the disputed areas prior to negotiations in order to limit Kurdistan just to Erbil, Dahok, Sulemanyia (the provinces that make up the autonomous Kurdish region) and this will reduce Kurdistan’s leverage even more," Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the DC-based American Enterprise Institute think tank, said.
"When it comes to negotiation, while Baghdad might eventually offer some sort of confederation, in the short term I wouldn’t expect any change. Baghdad will be content to let Kurdistan experience the economic hardship that it can expect if it tries to go it alone as a landlocked, politically divided country," Mr Rubin said.
As a landlocked region, an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would need to ensure it had friendly allies in neighbouring states, Mr Mansour added.
“The Kurds need friends to be able to import and export oil and gas; for them Turkey is the most important actor.”
Ankara has strongly declared its opposition to the referendum, carrying out military exercises near its border with the Iraqi Kurdish region.
But, Mr Mansour said, “behind closed doors the vote will not impact relations between the two as long as the Kurds do not declare independence".
So why has Mr Barzani pushed for a non-binding referendum?
Mr Mansour believes it is important to recognise the referendum within the prism of a post- ISIL Iraqi political settlement.
"With the military battle against ISIL declining, many of the political parties are coming to the table to negotiate what comes next for Iraq, to negotiate a rebuilding of the Iraqi state," Mr Mansour said.
"The Kurds believe that in order for them to have strong leverage and strong seat at the table in this process they need to have some sort of threat of independence or some sort of power."
In addition, Mr Barzani was "keen to hold the referendum now due to the economic woes in the Kurdistan Regional Government, and to distract from the criticisms being leveled against him and his administration", Mr Hineidi said.
The Kites
Romain Gary
Penguin Modern Classics
Need to know
Unlike other mobile wallets and payment apps, a unique feature of eWallet is that there is no need to have a bank account, credit or debit card to do digital payments.
Customers only need a valid Emirates ID and a working UAE mobile number to register for eWallet account.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Result
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,950m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m; Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Adam McLean, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,950m; Winner: Conclusion, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh100,000 1,400m; Winner: Pilgrim’s Treasure, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m; Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,000m; Winner: Midlander, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Marfa%20Deira%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wadheha%2C%20Bernardo%20Pinheiro%20(jockey)%2C%20Majed%20Al%20Jahouri%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.35pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20Creek%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBarq%20Al%20Emarat%2C%20Bernardo%20Pinheiro%2C%20Ismail%20Mohammed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.10pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMina%20Hamriya%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh95%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tahdeed%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Michael%20Costa%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.45pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mina%20Rashid%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C900m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeyaasi%2C%20Xavier%20Ziani%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.20pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAl%20Garhoud%20Sprint%20DP%20World%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh132%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mouheeb%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Michael%20Costa%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.55pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mirdiff%20Stakes%20Jebel%20Ali%20Port%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20Dh120%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seyouff%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Michael%20Costa%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jebel%20Ali%20Free%20Zone%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh95%2C000%20(D)%202%2C000m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAjuste%20Fiscal%2C%20Jose%20da%20Silva%2C%20Julio%20Olascoaga%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Manchester City 4
Otamendi (52) Sterling (59) Stones (67) Brahim Diaz (81)
Real Madrid 1
Oscar (90)
Brief scores:
Day 1
Toss: India, chose to bat
India (1st innings): 215-2 (89 ov)
Agarwal 76, Pujara 68 not out; Cummins 2-40
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Tell the Machine Goodnight' by Katie Williams
Penguin Randomhouse
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
MATCH INFO
Day 1 at Mount Maunganui
England 241-4
Denly 74, Stokes 67 not out, De Grandhomme 2-28
New Zealand
Yet to bat
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
THE%C2%A0SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%20four-cylinder%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starting%20from%20Dh89%2C900%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Schedule:
Friday, January 12: Six fourball matches
Saturday, January 13: Six foursome (alternate shot) matches
Sunday, January 14: 12 singles
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Habib El Qalb
Assi Al Hallani
(Rotana)
ASHES SCHEDULE
First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)
UAE and Russia in numbers
UAE-Russia ties stretch back 48 years
Trade between the UAE and Russia reached Dh12.5 bn in 2018
More than 3,000 Russian companies are registered in the UAE
Around 40,000 Russians live in the UAE
The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase to 12 percent to reach 1.6 million in 2023
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Pieces of Her
Stars: Toni Collette, Bella Heathcote, David Wenham, Omari Hardwick
Director: Minkie Spiro
Rating:2/5
