LONDON // Britain and France have declared that there is significant evidence chemical weapons have been used in Syria by the Syrian military.
But it was unlikely that the countries, the most outspoken in their desire to arm the Syrian opposition, would take any significant steps in that direction, analysts said, even if they were no longer constrained by an EU arms embargo.
Rather, they may have weakened their hand by pushing for the EU to drop the embargo and, in the process, undermined diplomatic efforts to get the parties around the table to start talks between the regime and the rebels trying to overthrow it.
Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said on Tuesday that tests carried out by a French laboratory had confirmed that sarin gas, a nerve agent, had been used several times during Syria's two-year conflict, and at least once by "the regime and its accomplices".
The claim was echoed in London, where further tests were carried out.
"It doesn't tell us, that evidence, about the scale or the frequency of that use," William Hague, the British foreign minister, said yesterday.
"But to us it is very strong evidence that it has been used and that it's been used on more than one occasion."
Mr Hague said he was "not jumping to any further conclusion about this", added that "the next step on this is the UN investigation".
A UN Commission of Inquiry report on Tuesday said the conflict - which the United Nations estimates has claimed more than 70,000 lives - had reached "new levels of brutality", and cited "reasonable grounds" for suspecting that chemical weapons had been used.
Both Britain and France last month pushed for the EU drop its arms embargo on Syria, clearing the way for countries to supply weapons to the divided opposition.
Both nations made it clear they would not immediately arm rebels. Instead, said Christopher Phillips, a Syria specialist and professor at Queen Mary University of London, they seemed to be banking on merely lifting the embargo having an effect on the calculations of the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, and his backers in Moscow and Tehran.
It did, but not in the way Paris and London might have hoped. Instead of being deterred, Moscow doubled down on its support for Damascus, calling Britain and France's bluff by announcing the sale of sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles.
Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group closely aligned to Iran, confirmed its fighters were openly fighting on the side of the Syrian military. Yesterday, they retook the strategic border town of Qusayr.
"The problem Britain, France and, indeed, the US, have is that they are not willing to commit as much to this conflict as the other players are," said Mr Phillips. "And until they are willing to put in their own troops or set up a no-fly zone, that problem will remain."
Accusations of chemical-weapon use would not change that calculation while the US president, Barack Obama, remains reluctant to get involved, showing a more sophisticated understanding of "vicious dynamics" in a conflict with "no easy answers", said Julien Barnes-Darcey of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
"Obama's reluctance and hesitation reflects an understandable uncertainty about how the US could make a decisive difference in the positive," he said.
The EU's dilemma now is that without US support for military action, the effect of any British and French efforts to arm the opposition would be minimal. The lifting of the arms embargo, Mr Barnes-Darcey said, was "an empty bluff".
"Both Assad and his international backers know that Europe is never going to supply the kind of weaponry that would actually make much of a difference on the ground in terms of shifting the balance of power."
In a recent report for the ECFR co-written by Mr Barnes-Darcey, the authors cautioned against "intervention-lite" or "diplomacy-lite".
The choice, they said, was between a full-scale intervention and a commitment to real diplomacy. The latter path, which they recommended, necessitates "an honest acknowledgement of the balance of power", Mr Barnes-Darcey said.
"That means Assad isn't going anywhere any time soon. And until the opposition and the West accept that, there isn't any opportunity or any chance of moving ahead with real deal-making diplomacy."
But by pushing for an end to the arms embargo, Britain and France have not only forced Russia to show its displeasure, they may also have emboldened the opposition to reject negotiations, said Mr Phillips.
Syria's opposition has rejected any conference that does not explicitly seek the removal of Mr Al Assad. The mooted Geneva conference - suggested by Washington and Moscow - has been postponed to July. It may take longer to materialise now.
"The rebels have never wanted to negotiate," said Mr Phillips. "They don't believe Assad will stay true to his word. And now that the legal obstacle [to arms deliveries] has been removed, they might well dig in their heels and refuse to go to the peace conference unless they get the weapons they want."
okarmi@thenational.ae
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khaldoon%20Bushnaq%20and%20Tariq%20Seksek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20100%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20to%20date%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2415%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MEYDAN%20RACECARD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EArabian%20Adventures%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.35pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Sky%20Cargo%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%2087%2C500%20(D)%202%2C000m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.10pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Holiday%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.45pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Skywards%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.20pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emirates%20Airline%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh105%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.55pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Airline%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh105%2C000%20(D)%201%2C900m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates.com%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB_%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
No%20Windmills%20in%20Basra
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Diaa%20Jubaili%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20180%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Deep%20Vellum%20Publishing%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
INDIA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3ERohit%20Sharma%20(capt)%2C%20Shubman%20Gill%2C%20Cheteshwar%20Pujara%2C%20Virat%20Kohli%2C%20Ajinkya%20Rahane%2C%20KL%20Rahul%2C%20KS%20Bharat%20(wk)%2C%20Ravichandran%20Ashwin%2C%20Ravindra%20Jadeja%2C%20Axar%20Patel%2C%20Shardul%20Thakur%2C%20Mohammed%20Shami%2C%20Mohammed%20Siraj%2C%20Umesh%20Yadav%2C%20Jaydev%20Unadkat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score):
Manchester City (0) v Tottenham Hotspur (1), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
The%20end%20of%20Summer
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Salha%20Al%20Busaidy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20316%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20The%20Dreamwork%20Collective%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia