DAMASCUS // Emboldened opposition activists and the Assad regime both sought to capitalise on a rare public meeting of dissidents in the Syrian capital, as the struggle to determine the country's future continues.
Monday's conference in a Damascus hotel, the first large gathering of opposition figures inside Syriafor years, is part of a battle over public opinion between pro-democracy activists and a government that has been trying to stamp out a popular uprising.
While the balance of power still favours an entrenched, autocratic regime, dissidents are working to tilt the scales in their favour.
At stake are the perceptions of the international community, crucially, Russia and Turkey, and, more importantly, Syria's silent majority. It continues to harbour reservations about revolutionary change but has also had confidence in a decades-old regime profoundly shaken.
Opposition activists, regime loyalists and analysts agree the eight-hour long conference, which could not have gone ahead without at least tacit official approval, offered a series of potential costs and benefits for both sides.
"The regime would never have let the meeting take place unless it thought it would get something out of it," said George Sabra, a long-time political dissident who boycotted the conference.
"They did get some significant benefits from it, but so did the opposition. It is hard to know where the balance lays, who won the most?"
The authorities wanted to use the meeting as a way of deflecting growing international and domestic criticism over their violent crackdown on protesters, analysts and dissidents said, while buying more time to carry out military operations against demonstration hot-spots.
Although President Bashar Al Assad has held out the prospect of political reforms, he has insisted a security crackdown must continue because it is targeting Islamist militants rather than civilised protesters with legitimate demands.
Widespread scepticism has greeted that narrative both at home and abroad, with critics saying the regime has proven itself incapable of reform. However, many inside Syria do give the official explanation credence, while Moscow has used the promise of reforms and fear of Islamic terrorism to shield Damascus from US and EU pressure inside the United Nations.
"The authorities can point to the meeting and say 'look we are reforming, we've let these opposition figures talk in public'," one dissident said. "They will also use it to try to show Syrians that they are reasonable, that they are not shooting and jailing peaceful dissidents, only terrorists."
State-controlled media, as well as international news organisations, covered the conference.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a member of the ruling Baath party said he believed the meeting would highlight divisions within the fractured opposition, and show the public there was no credible alternative to the government.
That analysis seemed to be proven at least partially correct, with some opposition activists boycotting the gathering or denouncing it as serving regime interests while protesters are still being killed in the streets. More than 1,400 have died at the hands of security services since the uprising began in March, human-rights groups say.
Delegates, and even some who had criticised the meeting in advance, acknowledged such risks but insisted it had, overall, been a success.
"It hit two targets," said Anwar Al Bunni, a leading civil-rights campaigner. "It established the principle of the opposition meeting in public, which is something major here, and it produced a concluding statement that all activists can unite around."
Meeting delegates pledged to continue their peaceful struggle for democracy, while demanding an end to the security crackdown, the release of all political prisoners and recognition of the right to hold public anti-government protests.
Another dissident said a vital nonsectarian message had also been conveyed. Key figures taking part were from Syria's minority communities - Alawite, Christian and Ismaili.
The regime has projected itself as their defender against a Sunni majority and, while many members of these minorities criticise the status quo, they appear to be most alarmed by the prospect of it changing.
"To see Alawites and Christians publicly making the case for democracy and saying there is nothing to fear from it sends a strong message that this revolution is not about sectarianism," the dissident said.
Authorities have also sought to portray demonstrators as proxies for foreign powers, a charge that has drawn oxygen from opposition gatherings in Turkey and Europe. Having a meeting inside Syria would help counter those claims, analysts and dissidents said.
"The regime can no longer just say this is a foreign plot," said one activist. "They also cannot talk about terrorists because the opposition made clear it wants peaceful change."
Since the conference took place, it has been widely discussed among friends, families and work colleagues in Damascus, according to Syrians.
That debate is another factor dissidents believe works in their favour, propagating the seeds of the democracy they hope to establish.
"Four months ago most Syrians didn't know what 'opposition' meant, now everyone it talking about it and seeing it on the news, it has opened a space for debate that will be hard to close down again," said the independent analyst.
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Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
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5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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The biog:
Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma
Pet Peeve: Racism
Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne
What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms
Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s
Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"
Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model
Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
