The two countries worst hit by the coronanavirus outbreak in the region are set to experience the most far-reaching consequences of the pandemic.
Already the emergency response has seen hardliners in Iran solidifying their position in the country while a likely fall in tourism revenue means a grim economic year for Turkey, Middle East experts have warned.
The pandemic has led to a virtual lockdown in the region but Iran and Turkey have been the most affected, with tens of thousands of cases and collectively thousands of deaths. Tehran in particular has come under fierce criticism for its response during the initial days of the outbreak and claims it is underreporting cases.
The crisis has been compounded by the pummeling of oil prices.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were tasked last month with enforcing strict quarantine measures as the regime ramped up its measures.
“When you look at Iran, the fact that the revolutionary guard has supplanted the ministry of health is taken, at least among Iran watchers in this [US government] administration, as basically the revolutionary guard seizing or solidifying its control on Iran in addition to the outsized role it plays in the Iranian government and economy is kind of being seen as a sort of slow, creeping coup,” said Professor David Des Roches of the Near East South Asia Centre for Security Studies.
He was speaking at a webinar organised by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP).
Already in a precarious financial situation because of renewed US sanctions, Iran’s economic situation has suffered because of the pandemic.
Marc Finaud, head of arms proliferation at the GCSP, said the fall in the oil price, aggravated by the sanctions, could force the Iranian government to resort to printing more money. In turn, this would lead to inflation.
“The economic impact of course is still very early to evaluate clearly but it will be much worse than in the other Middle East countries where now it is assessed it will reach around 11 per cent while in Iran, probably a decrease in (Gross Domestic Product) of 25 per cent,” he said.
Dr Karen Young at the American Enterprise Institute told the webinar that the economic pinch from falling tourism revenues would be felt across the region in places like Lebanon, especially with Summer approaching.
Tourism markets will be “completely destroyed,” she warned, with countries reliant ton tourism seeing “very, very sharp decreases”.
Warns that tourism will drop as you look across the middle east. “it means tourism markets are completely destroyed and many of the economies” reliant on tourism are “very, very sharp decreases.”
“If you think about a case like Turkey, so traditionally when oil prices are low, emerging market countries or oil importers across the Middle East would get some boost from cheap oil prices. But we’re not seeing that because of the overall lack of transportation demand and overall demand destruction for all kinds of products,” she said.
“Tourism revenues for a country like Turkey are about £26 billion dollars a year, largely earned in the summer months, which is about 3.5 per cent of GDP. So this will be a very, very hard year for Turkey.”
Separately the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a London think tank, has said the crisis will mean a rethink of Europe's relationship with Iran in a briefing paper issued ahead of its own webinar.
"Thus far, Europe, led by London, Paris and Berlin, has held on to the nuclear deal with Iran, even as it has been hollowed out by Washington’s withdrawal from the agreement and Iran’s gradual reneging on its commitments to it," it said. "It seems clear that a new agreement would have to go beyond the nuclear deal and include Iran’s regional activities. Its support for the Houthis in Yemen, which in turn is driving the Saudi-led intervention in the war, is an important part of this."
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Personalities on the Plate: The Lives and Minds of Animals We Eat
Barbara J King, University of Chicago Press
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
How it works
A $10 hand-powered LED light and battery bank
Device is operated by hand cranking it at any time during the day or night
The charge is stored inside a battery
The ratio is that for every minute you crank, it provides 10 minutes light on the brightest mode
A full hand wound charge is of 16.5minutes
This gives 1.1 hours of light on high mode or 2.5 hours of light on low mode
When more light is needed, it can be recharged by winding again
The larger version costs between $18-20 and generates more than 15 hours of light with a 45-minute charge
No limit on how many times you can charge
Wonka
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
