Concern as Petraeus leaves Iraq

BAGHDAD // Gen David Petraeus, the military leader widely credited with stemming Iraq's tide of blood after years of spiralling violence, stood down as commander of US forces in Iraq yesterday, leaving behind concerns the situation is about to take a turn for the worse. He handed over command to his former deputy, Gen Raymond Odierno, the man who was in charge of the 4th Infantry Division during the invasion of Iraq. It was his troops that captured Saddam Hussein in the winter of 2003. However, the 4th ID and Gen Odierno have been criticised for their aggressive approach, using tanks and making mass arrests during what was supposed to be the post-war phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Such tactics helped to alienate an increasingly disgruntled Iraqi population and were deliberately shunned by Gen Petraeus, who took a more subtle approach in an effort to win hearts and minds. Gen Petraeus oversaw the surge, but it was Gen Odierno who first proposed it in Dec 2006 to a resistant Pentagon, setting the stage for what would become a pivotal turn in the unpopular war. "General Petraeus had a good understanding of Iraq and that let him get the upper hand," said Majid al Zamili, an MP on the Iraqi Alliance List. "He knew how to cope with al Qa'eda and the Mahdi Army in a clever way, and he used the hostility between Iraqi Sunnis and al Qa'eda well, pulling them apart with the sahwa councils." The sahwa, or awakening, councils brought 99,000 Iraqis - many former insurgents - on to the US payroll. Some had once fought with al Qa'eda, but were unhappy at the indiscriminate attacks by the group. It was Gen Petraeus who helped drive a wedge between these Iraqi nationalist militants and foreign-led Islamists, funding the Iraqis and letting them fight the extremists. At the same time, they were given independence to control their own districts in exchange for not attacking US forces. However, another dangerous crossroad is fast approaching, with responsibility for the sahwa councils in Baghdad to be handed over to the Iraqi government at the beginning of next month. The Shiite-led authorities have been wary of the councils and promises to bring them under the umbrella of the official security services have not yet been met. That could leave thousands of well-equipped and disgruntled fighters free to resume a war against US and Iraqi forces. It could pose a difficult management problem for Gen Odierno, who will have to make do with reduced numbers of combat troops as the surge winds down. "The new leader [Odierno] might not have sufficient expertise to handle the current situation, which is delicate," Mr Zamili said. "The relationship between al Qa'eda and the sahwa needs to be properly handled." Gen Odierno, who has headed day-to-day operations in Iraq as Gen Petraeus's deputy, has dismissed criticisms of his tactics while commanding the 4th ID, saying a tough approach was necessary and vindicated with the capture of Saddam. Gen Petraeus's next assignment will be as commander of US Central Command. From his headquarters in Tampa, Florida, he will oversee US military involvement across the Middle East, including Iraq, as well as Afghanistan, Pakistan and other Central Asian countries. He takes up that post in late October. Before leaving his post in Iraq, Gen Petraeus warned conditions remained fraught with danger. "I don't use words like victory or defeat," he said. "In fact, I am a realist, not an optimist or a pessimist. And the reality is that there has been significant progress, but there are still serious challenges." He added that al Qa'eda in Iraq "remains lethal, dangerous and barbaric, albeit in a degree of disarray, on the run and with a very damaged, completely destroyed reputation". Although showered with plaudits, there is scepticism among ordinary Iraqis as to whether reduced levels of violence - reduced does not by any stretch mean eradicated - can be credited to the US military or Gen Petraeus's astute tactical sense. Mustafa al Araji, a professor at Baghdad's Mustansiriyah University, said a change in conditions was already under way, regardless of the US military. "It was not the Americans who started to drive out al Qa'eda, it was the Iraqis themselves who had had enough," he said. "Al Qa'eda had many internal problems and was always going to collapse itself in the end. The Iraqi people in the western provinces had turned against al Qa'eda, they were sick of it. "In terms of the Shiite militia of the Mahdi Army, again that was weakened because ordinary Iraqis were tired of their actions." Mr al Araji also cautioned that difficult times lay ahead. "All of the political problems, the lack of reconstruction, and the sectarian issues are still there. They have not simply disappeared, and Iraq's neighbours are still heavily involved here. These are things the US has to deal with." Even if Gen Petraeus was not responsible for the turnaround in Iraq - and he never claimed it was all down to him - he apparently at least knew how not to aggravate what was a dire situation when he took charge in Feb 2007. Baghdad was being ethnically cleansed, the capital gripped by a spreading civil war. Millions of Iraqis fled their homes for the safety of Syria and Jordan. It is telling that a majority still refuse to return. "He was the first American commander who seemed to have a realistic idea of what was happening in the streets," said Nasser al Ubadi, a 38-year-old bank employee in Baghdad. "We had the militias everywhere, and al Qa'eda. Things are now better than they were a year ago. "I think General Petraeus deserves some of the credit for that, and he certainly deserves more than the Iraqi government, which has been very ineffective." nlatif@thenational.ae