RAMALLAH // Arab foreign ministers yesterday endorsed a proposal for indirect talks between Palestinians and Israelis, boosting a US effort to bring the sides back to a full-fledged peace process.
The Israeli government welcomed the move, with a spokesman saying he hoped "talks can now move forward".
Analysts, however, consider the measure primarily a means of political cover for Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president. The PLO, which Mr Abbas heads, has refused to enter negotiations with Israel as long as it continues its construction of settlements in occupied territory, which are illegal under international law.
That position is widely supported by Palestinians, but in recent months, US, European as well as Arab pressure has been mounting on Mr Abbas to resume some form of negotiations. The US thus proposed indirect, or proximity, talks to end the impasse.
The 14 Arab representatives, who met in Cairo yesterday, however insisted that indirect talks were a "last chance", according to Amr Mousa, the Arab League's secretary-general.
"Despite the lack of conviction in the seriousness of the Israeli side, the committee sees that it would give the indirect talks the chance as a last attempt and to facilitate the US role," said Mr Mousa, reading from a statement.
He added that Arab foreign ministers backed the talks on the condition that they last no more than four months. "This should not be an open-ended process."
The ministers also added that the talks, which would see US officials shuttling back and forth between the sides, should not turn into direct talks without a total freeze in settlement construction and clear terms of reference.
A one-year settlement construction freeze had been an early request from the Obama administration to Israel last year.
It was seized on by the PLO, which has always pinned blame for the failure of the Oslo process on the continued Israeli expansion of settlements throughout the period of those negotiations. That construction saw the number of settlers in occupied territory more than double in seven years.
Israel, however, has successfully resisted what US pressure there was to implement such a freeze. Instead, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, in November announced a partial "slowdown" in construction that did not include occupied East Jerusalem, and that would last only 10 months.
The White House said it was satisfied with the move, but Mr Abbas refused to back down.
But increasingly the US and European pressure was brought to bear on Mr Abbas and it became clear that the PLO would have to agree to restart talks without the requested settlement freeze.
"[The PLO] needed an Arab umbrella, to be able to say that Arab countries wanted us to go back to talks," said Ziyad Abu Zayyad, editor of the Palestine-Israel Journal. "There are many who will blame the PLO for accepting to go back to negotiations without getting a full settlement freeze and for that, the leadership needed Arab cover."
Hamas, for its part, last night derided the Arab League decision to endorse indirect negotiations as a fig leaf, AFP said.
It is also not clear what will be gained from indirect talks. The sides remain far apart in their positions, and both in Israel, where a far-right coalition can bring down the government at any time, as well as among the Palestinians, divided between the Fatah-led West Bank and Hamas-led Gaza Strip, domestic constraints are considerable.
Mr Abbas last week announced he was not optimistic about any negotiations at this stage, and George Giacaman, a Palestinian analyst, suggested the Americans "were playing it by ear".
"There is no clear plan and this is just an attempt to buy time."
Arab countries may not want another open-ended process, but that may be exactly what will happen. "The Netanyahu government gives me no reason to believe that there will be any change," said Mr Abu Zayyad.
okarmi@thenational.ae
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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