Anti-Assad protests 'accelerating' say Syrian activists



Anti-government protests, once isolated and largely spontaneous, are now evolving into a more coherent, organised movement, activists in Syria say.

Galvanised by a violent crackdown and street-tested in more than two months of confrontation, protesters believe they have proven their resilience and steadily grown in both numbers and influence.

Activists describe new leaders emerging from their ranks, co-ordinated political strategies developing and increasing co-operation among demonstrators in different parts of the country. All indications, they say, that protests are maturing and will become capable of effecting genuine political change in Syria.

"This is something real now," said one influential activist. "It is becoming stronger and more organised. We've entered the third month and it has expanded geographically and is developing its own identity. We're not following an Egyptian model or a Tunisian model any more. A Syrian model has emerged."

That model involves the increasing prevalence of local co-ordination committees to organise protests, he said, usually with a wide base of support in their immediate area that extends beyond those who take part in demonstrations.

"That is not a small thing. Political life has been strangled in Syria for decades, but now the people are forming real organisations, grassroots organisations, with no money, no sponsor, no foreign interference," he said.

"It has started slowly but is accelerating. This is very important."

The activist described increased support that crossed divides of religion, sect and economic status. "The most influential leaders of protests in Damascus are from minority groups. They have not declared themselves publicly yet, but they are emerging."

He also said a "strategy" would be released by Syrian-based activists "soon" that sketches out their vision for a peaceful transition from an autocratic to democratic system of governance. He gave no further details other than it would include a reference to "no revenge" as part of the shift.

As many as 10,000 suspected dissidents have been arrested since the first protests in March, according to human-rights monitors, with more than 1,000 demonstrators killed by security forces. The government refutes those figures and blames "armed gangs" for any deaths.

Some people in Syria deny the protests are actually taking place - a consequence of a powerful state security apparatus, media restrictions and decades of one-party rule that prohibits the existence of any organised opposition or public dissent.

Often seen in blurry video footage filmed with mobile phones, the protesters have a mysterious air to those not involved in demonstrations. To date, they have produced no agreed-upon political manifesto, beyond demands for "freedom", and there is no obvious opposition leadership, certainly nothing on a national scale offering a clear alternative to the current government.

Demonstrations have often had local triggers, which appear to reflect specific grievances as much as a desire for broader political change, although protests and a violent official response in Deraa, 100 kilometres south of Damascus, have acted as a focal point for activists elsewhere.

Exiled opposition figures are to hold a three-day conference in Turkey beginning today but it remains unclear to what extent any of the groups taking part can claim to represent protesters inside Syria, who will not be attending the meeting.

"I can only speak for myself. I can't even claim to represent my family on anything," said another Syrian political dissident in Damascus, referring to the various divisions that exist among those pushing for sweeping political change.

Nonetheless, activists and their supporters said demonstrators were creating on-the-ground networks, branching out of their home neighbourhoods and helping establish protests in other areas. That came partly in response to an increasing security presence in hotspots, but it has had the effect of spreading protest experience and expertise, and allowing anti-government dissent to coalesce.

"We've seen it more and more in Damascus," said one protest supporter with close connections to various districts in the capital. "If one place gets shut down by the security, the people go from there and demonstrate somewhere else."

In so doing, he said, they helped propagate the uprising and unify protesters, giving areas with a cautious but restive population the know-how and confidence to take to the streets.

The official Syrian government interpretation of events is that protests have peaked and are on the wane, and that - subject to some promised political reforms and military mopping up operations, targeting Islamic terrorists - normality is returning.

Protesters, however, point to a significant spread of anti-government demonstrations. In March, rallies were held in Deraa, Banis and a few areas on the outskirts of Damascus. By comparison, on Friday there were anti-government demonstrations in 91 places throughout the country, according to activists, despite thousands being jailed and the threat of violence by the security forces.

Government loyalists vociferously attack satellite news channels, accusing them of exaggerating the scale of public dissent in Syria. Protesters say the mainstream media reports only rallies at which video footage is both taken and quickly uploaded on to the internet, a difficult task in the face of communications blackouts and a security clampdown.

The influential activist who spoke of "emerging leaders" accepted that the protest movement was not yet strong enough to end Syria's autocracy and usher in a democratic era. He was optimistic, however, about its potential to do so, suggesting it might reach a "critical mass" in six months' time.

"We are evolving while the authorities are fossilised and paralysed," he said. "They are already running at full capacity in terms of money, ideas and manpower to try and deal with this, and they are failing, while the opposition is getting stronger all the time."

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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

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Angelo Mathews (c), Upul Tharanga, Danushka Gunathilaka, Kusal Mendis, Dinesh Chandimal, Kusal Janith Perera, Thisara Perera, Asela Gunaratne, Niroshan Dickwella, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Dushmantha Chameera, Shehan Madushanka, Akila Dananjaya, Lakshan Sandakan and Wanidu Hasaranga

Temple numbers

Expected completion: 2022

Height: 24 meters

Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people

Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people

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Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”