Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will look on from the sidelines when Iran's high-stakes nuclear negotiations with the United States and five other world powers enter a critical phase next week.
He has been unceremoniously shut out of the process by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will instead take credit for any face-saving breakthrough that would ease choking western sanctions.
Reflecting the president's frustration, media outlets close to him have been sniping at Tehran's handling of the negotiations, which opened in Istanbul last month after a long hiatus and will resume in Baghdad on Wednesday.
Websites linked to his conservative opponents have hit back hard, with one accusing him of trying to sabotage the talks because he is not involved.
This factional in-fighting in Tehran over the negotiations could potentially block an agreement, some experts fear.
"Ahmadinejad is expected to… [try to] find a way to torpedo a possible agreement that may result from the Baghdad talks," an analysis carried by the American Iranian Council (AIC), a US-based think tank, warned last week.
Equally, the authors, Hooshang Amirahmadi and Shahir Shahidsaless, cautioned that the Baghdad talks could be de-railed if Washington, misled by Iran's calls for "crippling sanctions" to be lifted, becomes over-confident and demands an end to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil.
Other Iran specialists believe Mr Ahmadinejad, whose supporters were trounced by Khamenei loyalists in recent parliamentary elections, will retreat on the nuclear front while trying to bolster his standing on domestic issues.
But he is not doing so quietly.
This week one of his closest allies and top press adviser, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, criticised Iran's approach to the nuclear talks, arguing Tehran's negotiating position is being undermined by some officials and politicians repeatedly for calling for western sanctions to be lifted.
He viewed this as a tactical mistake because it suggests Iran is vulnerable to sanctions, which Mr Ahmadinejad insists are having no impact.
"Due to the treacherous behaviour of some figures and currents at home, we have reached a point that the country's strong and independent economy is tied up to the not-so-important talks in Istanbul," Mr Javanfekr wrote in Iran, a government daily he manages, on Monday.
Mr Ahmadinejad's opponents accuse him of sour grapes.
"Many experts believe this administration's actions are designed to make the [nuclear] negotiations … fail because they are being led by the Revolution's Leader [Ayatollah Khamenei] while the administration is sidelined," Baztab, a conservative news website, declared this month.
Baztab recommended that Mr Ahmadinejad should either be given a "serious warning" not to disturb the process, or that he should be brought into it.
Whether Mr Khamenei has already delivered such a warning is unclear, but it is telling that the president has not criticised the talks directly, leaving that to aides such as Mr Javanfekr.
The nuclear file has always been guarded by Mr Khamenei, but the Iranian president thrust himself to the fore in past negotiations, which he supported. He viewed a deal that would defend Iran's atomic interests while easing tensions with the West as a glittering prize that he would deliver to the Iranian people.
Many Iran analysts believe Mr Ahmadinejad has neither the muscle nor the will to scupper the negotiations because they have the vital imprimatur of Mr Khamenei, who easily has the upper hand in their protracted power struggle.
The ayatollah recently conferred on Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, the title of "personal representative of the Supreme Leader".
"I don't believe Ahmadinejad can derail the negotiations. Khamenei and his supporters want a deal, provided there is a face-saving formula for them," said Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert at the University of Southern California.
Mr Khamenei's camp portrayed the Istanbul meeting as a victory against a US-led West that is finally coming to its senses. His supporters insist Iran is in the stronger position and that its adversaries will have to compromise, warning that the talks will collapse unless sanctions are eased.
Western powers, they add, now accept Tehran's right to enrich uranium because they resumed talks while Iran's centrifuges were still spinning in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.
The negotiations have also caused the "Zionists anguish" by thwarting Israel's attempts to drag its western friends into a new war, "Iran's hardline Siyasat-e Ruz daily, proclaimed this month.
Iran insists its nuclear programme is solely peaceful, rejecting western accusations it is seeking a weapons capability.
Farideh Farhi, an Iran specialist at the University of Hawaii, doubted Mr Ahmadinejad will try to undermine the nuclear negotiations. "A consensus has developed in Iran to pursue talks. Ahmadinejad is part of that consensus and being side-lined is not sufficient to break the consensus."
Ms Farhi added that he is "in any case fully occupied in debates regarding the implementation of the second phase" of his controversial subsidy reform programme.
Mr Ahmadinejad, on his 100th provincial tour, has in recent days been visiting north-eastern Iran where he managed to draw large crowds.
"This has always been his idea, that even when he's under fire at home, he has the support of the people," said Scott Lucas, an Iran expert at Birmingham University in England.
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Tips for entertaining with ease
· Set the table the night before. It’s a small job but it will make you feel more organised once done.
· As the host, your mood sets the tone. If people arrive to find you red-faced and harried, they’re not going to relax until you do. Take a deep breath and try to exude calm energy.
· Guests tend to turn up thirsty. Fill a big jug with iced water and lemon or lime slices and encourage people to help themselves.
· Have some background music on to help create a bit of ambience and fill any initial lulls in conversations.
· The meal certainly doesn’t need to be ready the moment your guests step through the door, but if there’s a nibble or two that can be passed around it will ward off hunger pangs and buy you a bit more time in the kitchen.
· You absolutely don’t have to make every element of the brunch from scratch. Take inspiration from our ideas for ready-made extras and by all means pick up a store-bought dessert.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Company%20Profile
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