BANJUL // The venue for the party was the national football arena, and on the invite list was the whole country – save, perhaps, for one man. But the tiny west African republic of Gambia was forced to cancel one of its biggest ever celebrations as its resident dictator, Yahya Jammeh, ignored a deadline to step down.
Ever since Mr Jammeh lost elections last month, the giant Independence Stadium in the Gambian capital, Banjul, had been earmarked as the venue for Thursday’s inauguration ceremony for his successor, Adama Barrow.
By lunchtime, it should have been hosting huge crowds of cheering Gambians marking the end of 22 years of dictatorship in a country that has never had a peaceful transition of power. Instead, the stadium stood empty, and the country on the brink of war, as Mr Jammeh continued to defy mounting international pressure to go.
Rather than presiding over what should have been a triumphant swearing-in party, Mr Barrow took his oath of office at the modest Gambian embassy in neighbouring Senegal. The president-elect was forced to move there last week, amid fears that Mr Jammeh might try to have him killed before he could be sworn in.
In a brief televised speech, he hailed his coming to power as a “victory for the nation”, but then warned the Gambian security forces that they would be deemed “rebels” unless they ended their loyalty to Mr Jammeh immediately.
“I call personally on the armed forces and security agencies to be loyal to the republic, and I command all members of the armed forces to demonstrate their loyalty to me,” he said.
Despite being more akin to a registry-office marriage than a grand coronation, the swearing was greeted with delight by ordinary Gambians, who burst into applause as they watched and stood proudly as the national anthem played.
Meanwhile, troops from the regional Ecowas power bloc continued to mass on the Senegalese border, with full authorisation to roll into Banjul and take Mr Jammeh out by force.
The UN Security Council on Thursday passed a resolution supporting the West African bloc’s efforts to ensure a transfer of power “by political means first”. The original wording of the resolution sought approval for “all necessary measures” but was toned down to ensure unanimous support.
UN diplomats said that if Mr Barrow requested a military intervention, this would provide the legal basis for the use of force.
Sources close to Mr Barrow's office told The National that after being sworn in, he would give Mr Jammeh one last chance to go quietly. However, after weeks in which Mr Jammeh has rejected similar ultimatums from regional leaders acting as "mediators", it seemed unlikely he would submit to one from his direct rival.
The streets of Banjul were deserted and tense on Thursday, with most people staying indoors to avoid what they fear could be a violent showdown. Also watching nervously were thousands of holidaymakers from Britain and the Nordic countries, for whom Gambia’s palm beaches and year-round sun makes it a winter getaway.
While many long-term visitors have opted to stay put, monitoring the crisis from hotel barstools and beach compounds, thousands of others on package holidays have been flown out in recent days. That in turn, has dealt a body blow to tourism, one of the few economic bright spots of the Jammeh era.
“Of course we’re worried about the prospect of an invasion and fighting, but we want Mr Jammeh to go,” said Dauda Jallow, 51, jangling his taxi keys idly as he sat with others outside the empty reggae bars in Senegambia, the main tourist strip in Banjul. “As long as tourists fear there will be chaos, we’ll get no work.”
Amid the anxiety, there is at least a sense of relief that whatever happens in the short term, Mr Jammeh’s days are clearly numbered. Years ago, African leaders who ignored election results largely got away with it, but in the past decade power blocs like Ecowas have become intolerant of those who refuse to play by the democratic game.
So when Mr Jammeh tried to launch a legal challenge to the results of last month’s election – claiming that fraud had cost him victory – none of his fellow leaders saw it as anything other than a naked attempt to cling to power. On Thursday, vice president Isatou Njie Saidy resigned after 20 years in the job, following other members of Mr Jammeh’s cabinet who quit earlier in the week.
It is true that, thanks to his fearsome reputation, most Gambians have been afraid to take the streets to demand that he leaves power. But nobody doubts that the Ecowas force, which numbers more than 1,000 Nigerian, Senegalese and Ghanian troops, backed by air power, will easily outgun Mr Jammeh’s forces should it come to a firefight on the steps of State House, where he is holed up. Tiny Gambia’s army is thought to number only 900. Of those, it is believed Mr Jammeh can count on only 300 loyal fighters in his presidential guard, and many of them may well change sides rather than die for their commander-chief.
“If it comes to a fight, they may just choose to put him under house arrest themselves, or even simply put a bullet in his head,” said one diplomat.
Should Mr Jammeh go quietly at the very last minute, he may still be able to take offers of sanctuary from Morocco, Nigeria, Mauritania, Sudan and Saudi Arabia, among others. But for every hour that now passes, the chances of any mercy towards him from his neighbours and the wider world diminish – as do any hopes that he will be offered immunity from prosecution for human rights abuses.
He has also completely exhausted the goodwill of his fellow Gambians – especially now that he has party-pooped their chance to welcome in his successor.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
With additional reporting from Agence France-Presse