Relations between Iran and other Gulf states are likely to remain hostile for the foreseeable future, according to experts who downplayed the prospect of Russian President Vladimir Putin brokering a regional reconciliation.
At the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, academics and diplomats painted a gloomy picture about the prospects of a reduction in tensions, which have risen over recent months following attacks on tankers in the Arabian Gulf and on the world’s largest oil facility in Saudi Arabia that have been blamed on Tehran.
There has been a suggestion that President Putin, the Russian leader who will visit Saudi Arabia and the Gulf this week, could help reduce tensions given his cordial ties with regimes throughout the region.
However, Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, played down Moscow’s influence over Iran. A senior official, he recalled, told him it was “easier to win a chess game with a champion of the world” than to solve the issues in the Gulf region.
“There is a possibility to influence [Tehran],” Mr Fedorov, now chairman of the Russia-based fund for political research and consulting, said. “But this influence should not be over-exaggerated. It’s a limited influence.
“The last meetings between Mr Putin and [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani, they show that Mr Rouhani is not willing to listen to Russia, he is going on his own way. Iran is trying even to use the current situation to increase its influence, for creating confrontations between Russia, the United States, the EU, etcetera. This is a problem.
“During the coming visit… it will certainly be possible to have a dialogue about the Gulf states and Iran, but knowing Iran, I can say it’s very little hope. Iran is not willing to have a lot of diplomatic dialogue. Iran is now playing on confrontations, and it’s in the interest of Iran to continue playing these confrontations than to go in for dialogue.”
Prince Turki Al Faisal, the Saudi royal and former senior diplomat and head of intelligence, and Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, the chair of the Gulf Cooperation Council, said they were open to improved relations with Iran. But, they said, their efforts have been frustrated by Tehran’s aggression and meddling in the internal affairs of Arab countries.
Mahmood Sariolghalam, professor in International Relations at the National University of Iran, said there were “so many incompatibilities” between the outlooks of Iran and its neighbours that improving links would be very difficult.
“For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have said so clearly that their national objective is to develop economically and to be part of the international community in terms of technological growth,” he said. “Iran is in a different stage of development and that is why it has to go through its evolution.
“I do not see, in the near future, any possibilities of conflict resolution between Iran and its neighbours. What I think we need to do is focus on conflict management.”
Tensions with Iran have heightened this year, following a string of incidents in the Arabian Gulf and the attack on major Saudi oil facilities in September. Initially, Houthis fighting in Yemen claimed responsibility for the oil facilities attack and Iran denies responsibility, but Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and has been backed by Western allies.
The United States came close to ordering an air strike on Iran over attacks last month, before President Donald Trump called it off at the last minute. But, America has deployed thousands of extra troops to Saudi Arabia in response to the September attacks.
Despite pessimism among his fellow panellists, Robert Blackwill, a former US ambassador who served as a deputy national security adviser under President George W Bush, urged a new diplomatic push between Iran and its regional rivals.
The alternative, he warned, could be catastrophic.
“I’m worried this region will get worse before it gets even worse,” he said, of the tense situation. “I think that we’re at a hinge point and all of the counties of the region, the United States, Russia and others, need to do everything possible diplomatically to try to reduce the likelihood of conflict.
“I think the likelihood of conflict in the next five years is high unless diplomacy becomes more important than military action.”
He emphasised the importance of presenting a united front against Iranian aggression. But added: “I seem to be in a minority here in wanting diplomacy with Iran… we’ve negotiated with a variety of enemies since the end of the Second World War and it is through diplomacy that one at least has an opportunity to reduce stress, tension and reduce the likelihood of conflict.
“If we’re able to deter Iran I think there will be a war and a war will be devastating, not only for Iran but for the region. The question is, and the one I ask to leaders in this area when I meet them, is ‘what is your diplomatic strategy for avoiding a war in the region?’ I have to say, I don’t always get a persuasive answer.”
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
RESULT
Bournemouth 0 Southampton 3 (Djenepo (37', Redmond 45' 1, 59')
Man of the match Nathan Redmond (Southampton)
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UAE SQUAD
Omar Abdulrahman (Al Hilal), Ali Khaseif, Ali Mabkhout, Salem Rashed, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Zayed Al Ameri, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Khalid Essa, Ahmed Barman, Ryan Yaslam, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmin (Al Wasl), Adel Al Hosani, Ali Hassan Saleh, Majed Suroor (Sharjah), Ahmed Khalil, Walid Abbas, Majed Hassan, Ismail Al Hammadi (Shabab Al Ahli), Hassan Al Muharrami, Fahad Al Dhahani (Bani Yas), Mohammed Al Shaker (Ajman)
