Social and political tension fuelled by climate change have yet to translate into international military confrontations, but local conflicts are heating up due to pressures such as drought and water scarcity.
In fragile states, such as Yemen and South Sudan, competition for scarce natural resources is increasing, while a growing need for humanitarian aid undermines states' ability to deal with climate risks, Johan Schaar, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said on Wednesday.
"I don't see big, shooting wars but I think you will have an increasing frequency of very localised conflicts and tensions that could then escalate into much more," Mr Schaar said at World Water Week in Stockholm.
Climate-related disasters often force people from their homes, putting a strain on the communities into which they move and stirring grievances, he said.
In South Sudan, the world's newest country, climate change is shortening and delaying the rainy season, while almost 80 per cent of the rural population is affected by droughts and floods, said Alier Oka, the undersecretary at the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.
"Climate change has impacted resources. Rainfall variability is the key issue," he said at the conference.
That is pushing some herders to consider moving to new areas in search of pasture and water, where they are likely to run into problems with settled farmers.
"This is common in South Sudan and happening now," Mr Oka said.
As a result, looting of cattle and tribal fighting are occurring more frequently, he said.
In Yemen, embroiled in civil war since 2015, water has become "weaponised", said Muna Luqman, chair of Food4Humanity, a local charity.
Half the population has no access to safe drinking water, which was already a scarce commodity in the arid country before the Iran-backed Houthis overran the capital Sanaa, she said.
Lawlessness combined with climate stresses such as drought and extreme heat, has worsened health and social problems with women and children worst-hit, she said.
Yemen is suffering its third major cholera outbreak since 2015.
But using water wisely can foster peace, said Ms Luqman, who has worked on projects to encourage tribes in remote areas to share water stations.
More than half the world's population is likely to live in water-scarce areas by 2050, said the Economist Intelligence Unit, which launched a "Blue Peace" index this month to better manage shared water supplies.
Elisabeth van Duin, a director at the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, warned that a lack of safe water, migration and population growth could all "destabilise societies and contribute to regional conflict".
From Syria to Lake Chad, climate change has escalated tensions, Ms van Duin said, with global hotspots in the future likely to include India and China, where millions of people are set to become victims of droughts and floods by 2050.
"Water can become a weapon in conflict," she told the conference. She said that climate and water stress would be "particularly hard on the developing world".
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Cracks in the Wall
Ben White, Pluto Press
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
More on Quran memorisation:
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
Match statistics
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 36 Bahrain 32
Harlequins
Tries: Penalty 2, Stevenson, Teasdale, Semple
Cons: Stevenson 2
Pens: Stevenson
Bahrain
Tries: Wallace 2, Heath, Evans, Behan
Cons: Radley 2
Pen: Radley
Man of the match: Craig Nutt (Harlequins)
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Brief scoreline:
Burnley 3
Barnes 63', 70', Berg Gudmundsson 75'
Southampton 3
Man of the match
Ashley Barnes (Burnley)
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
Why the Tourist Club?
Originally, The Club (which many people chose to call the “British Club”) was the only place where one could use the beach with changing rooms and a shower, and get refreshments.
In the early 1970s, the Government of Abu Dhabi wanted to give more people a place to get together on the beach, with some facilities for children. The place chosen was where the annual boat race was held, which Sheikh Zayed always attended and which brought crowds of locals and expatriates to the stretch of beach to the left of Le Méridien and the Marina.
It started with a round two-storey building, erected in about two weeks by Orient Contracting for Sheikh Zayed to use at one these races. Soon many facilities were planned and built, and members were invited to join.
Why it was called “Nadi Al Siyahi” is beyond me. But it is likely that one wanted to convey the idea that this was open to all comers. Because there was no danger of encountering alcohol on the premises, unlike at The Club, it was a place in particular for the many Arab expatriate civil servants to join. Initially the fees were very low and membership was offered free to many people, too.
Eventually there was a skating rink, bowling and many other amusements.
Frauke Heard-Bey is a historian and has lived in Abu Dhabi since 1968.
