Supporters of the Aam Aadmi Party, or Common Man’s Party, celebrate their party’s victory in New Delhi on February 10, 2015. Tsering Topgyal/AP Photo
Supporters of the Aam Aadmi Party, or Common Man’s Party, celebrate their party’s victory in New Delhi on February 10, 2015. Tsering Topgyal/AP Photo

First setback for Modi as AAP sweeps to victory in Delhi



NEW DELHI // The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) romped to a landslide victory in the Delhi assembly elections, winning a second chance to govern the capital and puncturing the aura around prime minister Narendra Modi’s party since it swept national elections in May.

Exit polls had already been optimistic about the AAP’s performance in last Saturday’s election, but the results announced on Tuesday trumped even the best of those predictions.

The anti-corruption party led by Arvind Kejriwal won 66 out of the assembly’s 70 seats, while Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party took only three seats.

The Congress party — India’s oldest party, which ruled Delhi between 1998 and 2013 — didn’t win any seats, sparking protests by party workers.

In contrast, celebrations erupted outside AAP’s headquarters barely an hour after results began trickling in at 8am on Tuesday. Party volunteers sang and danced around the gates, watching the results live on a giant television as AAP’s vote count climbed upwards.

Overall, the AAP won about 54 per cent of the votes — a dramatic increase from the December 2013 assembly elections, when it garnered 29.5 per cent. On that occasion, the AAP took 28 seats compared to the BJP’s 31, and was able to form a coalition government only with the support of the Congress party, which won eight seats.

However, after merely 49 days into his term, Mr Kejriwal resigned as chief minister, citing claims that the Congress and the BJP were thwarting his government's legislative efforts.

Afterwards, Delhi was administered by its lieutenant governor, as it waited for fresh polls for more than a year.

The hype generated around the AAP after the December 2013 election might have damaged the party, Yogendra Yadav, a senior AAP leader, told the NDTV news channel on Tuesday. He cited the party's rushed decision making, during its brief term, as one consequence of that hype.

Mr Yadav called the results a wave of support for AAP. “It isn’t just the underclass that is voting for AAP, as people thought. It’s the middle classes as well,” he said.

Apart from the promise to root out corruption, the party will also deliver on its promises of free electricity and water, “and of addressing the problems of those who remain unsung in Delhi”, Mr Yadav said.

Although Mr Modi, who led his party to a massive win in parliamentary elections last summer and in three state elections since, campaigned vigorously during the Delhi polls, the BJP insisted that the defeat was no reflection upon the prime minister.

“In this election, it was a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal,” GVL Narasimha Rao, a BJP spokesperson, said. “It was a referendum of AAP’s 49 days in office and its performance. People felt they should be given a chance.”

On Twitter, Mr Modi said: “Spoke to @ArvindKejriwal & congratulated him on the win. Assured him Centre’s complete support in the development of Delhi.”

Mr Yadav felt that Mr Modi had made a mistake by involving himself so deeply in the Delhi polls.

“This is a Delhi-specific result,” he said. “I do not think that the days of the BJP are over. But the juggernaut seems to be halted, at least for the time being.”

Pradip Datta, a professor of political science at Delhi University, called the results “quite amazing”.

“For a party that was down and out this time last year, to recover the confidence of its volunteers and the people, is quite something,” he said.

Mr Datta ascribed the BJP's defeat in part to Mr Modi's performance in the nine months since he became prime minister. "There's a perception that he hasn't delivered on his promises, and that he is pro-rich and somewhat self-obsessed," Mr Datta told The National.

The “unabashed anti-minorityism” of the BJP’s Hindu nationalist allies also did not help the party, Mr Datta added.

“That knocks out the minority vote for them completely, which is 15 or 20 per cent of the population,” he said. “And by other voters also, it’s seen as a distraction.”

For months now, the AAP has held “mohalla sabhas”, or neighbourhood meets, in which citizens have been able to air their concerns and influence the drafting of the party’s manifesto.

What the AAP also did to help boost its support, Mr Datta said, was to organise its volunteers well and to concentrate on covering local issues, which matter more in such elections than in parliamentary polls.

ssubramanian@thenational.ae

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Bangladesh tour of Pakistan

January 24 – First T20, Lahore

January 25 – Second T20, Lahore

January 27 – Third T20, Lahore

February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi

April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi

April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.