NEW YORK // The Obama administration has muted its criticism of the Egyptian government in recent weeks as it seeks Cairo’s involvement in the coalition of Arab countries fighting ISIL extremists.
Egypt’s role in the latest war in Gaza, in which it tacitly aligned with Israel against Hamas, and an acceptance in Washington that Egypt’s president, Abdul Fattah El Sisi, has consolidated his rule at a time when Egyptians are desperate for a return to stability, have also helped to improve Cairo’s standing, analysts said.
In the year after Mr El Sisi overthrew his Islamist predecessor in a popular uprising, fears in the White House as well as Congress about Cairo’s policies resulted in a partial suspension of military aid and strained relations.
While significant questions remain about the countries’ ties, analysts said that cooperation against threats such as ISIL outweighed concerns about domestic Egyptian politics.
In September, US defence secretary Chuck Hagel said Washington would finally deliver 10 Apache attack helicopters that Egyptian officials say are crucial in their fight against Islamist extremists on the western border and in Sinai.
According to US and Egyptian officials, the Apaches – not F-16 jets and other hardware that Egypt had bought with previous years’ financing – will finally be delivered after military aid was blocked in June by senator Patrick Leahy, who said he was disturbed by Egypt’s imprisonment of journalists and mass death sentences for members of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The White House has the executive authority to deliver the helicopters regardless of Mr Leahy’s objections because they fall under counter-terrorism aid, and also because they were paid for with funds from 2009, experts said.
Barack Obama, the US president, met Mr El Sisi for the first time since his May election victory at last month’s UN General Assembly, and US secretary of state John Kerry attended a Gaza donor’s conference in Cairo last week, where his comments focused on the importance of economic reconstruction and Egypt’s role in combating extremism.
After the two presidents met, Mr Obama’s deputy national security adviser, Ben Rhodes, said that Mr Obama “underscored his commitment to the strategic partnership” and that they agreed to “expand cooperation on a range of issues, including our military intelligence and counterterrorism relationship”.
The UN meeting and plans to release the Apaches – although they have yet to be delivered – “signifies that the White House is looking to move beyond the disagreement about Egypt’s domestic politics and prioritise strategic cooperation”, said Eric Trager, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.
Mr El Sisi and Egypt’s foreign minister have voiced support for the campaign against ISIL, but analysts doubt Egypt is willing or able to contribute militarily.
Cairo has security problems from extremists on its western border with Libya and in Sinai, and Egyptian officials frame this as part of the broader fight against Islamist extremists, including ISIL, Mr Trager said.
“Will Egypt actually be a participant in the fight against ISIL in Syria and Iraq? I strongly doubt it,” he said.
Egyptian officials are still waiting for the Apaches to be delivered, which they view as an important sign of commitment. Over the past year, Cairo has signalled that it would look elsewhere for military relationships, such as with Russia, from where it recently bought weapons and equipment worth US$3.5 billion (Dh12.85bn).
But most observers say that for Cairo, its military relationship with Washington is irreplaceable.
“Russia is not going to give them anything for free,” Mr Trager said. “And we do.”
The $1.3 billion in annual military aid the US has given Egypt since 1987, after its peace accord with Israel, has come under increasing scrutiny over the past year by legislators from both parties in Washington, as budgets tighten and as it became unclear how much influence on Egyptian domestic or security policy the money buys. There has been debate in Congress over whether to end the credit system, known as cash-flow financing, that allowed Egypt to place orders with US defence firms using money it expected to receive in the future.
More immediately, the current appropriations law requires the administration to certify that Egypt is fulfilling its obligations to the peace treaty with Israel, is cooperating on counter-terrorism and also that the government is taking steps to govern democratically and that presidential and parliamentary elections are held.
The first two conditions were certified by Mr Kerry in April, releasing $650 million in military and economic aid. But the democracy certification has yet to be made.
Observers in Washington said that they sensed a shift in the administration and Congress, where there have been strong dissenting voices to continuing the aid relationship in its current form.
“I don’t know to what extent the new regional situation will dampen a desire to make significant changes, [but] I doubt there is much wider inclination to rock the boat” in the current context, said Amy Hawthorne, a fellow at the Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle East.
“The most important issue in the view of Washington, across the board, is Mr Sisi’s willingness to work closely with Israel in Sinai and on Gaza and his seemingly more positive stance towards Israel in general.”
The $1.3bn in military aid for Egypt will not officially run out until September 2015, though because only about half of the money has been released, at some point before then the money for pre-existing defence contracts will likely run out, placing added pressure on the State Department to make the democracy certification. “I would guess the logic of the relationship, especially in terms of keeping defence contracts going, is pulling toward making the certification at some point,” Ms Hawthorne said. But even if the parliamentary elections are held by the end of the year, there is enough remaining skepticism among some in the White House about the democratic transition and whether Mr El Sisi’s security policies are paving the way for long-term stability that the certification is not guaranteed. Elections “will be weighed against the broader environment of whether they truly bring legitimacy and the prospect of political and security stability”, said Brian Katulis, an expert on US policy in the region at the Center for American Progress, a think tank with close ties to the White House. “Regional dynamics might make some inside the administration lower the bar, but I don’t know if that’s a consensus position yet.” The recent moves signal an openness within the administration to figure out ways to reengage with the El Sisi government, Mr Katulis said, but “it’s not back to business as usual”.
tkhan@thenational.ae
