The impasse over Qatar's rejection of calls from its neighbours to stop incitement and support for extremists is hardening into a long-term division that will hurt the region, according to leading experts on Gulf politics.
Jane Kinninmont, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House in London, has warned that without a change of heart by Qatar the consequences of the boycott would be widely felt both in the economy of the Gulf, known in Arabic as Khaleej Al Arabi, and in the politics of the wider Middle East.
"UAE businesses can live without the Qatari market," Ms Kinninmont said, "but it's a blow to both businesses and families who have built transnational ties over the years, encouraged by promises of GCC integration and a growing sense of 'Khaleeji' identity.
"[It] seems likely that the Gulf standoff will continue for the long term, and that even if it is resolved, bad blood will persist. This will make the rest of the region's conflicts more difficult to resolve, as Gulf states are influential in all of them and a divided Gulf will lead to further divisions elsewhere.
"We've already seen Qatar-Saudi divisions play out within the Syrian opposition in the early days of the uprising there, weakening the opposition's cause," she continued.
Even the refining of The Quartet's initial 13 conditions into the set of six principles, has not seen the underlying causes of the crisis addressed.
Statements on Wednesday by Dr Anwar Gargash, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, has increased fear that the crisis will continue for some time.
Dr Gargash said that the quartet of nations, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt, would "have to go on without Qatar", signalling that the discord, which began last month, was no longer temporary and that looking beyond their neighbour state could become the new normal.
"Now that [the] Qatar crisis has taken so long, important to look beyond 'crisis' & think of it as [a] new set of relations in [the] Gulf replacing old ones," Dr Gargash said in a series of tweets.
According to Ms Kinninmont: "Both sides of the Gulf dispute are sending the message that they can wait this out. Qatar hasn't caved under economic pressure, and meanwhile the UAE is signalling that it is committed to its strategy for the long term.
"Barring Qatar's review of past policies, [the] current state will continue for a while. New regional relationship will emerge & strengthen."
The crisis has placed "a question mark over the future of the GCC, even though the UAE and KSA are keen to imply that the GCC could forge ahead without Qatar; even if they succeed in expelling Qatar," she said.
Alison Woods, Gulf analyst for Control Risks, a global risk consultancy, told The National that what "we have seen over the last two weeks is that there has unwillingness on either side to back down", so Dr Gargash's remarks and his "frankness" were not surprising to close observers of the crisis.
While the strong message from Dr Gargash has set a new tone for the crisis, Ms Wood notes that there are continuing efforts from both within and outside the region to bring about a resolution or to at least set a framework for serious negotiations based on a change in Qatar's policies.
"Conversations about compromise will have been taking place through back-channel negotiations," Ms Wood said.
Sources added that state leaders and people in positions of succession have remained resolute over the dispute.
"Dr Gargash's tweets suggest that the quartet is attempting to strike a balance between maintaining the pressure on Qatar and watering down any hopes for successful mediation of the crisis, while not escalating further in the absence of international support for formal new measures against Qatar," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute and the author of The United Arab Emirates: Power, Politics and Policymaking.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
More coverage from the Future Forum
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-cylinder%2C%204.8-litre%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E280%20brake%20horsepower%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E451Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh153%2C00%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
