The disastrous consequences of climate tipping points could be averted if global warming were reversed quickly enough, new research suggests.
Crossing these limits was considered a point of no return, but a University of Exeter study concludes that thresholds could be "temporarily exceeded" without causing permanent shifts.
Tipping points are defined as small changes within a complex system causing disproportionately large changes to the system. They can be compared to the game of Jenga where bricks are removed from a tower one by one until the 'tipping brick' causes the whole edifice to crumble.
Climate tipping points are a little more nuanced and can be grouped into fast-onset and slow-onset categories.
The study focused on four examples: Amazon rainforest dieback – fast onset; Indian summer monsoon – fast onset; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – slow onset; and ice sheet melt – slow onset.
For the study, the researchers calculated "time to act" as the time taken to reverse warming and stabilise at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The window available to recover the damage spawned by reaching these tipping points depended on whether they were fast or slow onset and the level of global warming at the time.
"The more extreme the warming, the less time we would have to prevent tipping points," said lead author Dr Paul Ritchie, of the university's Global Systems Institute and the Department of Mathematics.
"This is especially true for fast-onset tipping points like Amazon forest dieback and disruption to monsoons, where irreversible change could take place in a matter of decades.
"Slow-onset tipping points take place over a timescale of many centuries and, depending on the level of warming, this would give us more time to act."
Climate tipping points and thresholds
Dr Ritchie told The National that it was "important to highlight the difference between tipping points and tipping point thresholds" which are "frequently overlooked in the literature".
"The tipping point threshold is the critical level of forcing (i.e. global mean warming) at which tipping would first be triggered if the forcing stayed constant at that level for a sufficiently long period of time," he said.
"The tipping point itself is the point at which we actually observe the transition. So if the forcing were to continue to rise after crossing the threshold, then the tipping point would be later than the threshold.
Need to act on climate change still urgent
Even if there is a little more leeway on some climate tipping points than others, Dr Ritchie said it shouldn't lead to complacency among global policymakers.
"Action still needs to be taken now to reduce global warming because ultimately the safest thing to do is not to cross these thresholds," he said.
"However, if we are to cross a threshold then the key message is to not give up, there is still the hope that we can avoid the disastrous consequences of a climate tipping point if global warming can be reversed quickly."
The four climate tipping points in the study
1. Amazon rainforest dieback - fast onset
The Amazon rainforest is one of the largest natural carbon sinks. Large-scale dieback of the forest, via increased temperatures and drying, or direct deforestation, would further amplify global warming.
2. Indian summer monsoon - fast onset
The Indian monsoon is crucial for the local economy, as well as being important for agriculture, river systems and water stock. However, an increase in the planetary albedo (increases in the atmospheric brown cloud haze over India) has the capability of switching off the monsoon.
3. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – slow onset
The Amoc is a large-scale circulation current in the Atlantic Ocean, which is responsible for giving western Europe its relatively mild climate when compared to other locations at a similar latitude (such as Siberia). Adding freshwater to the North Atlantic could disrupt the downwelling that occurs in this region leading to a collapse of the large-scale current.
4. Ice sheet melt – slow onset
The melting of major ice sheets would lead to significant increases in sea level. Under increased warming ice starts to melt, which results in less incoming radiation being reflected and more being absorbed. This in turn leads to hotter temperatures and more ice melting, possibly generating a feedback loop to an ice-free state – but crucially over many centuries.
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The line up
Friday: Giggs, Sho Madjozi and Masego
Saturday: Nas, Lion Bbae, Roxanne Shante and DaniLeigh
Sole DXB runs from December 6 to 8 at Dubai Design District. Weekend pass is Dh295 while a one day pass is Dh195. Tickets are available from www.soledxb.com
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The advice provided in our columns does not constitute legal advice and is provided for information only. Readers are encouraged to seek independent legal advice.
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Leganes v Getafe (12am)
Levante v Alaves (4pm)
Real Madrid v Sevilla (7pm)
Osasuna v Valladolid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Eibar v Atletico Madrid (12am)
Mallorca v Valencia (3pm)
Real Betis v Real Sociedad (5pm)
Villarreal v Espanyol (7pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Barcelona v Granada (12am)
Quick%20facts
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
The%20Kitchen
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The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
match info
Southampton 2 (Ings 32' & pen 89') Tottenham Hotspur 5 (Son 45', 47', 64', & 73', Kane 82')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Richard Jewell
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Brandon Stanley
Two-and-a-half out of five stars
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Tim Paine (captain), Sean Abbott, Pat Cummins, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Will Pucovski, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade, David Warner
