The release on Monday of a UK government report into its three-tier coronavirus lockdown strategy has failed to quell the growing tide of anger from politicians.
The main finding of the document, titled Analysis of the Health, Economic and Social Effects of Covid-19 and the Approach to Tiering, is that it is too early to draw conclusions on the wider effects of the measures, which were imposed on districts with varying levels of restrictions depending on local levels of transmission.
“It is not possible to know with any degree of confidence what path the economy would take if restrictions in place were not sufficient to prevent exponential growth or in the absence of restrictions entirely,” it said.
“On the one hand, fewer or no restrictions would allow many people and businesses to operate as normal, if they chose to do so.
“On the other hand, more widespread infections and the consequences of pressure on the NHS [National Health Service] would affect spending in the economy due to voluntary social distancing, effects to confidence and impacts on businesses, including through high levels of employee sickness.”
Whether this ambivalent verdict will sway any wavering MPs before Tuesday’s vote on the tier system in Parliament remains to be seen.
But UK Health Minister Matt Hancock quoted another report as evidence of the effectiveness of lockdown.
The React-1 study by Imperial College London found that Covid-19 cases had fallen by a third during lockdown.
“They have been working,” Mr Hancock said. “This is clearly good news. It shows the national restrictions have been successful … we have got this virus back under control.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been under increasing pressure from the large number of lockdown sceptics in his party to produce evidence to support measures regarded by libertarian Conservatives as draconian.
The government’s report was intended to ease their concerns but instead has sparked more frustration.
“I am disappointed MPs, journalists and the public have been given so little time to digest information of this magnitude,” said Covid Recovery Group chair Mark Harper, an MP.
“We are, after all, talking about imposing some of the most severe restrictions on our constituents and the way they lead their lives and run their businesses.”
Mr Harper’s concerns are also unlikely to be eased by Mr Hancock’s optimism over the fall in daily coronavirus cases, which were down to their lowest level since September on Monday at 12,330 infections.
Instead of concluding that the fall is a sign of the need for restrictions, anti-lockdown Tories believe the opposite applies.
While the report fails to address the central question over the long-term economic impact of the tiers, it does seek to provide a compelling case for restrictions on public health grounds.
How the tiers affect health care
The report claims that without mitigating measures, hospitals would soon be overwhelmed.
When the R rate – the average number infected by a person with Covid – was greater than 1, there was rapid growth in hospital admissions in England.
The below graphic shows the rise in admissions up to this point and the tapering during the second lockdown.
The report warns that if hospital capacity were exceeded, avoidable Covid and non-Covid deaths would have resulted.
It says this would be “intolerable”, although it admits that the size of any possible breach could not be predicted because of the number of variables.
The report lists what is at stake should the NHS become overwhelmed:
- Half a million emergency admissions
- 49,000 cancer treatments
- 10,000 hip replacements
- 7,000 knee replacements
- 39,000 cataract operations
- 2 million first outpatient appointments and millions of other treatments
How the tiers affect mental health
One of the arguments used against lockdown is its effect on mental health.
The report rebuts this, saying adverse effects on mental health would rise if the pandemic were left unchecked.
“It would be expected that higher rates of post-traumatic stress disorder would be seen amongst health and social care staff, patients who contract Covid-19 [including those admitted to hospital and in intensive care], and the relatives of those who die,” it states.
“People in the high-risk category may also experience higher levels of worry.”
UK Covid tier restrictions as of December 2
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Kathmandu.%20Fares%20with%20Air%20Arabia%20and%20flydubai%20start%20at%20Dh1%2C265.%3Cbr%3EIn%20Kathmandu%2C%20rooms%20at%20the%20Oasis%20Kathmandu%20Hotel%20start%20at%20Dh195%20and%20Dh120%20at%20Hotel%20Ganesh%20Himal.%3Cbr%3EThird%20Rock%20Adventures%20offers%20professionally%20run%20group%20and%20individual%20treks%20and%20tours%20using%20highly%20experienced%20guides%20throughout%20Nepal%2C%20Bhutan%20and%20other%20parts%20of%20the%20Himalayas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Fixtures (all in UAE time)
Friday
Everton v Burnley 11pm
Saturday
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur 3.30pm
West Ham United v Southampton 6pm
Wolves v Fulham 6pm
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace 8.30pm
Newcastle United v Liverpool 10.45pm
Sunday
Chelsea v Watford 5pm
Huddersfield v Manchester United 5pm
Arsenal v Brighton 7.30pm
Monday
Manchester City v Leicester City 11pm
U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
Saturday 15 January: v Canada
Thursday 20 January: v England
Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly, Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya Shetty, Kai Smith
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
How Filipinos in the UAE invest
A recent survey of 10,000 Filipino expatriates in the UAE found that 82 per cent have plans to invest, primarily in property. This is significantly higher than the 2014 poll showing only two out of 10 Filipinos planned to invest.
Fifty-five percent said they plan to invest in property, according to the poll conducted by the New Perspective Media Group, organiser of the Philippine Property and Investment Exhibition. Acquiring a franchised business or starting up a small business was preferred by 25 per cent and 15 per cent said they will invest in mutual funds. The rest said they are keen to invest in insurance (3 per cent) and gold (2 per cent).
Of the 5,500 respondents who preferred property as their primary investment, 54 per cent said they plan to make the purchase within the next year. Manila was the top location, preferred by 53 per cent.
More from Aya Iskandarani
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
MAIN CARD
Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari
Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam
Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni
Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nag%20Ashwin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPrabhas%2C%20Saswata%20Chatterjee%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20Amitabh%20Bachchan%2C%20Shobhana%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%E2%98%85%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Hidden killer
Sepsis arises when the body tries to fight an infection but damages its own tissue and organs in the process.
The World Health Organisation estimates it affects about 30 million people each year and that about six million die.
Of those about three million are newborns and 1.2 are young children.
Patients with septic shock must often have limbs amputated if clots in their limbs prevent blood flow, causing the limbs to die.
Campaigners say the condition is often diagnosed far too late by medical professionals and that many patients wait too long to seek treatment, confusing the symptoms with flu.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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ARGENTINA SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Franco Armani, Agustin Marchesin, Esteban Andrada
Defenders: Juan Foyth, Nicolas Otamendi, German Pezzella, Nicolas Tagliafico, Ramiro Funes Mori, Renzo Saravia, Marcos Acuna, Milton Casco
Midfielders: Leandro Paredes, Guido Rodriguez, Giovani Lo Celso, Exequiel Palacios, Roberto Pereyra, Rodrigo De Paul, Angel Di Maria
Forwards: Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Lautaro Martinez, Paulo Dybala, Matias Suarez
The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
Opening weekend Premier League fixtures
Weekend of August 10-13
Arsenal v Manchester City
Bournemouth v Cardiff City
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham United
Manchester United v Leicester City
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Southampton v Burnley
Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP%204
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The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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RESULTS
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 – Group 1 (PA) $49,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner El Patriota, Vagner Leal, Antonio Cintra
7.40pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,000m
Winner Ya Hayati, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby
8.15pm Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Althiqa, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Soft Whisper, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm Handicap (TB) $68,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner Bedouin’s Story, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
Pathaan
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