The new strain of coronavirus is at least 30 per cent deadlier than the original disease, leading to significantly higher deaths in Britain, two leading scientists have concluded.
Whereas one in 55 people who tested positive for Covid-19 in the first wave died, now at least one in 40 is dying, according to a medical paper seen by The National.
The findings could have significant political fallout, with countries across Europe already under pressure to shut their borders to travellers from Britain.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson corroborated these findings at Friday's Covid press briefing. He said the data could explain why the health service has come under intense pressure in recent weeks.
"There is some evidence the new variant...may be associated with a higher degree of mortality," he said.
"It is largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under so much intense pressure."
He announced that a further 1,401 Covid deaths had been recorded in the past 24 hours, along with another 40,261 cases.
The report, titled Abrupt Increase in the UK Coronavirus Death-case Ratio in December 2020, was compiled in the past week by Professor Sir David Wallace and Prof Graeme Ackland, who are among Britain's most respected computer modellers.
They studied infection and fatality figures since early December, when the new variant began to dominate testing results in some areas, and have suggested that not only is it more infectious but it kills more people.
There is now a possibility that Britain's death toll could double to 200,000, Prof Ackland told The National. "We might get out of this pandemic with 140,000 deaths but if something else happens, if there's a worse variant, or our fears about the new variant being deadlier are confirmed, then it might go to 200,000 deaths," he said.
Public Health England previously said the mutant strain had the same mortality rate as the original Covid, but slow and skewed reporting of deaths and infections over the Christmas period may have hidden that the new strain is deadlier.
“We have shown that the relationship between positive tests and subsequent deaths in the UK changed significantly around early December,” the mathematicians said.
In a worrying conclusion for senior government figures and medical staff, the paper states that the increased number of cases-to-fatality rate suggests that the new mutation VOC [Variant of Concern] is the “possible causation”.
Sir David and Prof Ackland wrote: “We can identify several possibilities. One interpretation would be that the new variant of the coronavirus produces a more severe infection as well as being more transmissible.”
However, the pair, who have rapidly published their findings, said there was “currently no clinical evidence” to support their arguments and the R rate in the UK has fallen sharply since last week, suggesting the lockdown is having an impact on spread of the virus.
Case rate drops but 100,000 Covid deaths milestone looms
The R, which refers to the number of people that an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to, fell to between 0.8 and 1 across the UK, according to the Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on Friday. It had stood at 1.2 to 1.3.
Despite this, Britain’s significantly high number of fatalities – with an average 1,220 deaths a day over the past week – is expected to hit 100,000 early next week.
Many countries are now considering blocking all travel from Britain as a result of the variant.
With Germany just crossing the threshold of 50,000 deaths, Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday referred to the “British virus”, suggesting its impact might mean a longer and harder lockdown. “We know the British virus is here, any easing strategy has to be done very carefully,” she said.
The scientists' paper examined the reason for the number of deaths since December that had been “higher than expected from the number of positive tests”.
Throughout October and November 2020, deaths in England are well described as 1/55th of detected cases from 12 days previously. After that, the relationship no longer holds and deaths are significantly higher
The paper said: “A higher morbidity for the VOC [Variant of Concern] is one among many possible reasons. Its appearance at a significant level in the south-east in December matches the timing of the increase in expected deaths. This increase is delayed in regions such as Yorkshire where the VOC arrived later.”
However, the latest data from the Office of National Statistics on Friday shows that regions outside the south-east are now experiencing higher infection rates from the new strain.
The paper cited top statistician David Spiegelhalter, whose previous figure of one death to every 55 positive Covid tests had been accepted as accurate, but the paper says that ratio is no longer viable.
“This relationship begins to fail in December, with unexpectedly high death rates. This may be correlated in time and region with the emergence of the Variant of Concern (VOC) B117,” it said.
“Throughout October and November 2020, deaths in England are well described as 1/55th of detected cases from 12 days previously. After that, the relationship no longer holds and deaths are significantly higher.”
In reference to London and the south-east of England, where the strain first emerged, it stated: "This is especially true in regions affected by the VOC B117. In early December, some new factor emerged to increase the case-fatality rate in the UK."
Are younger people dying from the new variant?
While it is currently unclear whether younger people are dying from the virus there is evidence for significantly higher numbers of under 40s contracting it, possibly after gathering over the Christmas period. “UK data was highly skewed by underreporting over Christmas and New Year,” the paper said.
The paper has been submitted to the Medical Archive for peer review, but has already been read by several experts, the authors said.
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Coronavirus UK - in pictures
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
2019 ASIAN CUP FINAL
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EImelda%20Staunton%2C%20Jonathan%20Pryce%2C%20Lesley%20Manville%2C%20Jonny%20Lee%20Miller%2C%20Dominic%20West%2C%20Elizabeth%20Debicki%2C%20Salim%20Daw%20and%20Khalid%20Abdalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWritten%20by%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPeter%20Morgan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%20stars%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
SEMI-FINAL
Monterrey 1
Funes Mori (14)
Liverpool 2
Keita (11), Firmino (90 1)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Results
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Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch
The years Ramadan fell in May
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The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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%3Cp%3EYears%3A%20October%202015%20-%20June%202024%3Cbr%3ETotal%20games%3A%20491%3Cbr%3EWin%20percentage%3A%2060.9%25%3Cbr%3EMajor%20trophies%3A%206%20(Premier%20League%20x%201%2C%20Champions%20League%20x%201%2C%20FA%20Cup%20x%201%2C%20League%20Cup%20x%202%2C%20Fifa%20Club%20World%20Cup%20x1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Price, base: Dh228,000 / Dh232,000 (est)
Engine: 5.7-litre Hemi V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 552Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.5L / 100km
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%202%2C%20v%20Sri%20Lanka%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%204%2C%20v%20India%3Cbr%3EWed%20Oct%205%2C%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EFri%20Oct%207%2C%20v%20Thailand%3Cbr%3ESun%20Oct%209%2C%20v%20Pakistan%3Cbr%3ETue%20Oct%2011%2C%20v%20Bangladesh%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EChaya%20Mughal%20(captain)%2C%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Priyanjali%20Jain%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Natasha%20Cherriath%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Rishitha%20Rajith%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Mahika%20Gaur%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
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RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
