ISTANBUL // A mix of political defeats, growing economic problems and corruption scandals has pricked the aura of invincible political power surrounding Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, who has been reminded by one prominent newspaper columnist that no one stays at the top forever.
Mr Erdogan, 54, has been prime minister since 2003 and is the most powerful leader Turkey has had in decades. His government can rely on the comfortable majority of his religiously conservative Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in parliament. The AKP, which won a landslide victory in a general election last year with almost 47 per cent of the vote, has 339 deputies in the chamber of 550 seats.
But even though Mr Erdogan's government persuaded the European Union to start membership negotiations with Turkey in 2005, has presided over an impressive economic boom in recent years and has improved the country's human rights record, discontent is growing.
"No party can stay in power eternally," wrote Mehmet Barlas, a columnist for the daily Sabah newspaper, which is considered to be sympathetic to the government. "If a party is very strong for a period of time and even if it is without alternative, this is temporary. A foreign event, an economic crisis, a big scandal can change the whole situation."
Mr Erdogan seems to have been hit with several of these at once. He failed to secure an end to the headscarf ban at Turkey's universities, a key issue for the AKP's more pious voters, and the AKP itself narrowly escaped being shut down by the country's Constitutional Court after the chief prosecutor accused the ruling party of being an Islamic organisation.
The AKP's reputation of being the guarantor of economic growth and stability has also suffered. After almost six and a half years of uninterrupted economic growth that peaked at almost 10 per cent annually, a period that saw a large-scale liberalisation including the privatisation of many state companies, Turkey's economy has slowed down considerably, the growth rate dropping to 1.9 per cent in the second quarter of this year.
Polls show that the Turks' confidence in the economy has been shaken. In a recent survey, 41 per cent said they expected next year to be worse than this one, and only 30 per cent expressed optimism, pollster Adil Gur told the Taraf newspaper. A further worsening of the economic situation would significantly hurt Turkey's middle and lower classes, important voter groups for the AKP.
Just as bad for Mr Erdogan, the AKP has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals. For a party that was founded by Mr Erdogan in 2001 as a new political force that would end the corruption by party politicians in Ankara, these scandals are especially painful. The word "ak" means "white" or "clean" in Turkish.
Earlier this month, Saban Disli, a deputy party chief of the AKP, was forced to resign after being accused of taking a US$1 million (Dh3.67m) bribe in a real estate deal. In the western city of Izmir, AKP politicians publicly accused a local party leader of corruption.
Last week, a court in Germany handed down jail sentences to three officials of "Deniz Feneri", or Lighthouse, a Turkish charity accused of raising money from Turks in Germany and then transferring large sums to companies in Turkey. Leading Lighthouse representatives are AKP members, and the opposition in Ankara says the money was used to finance media close to the AKP, and that parts of it may have ended up with the party itself.
The AKP denies the accusations, but even some of its top officials are uneasy. People guilty of corruption "have to be pushed out, whatever their political identity may be", Bulent Arinc, a former parliamentary speaker, said. "Every crime, every accusation has to be investigated. One cannot avoid this issue just by cursing it."
AKP followers have begun to voice their frustration. The scandal surrounding the Lighthouse charity "has created a trauma in conservative circles", Ali Bulac, a columnist with the pro-government daily Zaman, told the news channel NTV. Mr Bulac estimated that about half of the religiously conservative supporters of the AKP thought the scandal was fabricated by opponents of the government or maybe even by Germany in order to create trouble for the Erdogan government. "But in the other 50 per cent segment, people say, 'No, there is serious corruption'."
The weakness of Turkey's opposition parties, which have not been able to strengthen their support since they were trounced by the AKP last year, means that for all his problems, Mr Erdogan does not have to fear the next election day. Mr Gur said he expected the AKP to reach 60 per cent in local elections next spring, but that a worsening of economic conditions could threaten a new triumph for Mr Erdogan.
"People's prime concern is food on the table, a job and money," Mr Gur said. If the Turkish lira were to dramatically drop in value against the dollar and the euro, "the AKP will lose 15 per cent", he said. "It's that simple."
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By engaging in a bitter war of words with Turkey's largest media mogul, Aydin Dogan, Mr Erdogan has added to the growing unease.
"The problem is not the Islamic side of the AKP, let alone its liberalism, but rather its swing to Turkish politics as usual - a leader-dominated and nepotism-oriented structure that favours tension to reconciliation and machismo to civility," columnist Mustafa Akyol wrote in the Turkish Daily News, an English-language newspaper.
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ukraine
Capital: Kiev
Population: 44.13 million
Armed conflict in Donbass
Russia-backed fighters control territory
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Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
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Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
MATCH INFO
Kolkata Knight Riders 245/6 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 214/8 (20 ovs)
Kolkata won by 31 runs
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
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The Bio
Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959
Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.
He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses
Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas
His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s
Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business
He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery
Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
T20 World Cup Qualifier, Muscat
UAE FIXTURES
Friday February 18: v Ireland
Saturday February 19: v Germany
Monday February 21: v Philippines
Tuesday February 22: semi-finals
Thursday February 24: final
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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FIGHT CARD
1. Featherweight 66kg
Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg
Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg
Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg
Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg
Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg
Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg
Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg
Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)
9. Featherweight 66kg
Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Astra%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdallah%20Abu%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%20investment%20and%20development%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
